1. 1 Expect The Best Dan Borchert- Entomologist USDA/APHIS/PPQ/CPHST/PERAL Raleigh, NC http://www.nappfast.org

2. 2 Expect The Best NAPPFAST System Overview Internet-based Pest Prediction System Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection, or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate database (~2000 stations in NA) Produce geo-referenced output maps Designed to assist pest survey detection efforts: predict when and where

3. 3 Expect The Best Modeling- Point to Consider “ A model is always wrong, but it can help you see the truth” Dr. Fred Gould William Neal Reynolds Professor North Carolina State University Entomology Department

4. 4 Expect The Best The Purpose of NAPPFAST To assist the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) Program determine where and when to survey for invasive pest species To provide information on pests (potential distribution etc.) for risk assessment purposes To assist APHIS by providing relevant information in Emergency Response situations

5. 5 Expect The Best Degree Day Model: Theory “Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976) Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shape Dev. Temp.

6. 6 Expect The Best Multi-function Model Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and mathematical equations: (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)  Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates

7. 7 Expect The Best

8. 8 Infection Model Plant pathologist describe interactions between pathogen, host and environmental conditions as the disease triangle.

9. 9 Expect The Best Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture (Magarey et al. 2005, Yin et al. 1995, Wang and Engel, 1998) Generic infection model

10. 10 Expect The Best NAPPFAST Summary NAPPFAST is a flexible easy to use system with the ability to map multiple organisms Combines simple models with large amounts of high quality data Model Output is exportable (Geo-tiff) for easy incorporation with other types of Geo- referenced data/Spatial analysis Development of Global climate data and additional tools/capabilities will improve the system

11. 11 Expect The Best NAPPFAST and Spatial Analysis Dan Borchert- Entomologist USDA/APHIS/PPQ/CPHST/PERAL Raleigh, NC

12. 12 Expect The Best Terms and Definitions GIS: Geographic Information System an analytic framework for managing and integrating data; solving a problem; or understanding a past, present, or future situation. GPS: Global Positioning System is a worldwide radio-navigation system formed from a constellation of 24 satellites and their ground stations Spatial Analysis: Area of GIS that utilizes multiple methods, from simple to complex

13. 13 Expect The Best The Real Life Very Hungry Caterpillar Light Brown Apple Moth, Epiphyas postvittana Feeds on: Apple, Citrus, Tomato, Grape, Potato, Strawberry, Peach, Carrot, Beans, Broccoli, Pears, many forest types (HUNDREDS of hosts) Recently detected Can we make a risk map to assist in management efforts? Quickly?

14. 14 Expect The Best Counties with Apples Grown

15. 15 Expect The Best Counties with Pears Grown

16. 16 Expect The Best Counties with Plums Grown

17. 17 Expect The Best Counties with Strawberries Grown

18. 18 Expect The Best Counties with Citrus Grown

19. 19 Expect The Best All Commodities Added + +++

20. 20 Expect The Best LBAM Host Density

21. 21 Expect The Best Are Hosts the Only Answer? Do we need to account for pest biology in addition to host? How can that be accomplished? Biological event modeling such as Degree day or infection

22. 22 Expect The Best Five Generations Averaged

23. 23 Expect The Best Standardized Global Plant Hardiness Zones

24. 24 Expect The Best LBAM Risk Map

25. 25 Expect The Best Observed distribution of Kikuyu grass observations (GBIF green points; literature records black diamonds) Kikuyu Grass

26. 26 Expect The Best NAPPFAST Climate Match for Kikuyu Grass Kikuyu Grass

27. 27 Expect The Best Spatial modeling as a PRA Tool The information (data) is becoming more readily available in spatial format The ability to combine and utilize multiple types of data for decision support and analysis is a rapidly developing technology The ability to view data in a spatial context aids in rapid understanding

28. 28 Expect The Best Questions? Dan Borchert 1730 Varsity Dr. Suite 300 daniel.m.borchert@aphis.usda/gov