1. Current Trends of Change in the Population of Texas Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. State Demographer of Texas Director, Texas State Data Center University of Texas at San Antonio TASSCC State of the State 2008 December 11, 2008 Austin, Texas

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3. Iowa Population 2007 = 2,988,046

4. Texas 2007 + + 64,535 = 2000 2007

5. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2007 State 2000 Population* 2007 Population* Numerical Change 2000-2007 Percent Change 2000-2007 Texas20,851,82023,904,3803,052,56014.6 California33,871,64836,553,2152,681,5677.9 Florida15,982,37818,251,2432,268,86514.2 Georgia8,186,4539,544,7501,358,29716.6 Arizona5,130,6326,338,7551,208,12323.5 North Carolina8,049,3139,061,0321,011,71912.6 Virginia7,078,5157,712,091633,5769.0 Washington5,894,1216,468,424574,3039.7 Nevada1,998,2572,565,382567,12528.4 Colorado4,301,2614,861,515560,25413.0 *Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2007. Source:Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

6. Percent Change Due to Year*Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent Change Natural Increase Net Migration 19507,711,194-- 19609,579,6771,868,4831,754,652113,83124.293.916.09 197011,196,7301,617,0531,402,683214,37016.986.7413.26 198014,229,1913,032,4611,260,7941,771,66727.141.5858.42 199016,986,5102,757,3191,815,670941,64919.965.8534.15 200020,851,8203,865,3101,919,2811,946,02922.849.6550.35 200723,904,3803,052,5601,635,0151,417,54514.653.5646.44 *All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2007 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Source:Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2007

7. Population Change by Components of Change in the State, 1990-2000 and 2000-2007 State of Texas 1990-2000 Numerical Change3,865,485 Natural Increase1,922,044 Domestic Migration1,166,570 International Migration776,871 2000-2007 Numerical Change3,052,560 Natural Increase1,635,015 Domestic Migration574,950 International Migration842,595

8. Percentage of Texas Population Growth Attributable to Migration, Observed and Projected SourcePeriodAllHispanic Observed, Census Estimates2000 to 200746.7%- Projected, 200-2004 Scenario 2000 to 2010 2000 to 2040 54.1% 77.0% 56.0% 73.2%

9. Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2007 Nativity of Texas Children Under 5 Years Old in Relation to Mother’s Nativity

10. Annual Net Internal and International Migration to Texas, July 1 to July 1, 2000-2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates

11. Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040 Source: 2006 Texas State Data Center Projections.

12. County19801990200020072040 Big Five Metros6,235,1907,602,9139,270,90710,588,65916,859,109 Suburban to Big Five1,670,6782,407,6883,567,5104,773,31515,804,522 Border Metros1,072,1131,368,5141,777,4292,065,5453,571,423 All Other Metros2,754,6332,985,4923,328,7023,499,4653,970,135 All Non-Metro2,496,5772,621,9032,907,2722,977,3963,376,739 Total14,229,19116,986,51020,851,82023,904,38043,581,928 Source: 1980-2000 - U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2007 - Census Bureau Estimates; 2040 - State Data Center 2000-2004 Migration Scenario Projection Population Growth for Texas, 1980 -2040 (2000-2004 Migration Scenario)

13. Components of Change for Texas, 2000 to 2007 County Population Births- Deaths Migration 20002007ChangeForeignDomestic Big Five Metros9,270,90710,588,6591,317,752851,550574,332-142,602 Suburban to Big Five3,567,5104,773,3151,205,805284,62792,482837,743 Border Metros1,777,4292,065,545288,116253,40692,240-49,513 All Other Metros3,328,7023,499,465170,763167,43037,393-21,751 All Non-Metro2,907,2722,977,39670,12478,00246,148-41,799 Total20,851,82023,904,3803,052,5601,635,015842,595582,078 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2007)

14. Source: Texas Workforce Commission (Employment) U.S. Bureau of the Census (Population). Estimates are for July 1 of each year. Population and Employment Change in Texas after 2000 County 2000 - 2007 2000 – 2007 JobsPopulationJobsPopulation Big Five Metros 360,408 1,274,4187.73%13.68% Suburban to Big Five434,5711,187,22723.25%28.41% Border Metros 112,951 257,19818.00%21.13% All Other Metros 143,627 149,8469.55%4.76% All Non-Metro 75,554 86,8486.04%2.80% Total 1,127,111 2,955,53711.38%14.11%

15. Percent Change in Population and Job Growth in Texas, 1977-2007

16. Changes in Geographic Distribution in Texas

17. Internal In-Migration, 2000 to 2007, as a Percent of 2000 Population

18. Internal Out-Migration, 2000 to 2007, as a Percent of 2000 Population

19. Recent International Immigration as a Percent of 2007 Population

20. Percent Growth 1980-1990

21. Percent Growth 1990-2000

22. Percent Growth 2000-2007

23. Projected % Growth 2007-2040

24. Historical Population Increase for Core-Based Areas in Texas, 1980-2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Population Counts

25. Projected Population Increase for Core-Based Areas in Texas, 2007-2040 (Scenario 00-04)

26. Changes in Age Structure

27. Age-Sex Structure of Texas, 2007 and Projected 2040 (Scenario 2000-2004) Source: Texas State Data Center Estimates and Projections

28. Texas Population by Age, 2000 & 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2007)

29. Texas Children by Age, 2000 and 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2007)

30. Percent Change in Enrollment in Texas, 2000-2007

31. Numeric Change in Enrollment in Texas, 2000-2007

32. Changes in Ethnicity

33. Ethnicity & Immigrant Status- State of Texas, 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2007 American Community Survey Microdata File

34. Immigrant Status by Age for Hispanics in Texas, 2007

35. % of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040* Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario

36. When do Hispanics pass Anglos in Texas? When do Hispanics become a majority in Texas? Migration Scenario Pass Anglos ? Absolute Majority? No Migration20342040+ 1/2 of 1990-200020202035 Observed 1990-200020142026 Estimated 2000-200420152027 Source: Texas State Data Center Projections

37. Projected Ethnic Change in the State of Texas, 2000-2040 (Scenario 2000-2004)

38. Percentage of Texas Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population

39. Percentage of Texas Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario

40. Workforce Renewal in Texas

41. Educational Attainment (%) of Adults 25-64, Texas vs. Rest of the US Source: American Community Survey 2007 Microdata File

42. Baby Boomers in Texas Workforce 4.3 million Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) in Texas workforce in 2006 700,000 born before 1946 Total workforce= 11.5 million Persons born before 1964 are 43% of workforce, and 53% of college graduates in the workforce

43. Educational Attainment of Baby Boomers in the Texas Workforce vs. Parents of Texas Children Percentage

44. Ratio of over-represented and under-represented occupations: Parents of Texas children vs. Boomers in Civilian Workforce Source: American Community Survey 2006 Microdata File

45. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

46. Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. Nazrul Hoque, Ph.D. Jeff Jordan, Ph.D. Beverly Pecotte (State Data Center, San Antonio) Sheila Dos Santos-Dierking (Office of the State Demographer, Austin) Phone 210 – 458 – 6536 (San Antonio) Phone 512 – 463 – 8390 (Austin) Website txsdc.utsa.edu