2. A Longitudinal Analysis of the College Transfer Pathway at McMaster Karen Menard Ying Liu Jin Zhang Marzena Kielar Office of Institutional Research and Analysis, McMaster University 2 Pathways in Higher Education Conference, Toronto, January 27, 2012

3. Overview of the Literature College transfer students are disadvantaged in terms of degree attainment. The impacting factors are: Cultural Goal of education Education cost Social economic background 3

4. College transfer students are more likely to be non-traditional (older, part-time, commuter) More likely to drop out than traditional students Outside environmental factors play a more significant role than to traditional students 4 Overview of the Literature

5. Further factors affecting college transfer students: Challenges: academic standards, university size, location, and competition among students Opportunities: faculty/staff advice, career counselling, transfer readiness, and graduation requirements 5 Overview of the Literature

6. Research Focus 6 What are the differences between college transfer and direct entry What factors impact the progression of college transfer compared to direct entry Longitudinal perspective: factors affecting college transfer students

7. Methodology Eight cohorts of undergraduate students entering directly from high school and college (2000 - 2007) Each cohort followed from entrance to 2009/10 Both time-invariant and time-variant variables are included 7

8. Potential Impacting Factors 8 – Cohort year – Student source (college transfer vs. direct entry) – Age entering institution – Gender – Registration status (full-time vs. part-time) – Immigration status – Major of study – Home province – Marital status – Average grade – Student loans – Student grants Time invariant variables Time variant variables

9. Demographic Distribution of Data 9

10. Progression Status as of 2009 10

11. Graduation by Term Distribution 11

12. Probability of Persistence 12 Direct Entry College Transfer

13. What are the differences between college transfer vs. direct entry 2000 to 2006 cohort (followed for at least 4 years) 1612 from college, 28680 direct from high school Multinomial logistic regression model Dependent variable: student outcome with three nominal categorical levels: graduation, dropout, and persistence (reference level) Tested various models Model: further control gender, admission average, and financial support 13 (1)

14. Results Students with any of following features are more likely to graduate: Younger students Female Full-time From Ontario Receiving higher amount of loan Higher session average grade College transfer Model global test: Χ 2 (LR)=14331, df=52, p<0.0001, Pseudo R 2 =34.3% 14

15. Major factors affecting college transfer students over time 1903 from college (2000 to 2007 cohorts) Time variant discrete proportion hazard models Events: graduation and dropout, persistence as right censoring Dependent variable: number of registered terms Independent variables: all 12 variables including time variant ones 15

16. 16 – Cohort year – Student source (college transfer vs. direct entry) – Age entering institution – Gender – Registration status (full-time vs. part-time) – Immigration status – Major of study – Home province – Marital status – Average grade – Student loans – Student grants Time invariant variables Time variant variables

17. College transfer students are more likely to drop out if they have the following features: Older Part-time Low session average grade Majored in specific areas When separating full-time and part-time, age does not affect part- time dropout Model global test: Χ 2 (LR)=718, df=25, p<0.0001, Pseudo R 2 =7.9% 17 Results

18. Summary of Findings More college transfer students were part-time and they were older on average Overall graduation rate of college transfer students was lower and dropout rate was higher than direct entry students 18

19. However A young college transfer student who enrolls in full-time status is as likely to graduate as a direct entry student Further control other variables, college transfer students are more likely to graduate than direct entry students College transfer students with lower grades are less likely to graduate 19

20. Implications Academic performance is nevertheless a very important impacting factor Age and registration status causes the retention issues through many mediating factors Ensure the appropriate institutional supports (student services, academic, etc) for university Policies need to support program transfers and collaborative programs 20

21. Thank You A Modeling Degree Attainment of College Transfer Students at a Four-year Canadian Institution Abstract is available upon request Email: avpira@mcmaster.ca 21