1. PROCESSES, CYCLES, AND POLICIES OF POPULATION CHANGE

2. A Population Explosion!
Worldwide Population Trends
Most recent figures
2002: Births & Deaths
Population growth?
Where does it occur?
Gender issues
Population Decline?
Europe vs. other countries
In a decade...

3. More Trends
21st Century Trends?
Base population
Growth Rates: a map

5. More Trends What does the map show?
Wide range of growth rates by region
India's growth rate decline
Africa's overall growth rate while still high is being impacted by the AIDS epidemic
Muslim countries
South Asia
China
South America
Location of slowest growing countries

6. Dimensions of population growth
Exponential not linear growth
Doubling time
Lessons from the population explosion

7. Early Warnings: Malthus
Thomas Malthus’ essay in 1798
Was Malthus Right?
Neo-Malthusians
Growing numbers
Malthus could not imagine current human suffering
Difficult to apply Malthus's ideas below the global scale

8. Population Structure Population pyramid
Broad-based vs. Narrow-based vs. rectangular

9. Demographic Cycles Demography: the study of population
Spatial component = population geography
Natural increase
Crude birth rate (CBR)
Crude death rate (CDR)
The Birth Rate
Fertility Rate
Death Rate

12. Past Population Change
Limits on population growth:
Epidemics and plagues
Famines
Wars wiped out population gains
Nature

13. Past Population Change
The Second Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution
Europe during the eighteenth century
Europe during the nineteenth century
Increasing population brought about emigration
European colonization

14. Demographic Change The three demographic variables: Births Deaths
Migration (immigration and emigration)

15. Demographic Transition
Four stages:
1) High stationary stage; 2) Early expanding stage; 3) Late expanding stage;
4) Low stationary stage
Demographic transition is represented by stages 2 and 3, during which high birth and death rates decline.

16. Demographic Change Developing countries Less advantages
Does everyone go through all four stages?
Some countries may have subsiding population growth without economic growth
Stationary population level (SPL)

17. POLICY RESPONSES TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

18. Role of the United Nations
Population conferences
Held every ten years
First held in 1974 in Bucharest
Second conference in 1984 in Mexico City
The 1994 Cairo conference
2004 conference

19. National Population Policies
Three groups of population policies
Expansion population policies
Eugenic population policies
Restrictive population policies
Limitations of policies?
Contradictions?

20. Three Case Studies Japan Expansion eras = several children encouraged
Growing urban centers reduced birth rate = stabilized
Post-World War II
Eugenic Protection Act, 1948
Abortions = decreased birth rate
1947 birth rate > 34 per 1000; 1957 = 18 per 1000
Governmental Action, 1991

21. Three Case Studies India
Will be the world's most populous country soon
Population > 1 billion
A culturally complex country
Population planning
1950s, limited funds
1960s, more money
A national program was instituted
Used advertising and persuasion
Some areas are progressing

23. Three Case Studies China Up to 1980s
In 1979 the government launched a policy inducing couples to have only one child
Penalties and hardships of the one-child policy
1984 rural relaxation
Results of party-imposed system breakdown
2000 growth rate < 1%
One-child policy has had a major social impact in a society where sons carry on the family name
Zero population growth policy
Emphasizes population dilemma depth

24. Policies Targeting Migration

25. Policies Targeting Migration
Control of immigration—legal and illegal—a hot issue around the world
U.S. actions?
California demands federal help to provide services for hundreds of thousand of illegal immigrants
Cuban refugees
Haitians were prevented from entering Florida
Arizona?? What are the issues?
Restricting migration is nothing new

26. Legal Restrictions United States: Australia: Other countries:
Oriental Exclusion Acts (1882­1907)
Restrictive legislation for Europeans, 1921
National Origins Law took effect in 1929
Modified after 1940
Refugees
Quota System: abolished in 1965
Australia:
1901 Immigration Restriction Act
Other countries:
South Africa
New Zealand
Brazil
South America in general

27. Resource Video: Rosling-3rdWorldMyth
A .zip file from the wonderful site:

28. Discussion How can we effectively manage population growth?
How can we effectively manage immigration (legal and illegal)?
Any ideas for migrant workers?