Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byNicholas Robinson Modified over 9 years ago
1
1 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Kevin J. O'Hara, President & COO Level 3 Communications
2
2 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Information Technology Marketplace Computing and information storage have improved exponentially Until recently communications has improved very slowly Central planning of key communications technologies has stifled innovation The advent of market based technical development has changed communications from a utility to a technology business –IP technology –Optical technology Cost Index 1980=1 Billion 0 1990198020002010 2020 1 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 Computing Communications Information Storage Level (3) Communications 1999
3
3 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The shift From Utility to Technology Model Has Significant Implications For The Communications Industry Rapid technical change has significant implications for the relationship between supply and demand New network designs are required to deploy the right combination of rapidly changing network components Rapid technical change has significant implications for the structure of the communication industry Level (3) Communications 1999
4
4 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Level 3’s Plan Construct upgradeable long haul and metro networks Develop industry-leading operational and product capability Introduce new technology and lower unit prices at rate which maximizes IRR Seek to achieve substantial market share in horizontal market segments Prefund expected cash requirements to free cash flow breakeven with appropriate cushion Level (3) Communications 1999
5
5 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Softswitch Services Graphic Addresses $700 billion voice market with IP economics Softswitch architecture enables rapid, long term cost and price reductions Services include (3)Connect SM Modem (3)Voice SM Level (3) Communications 1999
6
6 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. (3)Connect SM Modem Illustrates The Advantages Of The Level 3 Softswitch Network 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19981999200020012002200320042005 WorldCom Genuity Sprint ICG AT&T Other Level 3 Source: Level 3 Estimates % Market Share Level (3) Communications 2001
7
7 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Level 3 Genuity ICG Sprint Other Qwest AT&T MCI 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1998199920002001200220032004 % Market Share Source: Level 3 Estimates Impact Of Disruptive Technology/Economics Is Greater Than Anticipated
8
8 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. VOIP is Gaining Traction Due to Shifts in Market Forces n Broadband adoption n Improvements in technology n Lower cost n New features n Voice as digital media, separate from the network n Local voice services dominated by RBOCs, due to “last mile” n Long distance market dominated by IXCs and RBOCs n Opportunity for alternative providers to compete with RBOCs and IXCs for voice services Traditional Market Structure VoIP DriversVoIP Opportunity
9
9 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Sources: J.P. Morgan; UBS; Morgan Stanley; Leichtman; Gartner; Citigroup; Sanford Bernstein; FCC; Company SEC filings Growth in Cable and DSL Households Broadband Growth in the U.S. U.S. households, Million Cable and DSL Penetration Percent of total U.S. households 9.5% 27.5% Cable DSL Cable DSL
10
10 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Additional Access Options Absent alternative access methodologies incumbent access providers use bottleneck facilities as a governor on new service introduction But… Consumer broadband penetration approaching 30% Approximate 70% non-DSL WiMAX and BPL represent additional challenges to traditional structure
11
11 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Consumer VoIP Opportunity Consumers benefit from cost savings and enhanced features Cable Operators are pursuing VoIP as part of a triple play Enhanced Service Providers are providing voice “over-the- top” of existing broadband connections Vonage and Skype IXCs ISPs RBOCs are deploying VoIP services as a defensive measure
12
12 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Enterprise VoIP Opportunity Enterprises have historically maintained separate voice and data networks VoIP is enabling enterprises to converge these networks Enterprises can save up to 40% with VoIP services
13
13 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Market Size Estimates for VoIP Services are Accelerating (And may be under-estimated) Millions Of Subscribers
14
14 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. What Will It Take To Win In the New Industry Model? Applications Access Networks Backbone Networks Emerging Horizontal Industry Structure # Winning Players Attributes of Winners ■Many Best brand, content and end-user experience Services tailored to varied customer needs and channel preferences A few players are likely to dominate in each application (similar to non-network-based software) ■Few Large scale to cover high fixed capital and operating costs A number will exist in each market given varied customer preference for price points and capabilities (eg. bandwidth, QoS, mobility) ■Few High fixed capital & operating costs lead to few, large scale networks High traffic growth favors those with low cost, scalable networks and the financial flexibility to invest Growth in Applications favors backbone players with the network intelligence to distinguish between classes and quality of service.
15
15 2004 Level 3 Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Summary Voice as digital media, separable from the network, is a critical industry phenomenon Cash Flow impact to incumbents will cause structural change Individual winners and losers are hard to predict but… attributes for success in the future will be different from yesterday
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.