1. Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE) and its “so-called” sentinel lakes Ray Valley and Don Pereira

3. THE “So-Called” CONTEXT

5. If we rely on speculation regarding why this lake is impaired rather because we don’t have long-term datasets, we occupy the invisible present

6. If we focus exclusively on what we can put in the lake to “clear it up” and not deal with watershed-scale impacts, we occupy the invisible place

7. SLICE - Revealing the Invisible Present and Place

8. The Sentinel Lakes

9. Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The So What – Preliminary Findings The So What – Preliminary Findings

10. Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The So What - Lessons learned The So What - Lessons learned

11. “Glacieresque” Transformations of the 21 st Century

12. Shoreline Transformations Source: Startribune

13. Watershed Transformations

14. Hydrological Transformations

15. Human accelerators of species spread

16. Climate Change J. Jaschke

17. Scheffer and Carpenter 2003 Cumulative impacts of stressors System “state” Consequences on Resilience Cumulative impacts of stressors Stressors to watersheds Ditching, draining, channeling, Impervious surface Withdrawing & damming Alterations to lakes Overharvest/Overstocking Removal of structure Disturbance from watercraft Time Lags Hysteresis – “can’t go back” Positive feedbacks

18. Reality Bites! In a lot of systems there’s no “going back.” Our expectations and management approach for these systems should be different for systems largely “intact”

19. Enter SLICE – informing expectations and appropriate mgt responses We ask: 1. In highly altered systems, how can we realistically improve water quality and provide a self-sustaining recreational fishery? 2. In high integrity systems, what watershed and in-lake factors are contributing to their resilience, and how can we keep those resilience mechanisms intact? 3. Early Detection and Rapid Response indicators What indicators tell us “all is not well” and indicate whether our responses are making a difference?

20.  Program aims to:  Timely detect change to habitat conditions and species population communities  Understand and project what is/will come into our lakes (watershed modeling)  Understand and project the ultimate fate of external and internal loads (limnological modeling)  Facilitate structured decision- making and adaptive management Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE)

21. Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The So What - Lessons learned The So What - Lessons learned

22.  Phase 1 (Pilot; 2008- 2011):  Pilot phase  Establish network of sentinel lakes  Partnership and infrastructure building  Independent research projects to assess specific questions  Indicator ID Eating the elephant one bite at a time! chrisnierhaus.com

23. Economists use a large number of indicators to gage the “health” of the economy

24. Lakes should be no different Maximum depth of vegetation growth Maximum depth of vegetation growth Growing Degree Days Growing Degree Days Temperature at Dissolved Oxygen = 3 mg/L Temperature at Dissolved Oxygen = 3 mg/L Density of Daphnia > 1 mm long Density of Daphnia > 1 mm long Fish Index of Biotic Integrity Fish Index of Biotic Integrity Proportion of lake volume conducive to growth of coolwater fish Proportion of lake volume conducive to growth of coolwater fish Proportion of warm water species guilds in net catches Proportion of warm water species guilds in net catches Total Phosphorus Total Phosphorus Frequency of occurrence of curly-leaf pondweed Frequency of occurrence of curly-leaf pondweed Catch per effort of common carp Catch per effort of common carp Bluegill age at maturation Bluegill age at maturation Catch per effort of large largemouth bass Catch per effort of large largemouth bass Proportion of microcystis algae to chl a Proportion of microcystis algae to chl a Proportion of lake volume that is hypoxic Proportion of lake volume that is hypoxic Aquatic Plant Index of Biotic Integrity Aquatic Plant Index of Biotic Integrity Secchi water clarity Secchi water clarity

25.  Phase 1 (Pilot; 2008- 2011):  Pilot phase  Establish network of sentinel lakes  Partnership and infrastructure building  Independent research projects to assess specific questions  Indicator ID  Phase 2 (2012-2016)  Using lessons learned in Pilot to guide operational program Eating the elephant one bite at a time! chrisnierhaus.com

26. Adaptive Management Process Assess problem Evaluate Adjust Implement Design Monitor Phase 1: Oct – Jan 2006/2007 May-Jun 2007 Apr. 2008 2008-2011 Phase 2 Phase 1 Op plan

27. Experimental Design

28. Three R’s of Statistical Study Design Realism Randomization Representation Population Sample Inference

29. Objective of SLICE: Annual inference of status and trends in lake indicators at the Landscape Scale

30. SLICE Design = “Split-Panel” SLICE Design = “Split-Panel”

31. Panel 1: Sentinel Lakes (2008 - ) = The network of sentinel lakes Year 1 3 2 5 4 7 6 8 Stratified sampling design Figurative Approach: “6-in wide, 1 mile deep” Monitoring system-wide changes at a fine temporal resolution in a small number of systems spread across the state Tracking coherent dynamics (e.g., are things behaving similarly across large scales?) Cause-effect inference Forecast modeling w/ cont. verification

