1. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Structural change, cluster policy and the role of foresight Michael Guth ZENIT GmbH, Germany mg@zenit.de

2. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Structural change, cluster policy and the role of foresight 1.Why do we do Foresight? What do we mean by FS? 2.Towards a new regional innovation policy in Nordrhein-Westfalen: the role of FS

3. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium to long long term vision building process aimed at present day decision and mobilising joint actions. IPTS (2001), A practical guide to regional foresight (http://foren.jrc.es) A Definition Foresight

4. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW FS Learning Innovation Why Foresight? process orientation Networking Participation FSSystem enhancing effects

5. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW l Can FS be a useful tool to develop and to conduct a competence field orientated regional policy in NRW ? l What steps have been taken so far? The role of foresight in CFs

6. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Competence Fields + Foresight = Prosperity ? Challenges l FS exercises help industrial regions to build up new structures for communication and interaction amongst the actors l FS thus directly contributes to the emergence of regional innovation and learning systems (RILS); regional learning and innovation is the basis for future prosperity and growth

7. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW What has been done in NRW so far? Concrete Steps l Identification of competence fields (or potential CFs) -> 12 CFs for the Ruhr area l Currently: analysis of CFs in the whole Land l Pilot Project Foresight in metal cluster Duisburg l Participation at the European Blueprints for FS initiative l 2005: series of scenario workshops in 3-5 CFs (planned)

8. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Objectives of the FS project in the metal cluster Metal cluster Duisburg l Identification of future trends l Fostering the network dynamics at local level l Improving the links between policy, industry and university (three helix, systemic approach)

9. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Main steps Metal cluster Duisburg 04/01 study on competence fields in the Ruhr area (including: innovative materials) 11/01 city of Duisburg: study about innovative materials as competitive factor 05/02 start of the foresight project 11/02 - 03/03 FS workshops Since 03/03 3 Main working groups 08/04 Vision building workshops 12/04 Project ends

10. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Preliminary results Metal cluster Duisburg l Identification and description of key competences and deficits (bottle-necks) l Identification of major trends with significant impact to Duisburg l Formulation of concrete measures (better information flows, industry university cooperation in apprenticeship)

11. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Findings Metal cluster Duisburg l FS can strengthen network building (but basis should be there) l Need for a driver of the process l Sustainability questionable! l Management of the FS process needs additional resources (man-power, money); not top on normal work l FS build trust and social capital (difficult to start from the scratch need for pre-FS process)

12. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Foresight, Competence fields and Innovation A new policy vision Individual Learning Inter-Institutional Learning Institutional Learning Institutional Learning triggers Competence Fields Regional Innovation System Foresight

13. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Some general considerations (1/2) Challenges l Old industrial regions generally suffer from a decline in previously pre-dominant economic activities in the region l Need to identify alternative income and employment opportunities as a policy challenge l In the Knowledge economy innovation performance and economic prosperity increasingly depend on the regions' capacity to successfully organise learning processes

14. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Some general considerations (2/2) Challenges l The interaction induced by FS exercises is very similar to both learning and innovation processes l FS fertilises learning and innovation and vice versa l Policy should thus increasingly exploit synergies between regional innovation systems and FS l FS drives cluster building! l BUT: FS is not a panacea!

15. Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW Thank you very much for your attention! Michael Guth ZENIT GmbH mg@zenit.de