1. Page 1 Determinants Of Labour Market Conditions for Canadian Teachers Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC) Pan-Canadian Education Research Agenda (PCERA) Quebec, City May 22-23, 2001

2. Page 2 2 Outline of Presentation The Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS): Description, Mandate and Activities A Profile of the Teaching Occupations Key Economic Drivers and Their Implications for Labour Market Conditions of the Teaching Profession Summary of Current and Future Labour Market Issues

3. Page 3 3 What is the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)? Formed in 1982 following the key recommendation of the Dodge Task Force on Labour Market Development. Federal/Provincial/Territorial Partnership working together to produce Labour Market Information. Family of national and provincial models, monitoring and research activities.

4. Page 4 4 COPS Mandate Produce and disseminate timely, reliable, consistent and relevant current and forward-looking labour market information and research. Goal is to improve the transparency of the labour market (transitions) and thus improve the decision making process. –Transitions from school to work –Transitions from non-employed to employed –Transitions from job (career) to job (career)

5. Page 5 5 COPS Products and Activities Monitoring: –Provincial Monthly Labour Market Brief –Quarterly Labour Market Review Forecasting: –Industry/Occupational Pressures Research and Analysis: –Impact of Ageing –Determinants of Retirement –Determinants to Education –Economic Returns to Education –Job Quality –Occupational Monographs –Impact of Technology on the Labour Market –Model Development

6. Page 6 6 COPS Products and Activities (continued) Labour Market Information: –Job Futures –Youth Outlook Partnerships and Consultations: –F/P/T COPS Consultation Conferences –Regional COPS Workshops –F/P/T FLMM Participation

7. Page 7 7 2000 Teacher Profile Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

8. Page 8 8 Teaching Employment Levels Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000 ThousandsThousands

9. Page 9 9 Provincial Teacher Concentrations Source: 1996 Census %

10. Page 10 10 The Teaching Profession Has a Relatively High Proportion of Women Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey %

11. Page 11 11 Women in Teaching by Province Source: 1996 Census of Canada %

12. Page 12 12 An Above Average Proportion of University Teachers Work Part-Time Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000 %

13. Page 13 13 Part-Time Teaching Employment by Province Source: 1996 Census of Canada %

14. Page 14 14 On Average, Teachers are Older... Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000 42 40 41.8 38.2 Average Age %

15. Page 15 15 …and Retire Earlier Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

16. Page 16 16 Provincial Teaching Employment by Age Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2000 %

17. Page 17 17 Key Drivers of Labour Market Conditions for Teaching Occupations Demand –slower population growth - downward pressures on elementary secondary and upward pressure on post- secondary. – continued movement towards a knowledge based economy (KBE), upward pressures on post-secondary. –ageing workforce, upward pressures mainly at post- secondary level. –Specific provincial/field of study pressures (eg. Ontario’s double cohort or shortage of computer science professors).

18. Page 18 18 Key Drivers of Labour Market Conditions for Teaching Occupations (Continued) Supply –school leavers –immigration Other Issues –difficulty in attracting and retaining workers –working conditions –technology (eg. e-learning)

19. Page 19 19 As a result of lower fertility rate population growth will slow Average Annual Rate of Growth Source: Statistics Canada, HRDC ARB/PMEDS Projection %

20. Page 20 20 Relative Decline of Youth and Increase of Those Age 65+ Source: Statistics Canada, HRDC, ARB/PMEDS Projection %

21. Page 21 21 Elementary and Secondary Teachers (left axis) Elementary and Secondary Students (right axis) Thousands Millions Demographic Trends Will Exert Downward Pressure on the Employment of Elementary/Secondary Teachers Historical and projected number of elementary / secondary teachers and students Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario Number of teachers that would be required to maintain the students/ teachers ration at its 1984-2000 average

22. Page 22 22 Movement Towards Knowledge Occupations Will Continue (Average Annual Growth Rates) Source: COPS, 2001 %

23. Page 23 23 The population is becoming more educated Share of working-age population with a post-secondary diploma Historical Projected % Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Projections by Applied Research Branch

24. Page 24 24 College and Trade Students (right axis) College and Trade Teachers (left axis) Thousands The number of trade and college teachers is projected to continue to increase at a similar pace to that observed in recent years. Historical and projected number of college / trade teachers and students Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario Number of teachers that would be required to maintain the students/ teachers ration at its 1984-2000 average

25. Page 25 25 University Students (right axis) University Teachers (left axis) Thousands The number of university teachers is projected to increase after declining sharply in the late 1990s. Historical and projected number of university teachers and students Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Educational Administrative data, COPS reference 2000 scenario Number of teachers that would be required to maintain the students/ teachers ration at its 1984-2000 average

26. Page 26 26 Average Annual New Job Creation Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000

27. Page 27 27 Average Annual Retirements Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000

28. Page 28 28 Average Annual Supply of School Leavers to the Profession Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000

29. Page 29 29 Average Annual Supply of Recent Immigrants to the Profession Source: COPS National Model, Update 2000

30. Page 30 30 Specific Issues In Ontario, in September 2003, there will be a double set of high school graduates seeking seats in Ontario’s post-secondary institutions. This will put upward pressure on the demand for post-secondary teachers. Further, the May 2001 Ontario budget has proposed establishing a new university which will also put upward pressure on the demand for post-secondary teachers. Labour market conditions for specific field of study post- secondary teachers varies by discipline. For example, competition from the private sector is drawing current and potential teachers in the sciences, business and computer science from the education system.

31. Page 31 31 Summary of Current and Future Pressures Demographic –population age 5 to 18 is expected to grow marginally over the projection period which will dampen demand for elementary secondary school teachers. Alternatively, population age 19 to 29 is expected to grow which should stimulate the demand for post-secondary school teachers. Retirements –The education sector is older than most other occupations which coupled, with a lower retirement age, results in a large exodus from the profession.

32. Page 32 32 Summary of Current and Future Pressures (continued) Movement towards a KBE –strongest employment growth over the projection period is anticipated in occupations generally requiring higher levels of education. This movement is expected to further increase the demand for post-secondary school teachers. Limits to Supply Growth –difficulty in attracting and retaining teachers –competition from private sector

33. Page 33 33 Summary of Current and Future Pressures (continued) Other Factors Influencing Labour Market Conditions –working conditions are not seen as overly attractive although benefits and hours worked are felt to be a bonus –technology –distance learning –emigration as a result of the global market place –increased immigration increases the demand for ESL teachers