1. A New Anthropogenic Emission Inventory System for Asia in Support of Atmospheric Modeling Qiang Zhang, 1 David G. Streets, 1 Kebin He, 2 Shekar Reddy, 3 Akiyoshi Kannari, 4 Il-Soo Park, 5 Joshua Fu, 6 and Zbigniew Klimont 7 1 Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, USA 2 Tsinghua University, Beijing, China 3 UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 4 Independent Researcher, Tokyo, Japan 5 Meteorological Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea 6 University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA 7 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria 6 th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, USA October 1-3, 2007

2. TRACE-P inventory for the year 2000: It’s now 2007, and we have learned a lot from its use! SO 2

3. Scope and methodology of a new, dynamic emission inventory dataset for Asia Updated inventory with improved methodology Incorporate from best available datasets Extrapolate from TRACE-P inventory

4. We develop a new Asia emission inventory dataset with improved methodology

5. Major improvements from TRACE-P Asia inventory l Detailed technology based approach l Dynamic methodology representing rapid technology renewal l Size-fractioned primary PM emissions l The best available national inventories incorporated l New VOC speciation methodology l Improved spatial allocation l Updated temporal profiles l Constraint from top-down method (inverse model/satellite)

6. We found that detailed characterization of technology is necessary to improve CO, PM, and HC emission estimates Good Efficiency Moderate Efficiency Poor Efficiency TRACE-P level of analysis Lime

7. We use a dynamic methodology to represent the rapid technology change in the last decade Emission factors could change very quickly with the fast technology renewal progress: trends of technology distribution and NOx emission factors in power plants

8. We have developed a technology-based PM emission model for China, as an extension of the RAINS-PM model

9. We first developed a size-fractioned PM emission inventory for China This PM inventory has been used in CMAQ for evaluating the regional impacts on Beijing air quality in support of Olympic plan High emitters around Beijing

10. The best available national emission inventory datasets are incorporated to our system 2003 SO 2 emissions for Korea (II-Soo Park) 2000 NO x emissions for Japan (Kannari et al., 2007)

11. We use a new VOC speciation methodology for better supporting air quality modeling l ~100 emitting sources l Fully coupled with SPECIATE 4.0 database l A few local VOC profiles are used l ~500 individual VOC species l Supported mechanisms: CBIV, CB05, SAPRC99, SAPRC07, RADM2, GEOS-CHEM l Providing gridded emissions by mechanisms directly, using a speciation/spatial allocation matrix approach

12. Updated temporal profile is developed using various local information, e.g., monthly profile of NO x emissions by sector

13. Local information is very helpful for improving spatial precision of inventories, e.g. NO x emissions from power plants Allocate by populationAllocate by unit information

14. The satellite-observed NOx emission increase in China could be directly verified by our high-resolution emission data Gg 2004 NOx – 2001 NOx, power plants 2001: 4.6 Tg-NO 2 2004: 7.1 Tg-NO 2, +54%

15. We are finishing a comparison of NO x emission trends in China between emission inventories and satellite imagery WINTER SUMMER The satellite and inventory trends agree well in the summer, but the satellite trend grows faster in the wintertime The bias in winter might come from a combination of Underestimate of seasonal variation in emissions, and Large error of satellite retrievals in winter Inventory: +57% Satellite: +108% Inventory: +62% Satellite: +67%

16. Our new CO inventory now agrees well with top-down estimates over East China region Source: Kopacz et al., 2007

17. Final product: gridded emissions over Asia at 30 min × 30 min resolution PM2.5, 2006 VOC, 2006

18. Our new emission estimates for Asia for the year 2006 are significantly higher than TRACE-P inventory for the year 2000 IMPORTANT NOTE: The emission changes between the two inventories reflect a combination of: (a) actual growth in emissions due to increasing economic development, (b) the effects of replacing the TRACE-P inventory by local inventories in several countries, and (c) improvements and corrections made to the original TRACE-P inventory. The changes should not be viewed solely as real emissions growth!

19. Data summary and availability l Data summary –Years: 2004, 2006 –Sectors: Power, Industry, Domestic, Transport –Species: SO2, NOx, CO, VOC, Primary PM, Hg, NH3, and CH4 –VOC speciation: SAPRC99, SAPRC07, CBIV, CB05, RADM2, GEOS-CHEM –PM speciation: TSP, PM10, PM2.5, BC, OC, Hg, Ca, and Mg –Grid size: 0.5 degree for whole Asia; fine grid emissions (0.1-0.2 degree) available for selected regions/sectors l Data availability –0.5 degree data for 2006 (with SAPRC99 speciation) are available at: http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/EMISSION_DATA_new/index_16.html http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/EMISSION_DATA_new/index_16.html –0.5 degree data with other speciation are generally open for community upon request (dstreets@anl.gov or zhangq@anl.gov)dstreets@anl.govzhangq@anl.gov –Fine grid emissions are available on a collaboration basis with the agreement of Chinese collaborators

20. Further reading for methodologies and numbers l Streets, D.G., J. Hao, Y. Wu, J. Jiang, M. Chan, H. Tian, and X. Feng (2005), Anthropogenic mercury emissions in China, Atmos. Environ., 39, 7789- 7806. l Streets, D.G., Q. Zhang, L Wang, K. He, J. Hao, Y Wu, Y. Tang, and G.R. Carmichael (2006), Revisiting China’s CO emissions after TRACE-P: Synthesis of inventories, atmospheric modeling, and observations, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14306, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007118. l Zhang Q., Streets, D.G., K. He, Y.X. Wang, A. Richter, J. P. Burrows, I. Uno, C. J. Jang, D. Chen, Z. Yao, and Y. Lei (2007), NOx emission trends for China, 1995-2004: The view from the ground and the view from space, J. Geophys. Res., in press l Zhang Q., Streets D.G., K. He, and Z. Klimont (2007), Major components of China’s anthropogenic primary particulate emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., submitted

21. Next step: provide high-resolution emissions by combining GIS information and county-level statistics 0.1 degree, without GIS information 0.1 degree, with GIS information 0.5 degree, without GIS information County emissions

22. Next step: develop a new multi-resolution emission model system for China (Argonne and Tsinghua)

23. Acknowledgements l USEPA, especially Dr. Carey Jang l NASA INTEX project l China National Basic Research Program (973) & National High-Technology Research Program (863) l Collaborators at Tsinghua University, China