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Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 1/14 NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013 Hendrik L. Tolman and Avichal Mehra

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Presentation on theme: "Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 1/14 NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013 Hendrik L. Tolman and Avichal Mehra"— Presentation transcript:

1 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 1/14 NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013 Hendrik L. Tolman and Avichal Mehra Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov Avichal.Mehra@NOAA.gov

2 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 2/14 NOAA - Navy  Commonalities Need of eddy-resolving global model capabilities, particularly at weather time scales.. Joint development work.  Differences: Mission  Public versus internal.  Weather-interactions etc. versus acoustics etc.  Other collaboration: NOAA as portal for Navy data. Potential for mutual backup (not set up formally yet). Leveraging of development (HYCOM – NOPP – ESPC).

3 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 3/14 Navy - NOAA  HYCOM (RTOFS at NOAA and GOFS at Navy) used at OPC, NHC and WFOs for marine services. Used by NOS for boundary data. NOAA will have to transition to GOFS 3.1. HYCOM in RTOFS at NOAA.  Forecast model operational at NCEP since.  Signed MOU on transitioning NCODA to NCEP.  NCEP presently relying on Navy NCODA results.  Need to transition to GOFS 3.1 with different number of vertical levels.

4 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 4/14 NCEP Oceans  Five major efforts: Eddy resolving ocean modeling. Eddy resolving ocean initialization. Coupled modeling for hurricanes. Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS. Episodic tracers (with shelf life) All RTOFS models based on the community HYCOM model, NCEP and Navy are part of the HYCOM consortium. RTOFS-Global RTOFS-Atlantic Operational 2005 Operational 10/25/2011 RTOFS-HWRFLive testing RTOFS-NEMSUnder development RTOFS-ET-Pac Operational 07/24/2012

5 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 5/14 NCEP Oceans  Seasonal and inter annual effort: GODAS and MOM4 in present NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFVv2). This is a collaboration with NOAA / OAR / GFDL, and will not be discussed in detail here.

6 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 6/14 RTOFS-Global Push to global model (vs. regional models):  Satisfy requirements from NOAA SAB (2004).  Provide BC for regional models (HWRF, NOS, IOOS). Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP).  GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle). Timeline:  Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVO (NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO).  FY2012: Upgrade products, analyze forcing.  FY2015: full initialization at NCEP. Strong collaboration with Navy.  Accelerated implementation by estimated 10 years, using half the annual resources (HR) otherwise needed.  Now with MOU on NCODA at NCEP.

7 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 7/14 RTOFS-Global

8 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 8/14 RTOFS-Global  EMC became US government lead on ocean plume modeling for Fukushima ocean contamination. Collaboration in large Interagency work group. Leveraging modeling from Navy, DTRA, NOS.  NCEP Navy model data distribution point. CONOPS to rapidly generate actionable information for decision makers.  Product 1: Surface particle tracing to identify potentially contaminated areas.(April 6, 180 d)  Product 2: Contamination estimates using particle tracing + HYSPLIT atm. Deposits.(April 20, 180 d)  Product 3: Full dispersion model as passive decaying tracers, using direct release (NOS) and atm. deposit (NCEP)(In operations at NCO, shelf live)

9 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 9/14 RTOFS-Global Enabling Fukushima response http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/plume http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/tracers Discontinue Dec 31, 2013

10 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 10/14 RTOFS-HWRF  Ongoing experiments Real time parallel runs since 2009. Tentatively to operations in 2014: Navy collaboration through HFIP – NOPP by building generic coupler for atmosphere – wave – ocean.  COAMPS-TC / HWRF  SWAN – WAVEWATCH III – UMWM  NCOM – HYCOM (RTOFS) TPC JTWC / ITOP

11 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 11/14 RTOFS-NEMS Working on 0.25 degree HYCOM for coupling to weather models (GFS, CFS). Model setup and free runs successful. Climatological flux bias corrections successful. Loose collaboration on forcing with NRL-Stennis. Climatological run, no flux correction Same but with flux correction Interannual run, 1993-2009

12 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 12/14 Wind waves  WAVEWATCH III model developed at NCEP, but now one of the leading community models. NRL-Stennis and NRL-Monterey actively involved in development for several years. FNMOC operational for more than a decade. Joint development for hurricanes with FNMOC. NAVO transitioning from WAM to WAVEWATCH III. NOPP project on next generation wave model physics with many partners:  NOAA / Navy (NRL-Stennis), USACE, BOEM.  Teams from Australia, France, Netherlands, Canada and US. Other partners in development include MetOffice and BoM.

13 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 13/14 Wind waves  FY 2011 Joint FNMOC – NCEP wave ensemble.  NUOPC-NAEFS.  Much improved products on 00z and 12z cycles. FY2014:  Add members from Environment Canada.

14 Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 14/14

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