1. One Billion and Counting: The Hidden
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
One Billion and Counting: The Hidden
Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5
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2. World Population Trend
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
World Population Trend
Figure 5.4
The steep increase beginning around 1700 coincides with the beginnings of what historical period?
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3. Earth’s Population History
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Earth’s Population History
1 billion reached circa 1830
2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later)
3 billion reached circa 1929 (29 years later)
4 billion reached circa 1974 (15 years later)
5 billion reached circa 1987 (13 years later)
6 billion reached circa 1999 (12 years later)
7 billion reached circa 2011 (12 years later)
What is the present world population?
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4. World Population Trend
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
World Population Trend
Figure 5.1
When is the world population be expected to reach 8 billion?
Is the population increasing proportionately in all parts of the world?
What are some of the challenges of a growing population?
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5. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
P2 = P1 + B – D + I – O
Where: P1 = population in time 1
P2 = population in time 2
B = births
D = Deaths
I = in-migrants
O = out-migrants
Population Dynamics
In-migration is important for U.S. population growth, but is less critical for estimates in other countries. Why?
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6. Measures of Population Change
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Measures of Population Change
Figure 5.2
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Crude rate of natural increase
Why are these rates considered “crude”?
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7. Demographic Transition Model
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Demographic Transition Model
Figure 5.3
What the main causes of death in the US 200 years ago, and what did society do to address them?
Why does the fall in birth rates lag behind the fall in death rates?
Are there countries that do not fit this model very well?
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8. Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries
Table 5.1
Are there any countries still in Stage 1 of the demographic transition?
What other countries not shown would you expect to find in Stages 2, 3, and 4?
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9. Contrasting Demographic Transitions
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Contrasting Demographic Transitions
Figure 5.5
Why did the transition from high to low birth and death rates occur much more rapidly in India?
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10. Population Pyramids: Rapid Growth
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Population Pyramids: Rapid Growth
Figure 5.6
What do the left- and right-hand sides of each pyramid depict?
What do the center axis numbers refer to in each population pyramid?
What other countries are in the rapid growth category?
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11. Population Pyramids: Moderate and Slowing Growth
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Population Pyramids: Moderate and Slowing Growth
Figure 5.6
What countries are in the moderate (and slowing) growth category?
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12. Population Pyramids: Slow Growth
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Population Pyramids: Slow Growth
Figure 5.6
What countries are in the slow growth category?
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13. Population Pyramids: Population Decline
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Population Pyramids: Population Decline
Figure 5.6
What countries are in the population decline category?
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14. Elderly in Italy are 20% of the Total Population
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Elderly in Italy are 20% of the Total Population
Figure 5.7
What changes can we expect in Italy's population in the next half century?
What are some of the challenges of a shrinking population?
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15. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Make Your Own Population Pyramid:
Canada
Western United States
International
Create a population pyramid customized to your state / province / country.
Does this pyramid reflect your local reality in your experience? Why or why not?
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16. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Measures of Fertility:
Age-specific birth rate
Total fertility rate
Replacement fertility rate
Zero population growth
Compare and contrast “age-specific birth rate” with “crude birth rate.”
What is the range of total fertility rates around the world?
What is the mathematical definition of “zero population growth?”
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17. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Demographic Momentum:
Occurs in an age structure with a small base and a large top
Few elderly at the top
Many young who will be in reproductive years
Compare small number of elderly to large number of youth
What shape would a population pyramid be for a country with strong demographic momentum?
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18. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Name That Key Term
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19. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births in a year. Annual number of live births per 1,000 population. Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population. The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate. All individuals in a certain age range. The number of births to women in a certain age cohort divided by the number of women in that cohort.
Infant Mortality Rate Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) Crude Rate of Natural Increase Cohort Age-Specific Birth Rate
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20. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
The average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years assuming the current fertility rates of women across all ages. The fertility rate at which each female in a population produces on average one female baby who survives to the time when she herself can reproduce. A state in which the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate equals zero. The number of deaths exactly offsets the number of births. A state in which forces of change are in balance.
Total Fertility Rate Replacement Fertility Rate Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Equilibrium
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21. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
A model of population change from an equilibrium with high birth and death rates through a high-growth transition period in which death rates decline sooner than birth rates, to a new equilibrium with low birth and death rates. A graph showing the number of males and females in discrete age cohorts (age categories). Continued population growth long after replacement-level fertility rates have been reached. Scattered settlements of a particular national group living abroad.
Demographic Transition Model Population Pyramid Demographic Momentum Diaspora
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22. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5
Case Study
Activities
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23. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India4
After completing this chapter, you will be able to:
Relate the shape of population pyramids to a country’s birth, death, and growth rates.
Differentiate population pyramids of countries with rapid, slow, and negative population growth.
Understand the hidden momentum built into current population pyramids.
Recognize the hypothetical nature of population
projections.
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24. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Background on India
Figures 5.9 A & B
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25. Total Fertility Rate in India, 1971 to 2011
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Total Fertility Rate in India, 1971 to 2011
Figures 5.10
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26. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Infertility clinics like this one in New Delhi reflect India's shift away from coerced birth control to individual choices. While providing the opportunity for birth control to those who want it, some individuals such as those served by this clinic may be more concerned with the opposite problem—not being able to have any children.
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27. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Indian emigrants—diaspora around the world
Commonwealth country laborers
Remittances and development
Destinations today: U.S., Great Britain, Canada, Australia
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28. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Implications of population growth in India
Supplies of freshwater are stretched to the limit
Soil exhaustion and erosion
Cultivating low-lying, hurricane-prone islands
Overgrazing
Protein consumption is 20% below nutritional needs
Unable to provide social services and education
Makeshift housing in squatter settlements
Nonetheless, remarkable economic growth, large middle class, and leadership in the information economy
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29. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Figure 5.12
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30. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
There has been a substantial South Asian community living in South Africa for over a century.
Figure 5.13
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31. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Figure 5.14
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32. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Figure 5.15
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33. Activity 1: Matching Demographic Descriptions and Population Pyramids
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Activity 1: Matching Demographic Descriptions and Population Pyramids
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34. Activity 2: Demographic Momentum
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Activity 2: Demographic Momentum
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35. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Chapter 5: One Billion and Counting: The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth in India
Explain how it is possible for a population to continue growing for several generations after women begin averaging only two children each.
It may be particularly helpful to review your answers for Scenario 2 in Activity 2.
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