1. NOMINATIONS AND CAMPAIGNS

2. Presidential vs Congressional Campaigns More voters More competitive Less incumbent advantage Lower turnout in midterm elections Take more credit for individual projects Able to distance themselves from DC Franking privileges Coattail effect has declined

3. RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

4. Getting Mentioned Off the record to reporters Make speeches Fame Associated with major piece of legislation Governor

5. Money Individuals Political Action Committees

6. Organization Fund raisers Lawyers Accountants Pollsters Volunteers Position papers

7. Competing for Delegates Caucus: Neighborhood  county—congressional district  state convention—national convention Primary McGovern-Fraser Commission Superdelegates Frontloading

8. Evaluation of Primary and Caucus Disproportionate attention to early caucuses and primaries (Iowa and New Hampshire) Difficult to find time to run Money Low participation:  5% of registered voters in caucuses (except Iowa) and 20 in primary  Too much power to media

9. Strategy and Themes Tone: Positive or negative Theme: trust, change, experience Timing: heavy or light campaigning Targets: Which voters will change their minds?

10. Primaries and General Election Extreme in primary Center in general Clothespin Vote: lesser of two evils

11. Campaign Issues Position Issues:  Two opposing views  Social Security, abortion, death penalty  Can lead to party realignment Valence Issues:  Universal issues  Strong economy  Low crime  Patriotism

12. Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)

13. 1. Federal Election Commission Oversee elections to ensure they are complying with rules

14. 2. Presidential Election Campaign Fund $3 voluntary check off box on income tax (11% of taxpayers)

15. 3. Partial Public Financing for Presidential Primaries Presidential candidates who raise $5,000 on their own in at least 20 states can get individual contributions of up to $250 matched by the government (matching funds) If they accept federal support, they agree to limit campaign expenditures Bush and Kerry declined matching funds Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part of costs paid by the federal government

16. 4. General Election Public financing for major party candidates in general election Major party candidates receive fixed amount of money ($75m in 2004) Kerry and Bush accepted this money

17. 5. Full Disclosure File with FEC List contributors Detail how money was spent

18. 6. Limited Contributions Individual contributions to presidential and congressional candidates: $2,000 each (as of 2004) and indexed to inflation ($2,300 in the 2008 presidential election. Originally $1,000 but changed by McCain- Feingold Act

19. Campaign Finance Rules (1974) PACs: One PAC per corporation, union, or association Register 6 months in advance At least 50 contributors Give to at least five candidates No more than $5,000 per candidate per election No more than $15,000 per year to national party

20. Loopholes Soft money:  Funds NOT for specific candidates  Get-out-the-vote  Voter registration campaigns Bundling: combining contributions to be given at once (makes more of an impact)

21. Effect of Reforms Growth of PACs (4,217 in 2006): contributed $288.6 m in 2004 House and Senate elections Party power has weakened Rich candidates can avoid rules Favors ideological candidates Favors incumbents: they are more well known, so they can get the individual contribution Must enter race early because of the need to raise money

22. Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold Act) Banned soft money; national parties can only receive hard money (individual contributions or PAC contributions) Limit on individual contributions raised from $1,000 to $2,000 per candidate per election (indexed to inflation)

23. Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002 Independent expenditures by corporations, labor unions, trade associations and (under certain circumstances) nonprofits are sharply restricted: Barred groups from running issue ads within 60 days of a general election (or 30 days before a primary) if they refer to a federal candidate and are not funded through a PAC (i.e., regulated funds)

24. Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002 527 Groups are not subject to contribution restrictions as long as political messages did not make explicit endorsements of candidates by using phrases, such as vote for, or vote against $424 million in 2004 (52 gave over $1 million; 213 gave over $100,000)

25. VOTING FACTORS

26. Incumbency In good economic times, party holding White House normally does well; in poor times it does badly (pocketbook vote) Many who are doing well will vote against incumbent if country is not doing well because of friends or customers not doing well

27. Character Honesty and reliability Opinion on crime, abortion, and school prayer Acting presidential (speaking well, dignified, compassionate, authoritative, reasonable, likable)

28. Money Does not make a difference since each candidate gets same amount (If both candidates accept public funding.) Makes a difference in Congressional races: High-spending incumbents do better than low-spending incumbents Average spending has increased over time (incumbent to challenger ratio: 2.47)

29. Non-factors VP nominee Political reporting Religion Abortion: might affect who gets nomination New voting groups: “angry white males did not elect Republican Congress in 1994 and soccer moms did not elect Bill Clinton in 1996”

30. Party Identification More Democrats than Republicans, but Democrats lost 7 of 10 presidential elections since 1968: Democrats less loyal (80% of Republicans vote party line, but 1/3 of Democrats voted for Nixon and 26% for Reagan) Republican attract a majority of independents, who are usually younger whites Higher percentage of Republicans vote

31. Issues Prospective/Policy voting: Voter learn about the issues Select best candidate Retrospective voting: If voters look at how things have gone in the past and they like it, they will vote for candidate who will continue those policies (and vice-versa) Elections are decided by this factor

32. Campaign Revive party loyalties Voters see how candidates handle pressure Judge character and core values

33. Democratic Coalition African-Americans (most loyal) Mexican-Americans Puerto Ricans Jewish People (most loyal) Lost strong support of :  Catholics  Southerners  Union Members

34. Republican Coalition Business people (most loyal) Farmers (volatile) Professionals Poor people (most are elderly and retired; low-income blacks vote Democrat, but less than 25% of Democratic vote)

35. Party Realignment “sharp lasting shift in the popular coalition supporting one or both parties “new issue of utmost importance to the voters cuts across existing party divisions and replaces old issues that were formerly the basis of of party identification” Five major shifts in American history

36. 1800 Elections Jeffersonian Republicans defeated the Federalists

37. 1828 Elections Jacksonian Democrats win

38. 1860 Slavery issue Whigs (Constitutional Union Party) silent and fall Democratic Party split Northern part waffling Southern party in favor of slavery Republicans win with Lincoln

39. 1896 Elections Economic causes (depressions) Republicans defeat William Jennings Bryan Republicans: urban, workers, and businesspeople, Catholics, Lutherans Democrats: farmers, small towns, low tariffs, and rural interests, fundamentalists North/South became East/West

40. 1932 Elections Great Depression Roosevelt Democrats win Democrats: urban workers, northern blacks, southern whites, Jewish voters

41. Party Decline Ticket splitting increasing Leads to divided government Office bloc (Massachusetts ) ballot: list candidates by office Party-column (Indiana) ballot: can vote straight party with one mark

42. Campaign Finance Rules (1974) GENERAL: Federal Election Commission (6 people) Full disclosure of donors ($100 or more) No cash contributions over $100 No foreign contributions No limit if candidate does not accept federal funding (up to $50,000 if he does)

43. Campaign Finance Rules (1974) Individual Contributions: No more than $2,000 per candidate per election An individual may not make federal political gifts exceeding $95,000 every two years, of which only $37,500 may go to candidates

44. Campaign Finance Rules (1974) Presidential Primaries: Matching funds for $250 donations or less Candidate must raise $5,000 in each of 20 states in $250 contributions or less to be eligible

45. Campaign Finance Rules (1974) Presidential Election:  Major party candidates: all costs up to a legal limit paid by the federal government (if they accept federal support)  Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part of costs paid by the federal government