32. Panel 2: “Random” surveys (2013 - ) Year 1 3 2 5 4 7 6 8 Stratified – Random (Strata = Landtype) Approach: “1 Mile-wide 6” deep” Focus is on maximizing lakes sampled, minimal time spent at each one. Combination with Sentinel panel is powerful for robust inference of status across time and space Will focus on utilizing datasets from other ongoing monitoring programs = Group of Lakes

33. Sentinel Lake Selection

34. 1. Landtype x 4 Sentinel Lake Selection intent: evaluate status and trends over a gradient of lake conditions 2. Mixing x 2 3. P-Concentration x 3

35. Other considerations with final candidate pool PCA “reference” lake PCA “reference” lake Other historical datasets Other historical datasets Paleolimnology Paleolimnology Rich lake survey history Rich lake survey history Unique partnership opportunities Unique partnership opportunities Active local water monitoring programs Active local water monitoring programs

36. Sentinel Lake Characteristics (ranges) MinMax Watershed Size (acres)278595,864 Lake Size (acres)915,047 Lake Max Depth (ft)11208 Avg Total P (ppb)6 (O)278 (HE) Avg Secchi (ft)219 GS Length 2009 (d > 5C)185236 Avg. Epi Summer Temp (C)18.422.1 Alkalinity (mg/L CaCO 3 )13317 # on 303d impairment list6

37. Talk Outline The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The How - Data collection activities and partnerships The So What - Lessons learned The So What - Lessons learned

39. What we’re measuring Fish Aquatic Plants

40. Research Questions & Partnerships Merging of aspects of DNR, PCA, and SNF lake survey programs (operational funds) Merging of aspects of DNR, PCA, and SNF lake survey programs (operational funds) Super-sentinel research Super-sentinel research “What if” modeling of landscape and climate change on water quality and oxythermal habitat in three lakes (Carlos, Elk, Trout) “What if” modeling of landscape and climate change on water quality and oxythermal habitat in three lakes (Carlos, Elk, Trout) ENTF funded w/ USGS match ENTF funded w/ USGS match USGS (PI Dr. Richard Kiesling) USGS (PI Dr. Richard Kiesling) Reconstruction of water quality and correlations to past climate cycles and land use changes Reconstruction of water quality and correlations to past climate cycles and land use changes Cold water sentinel lakes Cold water sentinel lakes SCWRS (PI Dr. Mark Edlund) SCWRS (PI Dr. Mark Edlund) ENTF funded ENTF funded

41. Research Questions & Partnerships Cisco population assessment methods and biology Cisco population assessment methods and biology Evaluation of hydroacoustic sampling tools Evaluation of hydroacoustic sampling tools UMD (PI Dr. Tom Hrabik) UMD (PI Dr. Tom Hrabik) ENTF funded ENTF funded Indicator research project Indicator research project signal:noise ratio signal:noise ratio best survey methods for robust snapshot of status best survey methods for robust snapshot of status Aspects of entire lake ecosystem measured Aspects of entire lake ecosystem measured Game and Fish Fund, Fed-Aid reimbursement Game and Fish Fund, Fed-Aid reimbursement

42. “If you build it, they will come” A platform for interdisciplinary study of lakes A platform for interdisciplinary study of lakes Independent “off-shoot” projects focused on: Independent “off-shoot” projects focused on: Cold-water fish and habitat Cold-water fish and habitat Historical reconstructions of water quality and zooplankton Historical reconstructions of water quality and zooplankton Zooplankton patterns Zooplankton patterns Groundwater-surface water interactions Groundwater-surface water interactions  “Free” Analysis off of our “Free” data  Projects, investigators, lakes involved, and contact info is being tracked on SLICE web page

43. Serendipity: Curly-leaf pondweed case study Been here for 100 years Widespread throughout S and central MN and moving north. Grows under ice and needs some winter light Can grow abundantly and form mats early in spring in nutrient-rich lakes In warm nutrient-rich lakes, dies off by early summer and algae blooms typically follow. Expected to benefit from shorter winters and earlier springs

45. Growing Degree Days Departure from Normal Expectation: 2010 should have been a gangbuster CLP year

46. WRONG!

50. In Conclusion… SLICE is unveiling the invisible present and place SLICE is unveiling the invisible present and place Preparing for rather than reacting to change Preparing for rather than reacting to change Situational awareness – detecting change quickly and the scale its occurring Situational awareness – detecting change quickly and the scale its occurring Sentinel Lakes as ongoing sites of learning and a platform for interdisciplinary explorations Sentinel Lakes as ongoing sites of learning and a platform for interdisciplinary explorations

51. Funding and Partners