1. How Humans Impact Earth’s Radiation Balance Global Warming Ozone Layer Destruction

3. Greenhouse Gases (like carbon dioxide) are like a rechargeable battery for heat

4. Global Warming: A Preview in Classroom Resource Movies

6. What are greenhouse gases?

7. Always ask in climatic change: What has happened in the past?

9. Eocene Warmth

10. Eocene Arctic was ice free …

11. Ice Age Fluctuations: Never above 300 ppm (parts per million)

12. Classroom Resources

13. CO 2 helped warm Ice Age Earth

14. Warming continued as civilizations flourished in the Holocene (last 10,000 years), then cooled with the sun in the Little Ice Age

15. Warm Periods in the Holocene were wetter in Monsoon Asia

16. Big Questions over Trends and whether natural or human caused

17. Classroom Resource: Why is the Starting point 100 years ago? Industrial revolution? or After Little Ice Age?

18. Graphs starting point

19. Change from Little Ice Age and lower Solar Output?

20. Story is complicated by type of radiation

24. Wild cards: organic & inorganic aerosols (dust, pollution) cooling influence

25. So what happens if coal pollution is reduced?

26. Will we get complacent in the next century, causing massive trouble in 50 years?

27. Predictions Vary

28. How much of the warming is due to “urban heat island”?

30. Where are the thermometers? Rural Kitt Peak Urban growth Phoenix

32. Always the problem: sorting out cause (GHG, Solar, Urban) from the effect (warming in some places)

33. Satellite Record: least bias Red line (used to be no evidence of warming) Blue & Green (lower and middle troposphere) – warming is evident, but is it natural or us?

34. Potential Impacts: There will be Winners and Losers, just VERY hard to predict with models (good to try, just nobody really believes them)

35. Winner: Plant Productivity

36. Plants love elevated CO 2

37. Winner: longer northern growing seasons for wheat

38. Winner: India avoids drought from Cool Earth

39. Long Record Warm Earth Favors Wetter Asian Monsoon

40. Winner: More Tropical Rain

41. Loser: the Arctic (Classroom Resource Movie)

42. Loser: close to shore

43. Compilation and Analysis in Science – October 2005 Read scale: centimeters

44. So why show Florida under water?

45. Real Evidence: Not sure if big ice sheets are melting

46. Stakes are high for low-lying places

47. Agriculture: Predictions of Losers in Lower Latitudes

48. Other possible effects (written by those favoring a need for quick action)

49. “... climate models give no consistent indication whether tropical storms will increase or decrease in frequency or intensity as climate changes; neither is there any evidence that this has occurred over the past few decades.” IPCC, 1990 (p. xxv) “Changes globally in tropical and extra-tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by inter- decadal and multi-decadal variations, with no significant trends evident over the 20 th century.” IPCC, 2001, p. 5 More Hurricanes? “Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.” IPCC, 2007, p. 6

50. “Overall, there is no evidence that extreme weather events, or climate variability, has increased in a global sense, through the 20 th century, although data and analyses are poor and not.” “Overall, there is no evidence that extreme weather events, or climate variability, has increased in a global sense, through the 20 th century, although data and analyses are poor and not comprehensive.” Houghton et al., 1996, IPCC, p. 173

51. "We are becoming more vulnerable to natural disasters because of trends of our society rather than those of nature. In other words, we are placing more property in harm's way." van der Vink et al., 1998, EOS, p. 537

52. Extreme chance: Reduce Gulf Stream

53. Not tomorrow!

54. What to do? Set policies by governments? Make personal choices (my choice is to hang laundry on the line, ride my bike, use evaporative cooler) save money, while reducing my contribution to GHG Ask China and other societies not to industrialize? China generates more GHG than USA! Great setting for classroom lessons

55. Classroom Resource

56. Extreme Solution

57. It all comes down to Keeping Earth’s radiation in balance

58. Time Special Report Understand difference between science & media spin

59. Human Impact on Radiation Balance Ignored by the Media: Ozone Crisis

60. Why media ignores? Fear of chemistry?

61. Or not understand completely different problems?

62. Positive Feedback Started Buildup

63. Ozone Still Made in Lower Latitudes

64. Classroom Resource

65. First question: has Earth’s biosphere survived past reduction in ozone?

66. Classroom Resource

67. Fear is damage by UV radiation

68. What’s the crisis? We add more chlorine to the stratosphere

69. Classroom Resources

70. Polar Stratospheric Clouds Key Classroom Resource

71. Creates Antarctic Ozone Hole

72. Classroom Resources

73. Keeps getting worse

74. Arctic less problematic because warmer (less polar stratospheric clouds) – except in cold years

75. We add other ozone-destroying agents

76. Politics & predictions ignore legal and illegal cheating

77. Imagery seen in this presentation is courtesy of Ron Dorn and other ASU colleagues, students and colleagues in other academic departments, individual illustrations in scholarly journals such as Science and Nature, scholarly societies such as the Association of American Geographers, city,state governments, other countries government websites and U.S. government agencies such as NASA, USGS, NRCS, Library of Congress, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service USAID and NOAA.