1. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 1 Chapter 8 Population and Development

2. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 2 Population and Development World population growth, 1980-2005, was 1.6% yearly, increasing the population from 4.4 billion to 6.5 billion. LDC population growth during the same period was 2% yearly.

3. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 3 Major topics  Rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs.  Demographic transition, death rates (DRs), & birth rates (BRs).  Malthusians vs. optimists on balance between population & economic growth.  Food-population balance.  Is population growth an obstacle to economic growth?  Population pyramids.  Reducing fertility.

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5. 5 Population growth in DCs & LDCs DCs & transitional economies < 0.8% yearly. Some East & Southeast Asian & Latin American economies 0.8-1.8% yearly. Most LDCs, especially sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia & Central America >1.8% yearly.

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8. 8 World Population Growth by Region  Africa 2000-25 projected 2.4% yearly growth (38 BR & 14 DR).  Latin America 2000-25 1.3% yearly growth.  Asia 2000-25 1.1% yearly growth.

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10. 10 World Population Growth Rate Decelerating 1960 to 2005 Growth 2.3% yearly at peak in 1960. Growth 1.3% 2005. Expected growth 0.8% in 2025. See Figure 8-4.

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12. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 12 What is the demographic transition? Period of rapid population growth between pre-industrial stable population (high BR & DR) and later modern stable population (low BR & DR). DR falls faster than BR, giving rise to population explosion.

13. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 13 Western & non-Western patterns After 1650, Western countries increased population more rapidly & steadily. 1930-2005 population growth rate declined. Except for China & Japan, non-Western countries did not experience population growth until after 1930.

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15. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 15 Stage 1: high fertility & mortality Most of humankind’s history. Lack of modern sanitation, medicine, industry, agriculture, trade, transport & communication. Self-sufficiency means food shortages disastrous. Fertility must match morality for populations to survive. Large families a blessing from God.

16. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 16 Stage 2: declining mortality Agricultural production increased – improved trade, transport, & communication. Death from infectious diseases declined. Nutrition improved. Patterns differ between early DCs & LDCs.

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19. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 19 Table 8-2 Life expectancy at birth Africa’s fall in life expectancy from the 1990s to the first decade of the 21 st century is an anomaly among LDCs. How do you explain this anomaly?

20. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 20 How do you explain Africa’s fall in life expectancy? Deaths from the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

21. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 21 Stage 3: Declining Fertility Family planning programs. World’s total fertility rate –the number of children born to the average woman during her reproductive years – 1968 (4.6), 1975 (4.1), 1987 (3.6), 1995 (3.1), 2003 (2.8).

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23. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 23 Stage 4: Stationary population (low DR & BR) Sweden, Austria, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, & Bulgaria.

24. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 24 Is Population Growth an Obstacle to Economic Development (Malthus vs. Simon) Malthusian view: population increases geometrically – 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc. outstripping food supply, increasing arithmetically – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Simon: more people increase the stock of knowledge through additional learning gains, compounded by the quickening effect of greater competition and total demand spurring “necessity as the mother for invention.” Division of labor & economies of large-scale production increase as markets expand. Recommends laissez-faire population policy.

25. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 25 Does this just reflect a shift from consumption of grain to other foods as income increases?

26. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 26 UN Development Program (2003:87)  If all the food produced worldwide were distributed equally, every person would be able to consume 2,760 calories a day (hunger is defined as consuming fewer than 1,960 calories a day)...  Hunger is more than just a lack of available food. It is a problem of deficiencies in food entitlement and deprivations in related essential services (health care, education, safe drinking water, adequate sanitation).

27. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 27 Energy limitations Substantial gains made in food productivity during the late 20 th century were partly dependent on cheap, abundant energy. Will higher real energy prices reduce further gains in food productivity?

28. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 28 What other costs are there to high fertility & rapid population growth other than diminishing returns to land? Urbanization & congestion. Rapid labor force growth & increasing unemployment (Ch. 9). Higher dependency ratios – ratio of nonworking population to working-age population (see next two slides).

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31. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 31 Econometric studies (p. 296) High fertility & rapid population growth hinder growth of GNP per capita.  Barro (1997) – increased resources devoted to child rearing instead of production contribute to negative relationship between population growth rate & GNP per capita.

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34. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 34 Previous slide (from p. 302) Poor people, poorly educated people, rural people, and those in agriculture have higher birth rates than others.

35. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 35 Population & development Bucharest conference – “Development is the best contraceptive.” Crucial role of education & labor force participation of women.

36. CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 36 Strategies for reducing fertility Birth control programs. Socioeconomic development. Development or family planning? - Both are essential to reduce fertility rates.