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THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.

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Presentation on theme: "THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS."— Presentation transcript:

1 THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

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3  $15 to enter competition  All money goes to prizes so more people = better prizes  Call Options, Put Options, Short Selling  Top 8 get prizes (tentatively)  Director of Simulations will monitor for any irregularities

4  Riley Boylan – VA – Virgin America  Up 7.55% on the week.

5 http://iowahawktrade.com/ Twitter - @HawktradeUI

6 Basic introduction to future and forwards

7  An agreement to buy or sell a certain quantity of an asset at a certain time in the future for a certain price  The futures contract is the price at which you agree to buy or sell, determined by supply and demand  A forward contract is identical, except they are trade OTC

8  Spot Price- The current market (spot) price of the underlying asset.  Delivery Date- Ho long till the contract expires and the underlying has to be delivered  Interest Rate- Valuing futures depends on an interest rate which varies

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10  Hedgers  Try to hedge away risk related to the portfolio  Speculators  Adds risk by speculating on position  Arbitrageurs  Aims to make riskless profit

11  Currencies  US dollar, British pound, Swiss franc  Energies  Crude, heating oil, gasoline  Financials  T-bonds, T-notes, Eurodollar  Grains  Wheat, corn, soybeans  Indices  E-mini S&P 500, Russell 2000 mini  Meats  Lean hogs, cattle, milk  Metals  Gold, silver, palladium  Softs  Cotton, sugar, orange juice

12  In 1955, 2 Onion commodity traders: Seigel and Kosuga  Bought enough Onions/futures to control 98% of the Chicago Onion market (CME)  Threatened farmers to buy onions…or else  Secretly bought short positions on onions  Flooded markets anyway…

13  Prices of onions went fro $2.75 to 10 cents a bag  Drove many onion farmers bankrupt  Led to the Onion Futures Act  BANS THE TRADING OF ONION FUTURES  Presented by congressman Gerald Ford and Signed by Pres. Eisenhower in 1958  In place to this day!

14  F0=S0e^(r-q)*T  When the futures price is greater than the discounted spot, the arbitrageur buys the stocks and sells futures  When the futures price is less than the discounted spot, the arbitrageur buys futures and sells stock

15  F0=S0e^(r-rf)*T  A foreign currency is analogous to a security providing a continuous dividend yield at the foreign risk free rate  Long forward currency = Long spot currency + Short domestic bond + Long foreign bond

16  An agreement to exchange cash flows at specified future times according to specified rules  Biggest derivative contract in existence

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19  Walmart announced it is raising entry-level wages to $9/hr.  Federal minimum wage is $7.25/hour, but average is $7.75.  29 states above federal minimum wage.

20  Walmart employs roughly 2.2 million.  An estimated 500,000 employees would be effected by the wage hike.  Wage hike would lead to roughly $1 billion in wage headwinds annually.

21  $476 billion in revenue, $16 billion in profit, $4.87 EPS  Dividend Yield 2.2%, FCF of roughly $13 billion  Estimate sales growth of less than 5% next five yrs vs. industry average of 13%

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23  Bought DAL call option with a strike price of $45, expiration date of 3/20  Paid $1.98 per contract, 75 contracts, total of $14,850  Currently trading at $3.56 per contract, total paper gain of $11,850, up 79.8%

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26  U.S. oil-rig count fell by 37 to 1019 last week.  Oil was down over 1.5% on Friday.  Leading gauge for predicting production levels.

27  On Friday, the EU granted Greece a 4-month extension for its debt bailout.  Greece currently holds debt of 175% of its GDP, which EU wants to be cut to 110% by 2020.

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