1. SAMI Consulting robust decisions in uncertain times 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk1 John Reynolds john.reynolds@samiconsulting.co.uk

2. Project for European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) http://osha.europa.eu http://osha.europa.eu –EU-OSHA’s role is to help improve working conditions in the European Union by providing technical, scientific and economic information to people involved in safety and health at work Working with the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) and Technopolis Group Project – “Foresight of New and Emerging Risks to Occupational Safety and Health Associated with New Technologies in Green Jobs by 2020” 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk2

3. Phase 1 (completed): Identification of key drivers of contextual change that could shape green jobs over the next 10 years Phase 2 (completed): Identification of key new technologies likely to impact on OSH in green jobs – negatively and positively Phase 3 (June 2011- March 2012):Development of plausible and consistent scenarios on how the key new technologies may evolve in the context of the changes induced by the key drivers and create emerging risks in green jobs by 2020 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk3

4. Wind Energy Construction Biotechnology/Bio-energy Waste and recycling Transport Manufacturing and robotics Energy –Domestic and small scale energy –Battery technology –Energy storage and recovery –Energy transmission Also horizontal technologies, e.g. nanomaterials 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk4

5. Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future Possible ‘paths’ to the future Based on an analysis of drivers of change Should be engaging, compelling and credible Must have internal logic and consistency Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated Not predictions or forecasts 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk5

6. 1.Economic Growth Growth In Europe Global Growth rates 2.Green Culture and Values Public Opinion Government Incentives and controls Energy Efficiency and Resource Use Waste Management and Recycling 3.Rate of Innovation in Green technology 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk6

7. 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk7 ScenarioWin – Win Bonus World Deep Green Economic Growth High Low Green ValuesStrongWeakStrong Rate of Innovation in Green Technologies HighMedium -Medium +

8. Green Values Economic Growth Deep Green Strongly green culture and values Bonus World Strong Growth Global and European Win - Win High Rate of Innovation in Green Technology Very Strong Low GrowthHigh Growth Weak 1/2/20128www.samiconsulting.co.uk

9. 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk9 For profit For Green Growth For Green Future

10. Green Values Economic Growth Very Strong Low GrowthHigh Growth Weak Deep GreenWin - Win Bonus World 101/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk

11. Defined by High economic growth Strong Green Values High rate of Innovation in Green Technologies 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk11

12. Green growth is sustainable. Green activities are seen as a major contribution to economic growth rather than simply as a cost Technology is delivering on its promise to make green growth achievable. 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk12

13. Growing public concerns over climate change and other environmental threats Mandate for deeply green legislation Green behaviour is strongly approved of Better models show how vulnerable the human race will be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services. 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk13

14. The trajectory of technology accelerates –More and more young engineers and scientists qualify around the world, –Developments are propagated immediately Technology has made green growth achievable. Most innovations use fewer resources and less pollution. Energy science continues to deliver The path to a zero-carbon future is now clear 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk14

15. Higher investments in safety and health Funds available to make infrastructure and business processes safer and more accessible. Environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular concern Many all-new green processes and enterprises, most of which require new OSH procedures and training 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk15

16. New jobs and new products may bring new hazards and risks at an ever-increasing speed. Rapid roll-out of new technologies and products mean that wider population may be exposed to any new hazards and risks in shorter timescales. OSH assessments needs to be done ever earlier in product development cycles –in order to catch issues before they have been rolled out globally. High pace of innovation is transforming the nature of work, with an equally transformative potential effect on OSH. 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk16

17. 171/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk

18. WIN-WIN The solar powered office buildings needed a lot of cleaning 1/2/201218

19. Defined by High economic growth Weak Green Values Medium rate of Innovation in Green Technology (directed towards profits) 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk19

20. People will choose the route of increased prosperity –when faced with the costs of going green. Technology is helping the world to be more efficient in its use of resources –but this efficiency merely translates into increased consumption Carbon emissions and resource use are still rising. –High resource price stimulate increased supply 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk20

21. Technology continues to advance, driven by the profit motive High levels of overall innovation High growth allows capital-intensive inventions to be implemented quickly. Energy sciences continue to deliver, –but it is not clear how or whether a zero- carbon future can be achieved without unacceptable compromises 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk21

22. Funds available to make infrastructure and business processes safer and more accessible. Rapid roll-out of new technologies / products –wider population exposed in shorter timescales. OSH is of relatively low priority for most governments. New jobs and new products may bring new hazards and risks. OSH is seen by most employers as important in term of its impact on profits OSH by regulation may be more effective than OSH by education 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk22

23. 231/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk

24. 241/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk

25. Defined by Low economic growth Strong Green Values Medium rate of Innovation in Green Technologies 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk25

26. A Green economy is achievable –but at the cost of economic growth. Sustainability and Greenness are valued by people more than economic growth Green activities are seen as a cost that needs to be borne. High taxes on pollution and carbon emissions Technology is helping to deliver a green future 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk26

27. Growing public concern over climate change and other environmental threats Mandate for green legislation Green behaviour is strongly approved of Better models show how vulnerable the human race may be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services Repeated resource shortages reinforce the need to be green 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk27

28. Technology continues to advance, driven by a desire to achieve sustainability Restricted levels of capital investment restrict the adoption of capital-intensive innovations Energy sciences continue to deliver –but it is now clear that low economic growth is necessary to achieve a zero-carbon future 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk28

29. Low growth may tempt employers to cut corners and makes investing in safer and healthier infrastructure more difficult Slower roll-out of some new technologies and new products gives more time to assimilate new hazards and new risks. Many all-new green processes and enterprises, all of which require new OSH procedures and training Environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular concern 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk29

30. 301/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk

31. 311/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk

32. 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk32 Pathways Win–WinBonus WorldDeep Green Amount of wind power Extensive Limited, depending on the price of energy Lots of wind power but less that Win– Win Locations Deep water offshore, in addition to traditional sites Onshore, closer to cities. Planning rules relaxed. Mostly Onshore Less ambition and less off-shore than Win–Win Turbines Up to 20MW Specialised marine designs. 5–7 MW Standard turbine designs to minimise cost per unit output 3-5MW Smaller turbines Grid connection Extensive interconnectors Continental supergrid Direct to connections to areas of greatest consumption Storage buffers rather than the Supergrid Existing wind farms Sites get repowered Decommissioning Issues Old turbines kept going as long as possible

33. New and emerging risk in each scenario are a combination of the different social and economic conditions with the respective technology pathway Scenarios have provided a framework for discussion between experts in technology and health and safety – leading to new insights Realisation that some technology pathways and targets are particularly scenario dependant Main health and safety implications to be reviewed at European workshop in March 1/2/2012www.samiconsulting.co.uk33