1. Fast forward your thinking to the Future Presented by: Meirion Thomas Observatory of Innovation Cardiff Business School

2. Where there is no vision, the people perish Proverbs 29:18 Why do we need to do futures?

3. For knowing afar of the evils that are brewing they are easily cured. But, when for want of such knowledge, they are allowed to grow until everyone can recognize them, there is no longer any remedy to be found. Machiavelli Why do we need to do futures?

4. To create the future, you must first of all be capable of imagining it. Gary Hamel Why do we need to do futures?

5. Those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future John F. Kennedy. Why do we need to do futures?

6. The future will be better tomorrow. Dan Quayle Why do we need to do futures?

7. We already have the statistics for the future: the growth percentages of pollution, overpopulation, desertification. The future is already in place. Günther Grass Is the future always about blue skies?

8. Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet Bruce Springsteen Is the future always about blue skies?

9. I have seen the future and it doesn't work. Robert Fulford Is the future always about blue skies?

10. The future ain't what it used to be. Yogi Berra Is the future always about blue skies?

11. We are living in the future I'll tell you how I know I read it in the paper Fifteen years ago. We're all driving rocket ships And talking with our minds And wearing turquoise jewellery And standing in soup lines John Prine The Future – 2010 etc??

12. There is a world market for about 5 computers Thomas J Watson, IBM The Future – 2010 etc???

13. What are we going to try to cover? What is futures? - & what is it not? Why use futures? Becoming literate in futures Trying out a few tools How to tell stories in futures.

14. Don’t confuse Futures with Foresight !! Imagination Prediction Fictions Facts What if..? What will..? Questions Answers

15. Why use futures? For business –Gain an appreciation of risk and opportunities –Underpin a corporate strategy –Inform investment decisions –Stimulate innovation …. For governments –Inform policy making –Early warning –Identify winners & losers –Inform investment decisions –Stimulate innovation Also.. –Team building –Professional and personal development –Stimulate personal and social innovation & action

16. Delphi exercises Horizon scanning Trends analysis Expert Groups Visioning Scenarios The Futures toolkit is a full one!

17. Getting started….. Become “literate” in futures “ Using concepts and techniques to help understand possible, probable and preferred futures” Get comfortable with concepts, tools and the outputs. Take small steps….. & manage expectations! You can use futures forward OR You can use futures backward

18. How did we get here? THE PRESENT THE FUTURE How do we go there?

19. Typically doing futures involves using a few key elements:  Trends  Weak Signals & Wild Cards  Drivers  Scenarios

20. Weak signals and Wild cards Weak signals are all around us…. Wild cards can be dealt at anytime Expect the unexpected!  Look for the unexpected  Accept surprises  Value originality  Think ‘outside the box’

21. Signals: Structures, relationships, symbols Patterns and Trends Events & facts The Weak Signals iceberg

22. Weak signals exercise Read Exhibit 1 & think about: What may it be telling us about possible future trends? What may drive these futures?

24. Creating Scenarios - Using drivers Drivers are trends; forces or assumptions about what will drive change over the near to mid term and affect the future A number of approaches are typically used: –Weak Signals –Literature reviews –Expert Groups –Focus Groups –Brainstorming –Delphi

25. How did we get here? THE PRESENT THE FUTURE How do we go there?

26. Creating scenarios – a futures forward approach Isolate the drivers Select the most uncertain & the most important Draw ‘cross hairs’ Describe the scenarios Pattern of political decision- making Devolved Household choices and needs Individual Centralised Collective AB CD Example: scenarios for future adaptation to climate change

27. Creating scenarios – a futures backwards approach Not as daft as it sounds! Companies have a mission Politicians have a vision Futures can help us analyse how to: 1.get where we want to be 2.identify what we need to do to get there 3.Identify what may prevent or hinder us.

28. Futures backward case study BMW is one of the regions of Ireland. In 2005 – it set out to create a fresh regional strategy Chose 4 desired futures – but they did not define them –Competitive region –Quality of life region –Innovative region –Knowledge region Set up 4 parallel processes – took 9 months to explore: –What the desired future would look like? –What factors or trends would drive the desire future? –What would the barriers be? –How could the drivers be embraced and barriers overcome?

29. Read the case study Think about: –What were the drivers and barriers that they identified? –Who were seen as the winners & losers? –What key decisions did they identify as being needed?

31. Telling the story effectively Story needs to be plausible & logical possible; credible; feasible; relevant 6 narrative tools to focus on: 1.Type of story – quest; drama; comedy of errors etc 2.Point-of-view – protagonist; narrator; reflector 3.Time frame – 5 years or 10 years; future forward; future backward 4.Protagonists – companies; sectors; regions; clients etc 5.Causal rules or the “logic” – political tradition; economic system; democracy & market forces etc 6.Enjoy the story and the process of writing it!!

32. Thank you for your attention Meirion Thomas Observatory of Innovation Cardiff Business School thomasm1@cardiff.ac.uk