1. Missile proliferation

2. Delivery options… Nuclear, chemical, biological weapons need some means of delivery – Terrorists may be satisfied with truck or boat – States will typically want reliable delivery by aircraft or missile – All 8 states with established nuclear arsenals have used both aircraft and missiles for delivery – North Korea has active ballistic and cruise missile programs – Requirements for a weapon to be launched on a missile (small size, ability to withstand missile environment, reliability) higher – Medium-range and long-range missiles not easy to develop

3. Missiles vs. aircraft

4. The V-2: an early ballistic missile 320 km range 12,500 kg Warhead: 980 kg 14m x 1.65m 3,000 fired during WWII Basis for post-war missile programs in United States and USSR Source: Wikipedia

5. What’s wrong with this picture? Source: Steeljaw Scribe

6. North Korean missiles Scud B: 300 km range Scud C: 500-700 km range No-Dong: 1,300 km range Taepo-Dong-1: 2,000 km range?* Taepo-Dong-2: 6,000 km range?* *No successful flight tests Source: GlobalSecurity.org

7. Iranian missiles Scud B/Shahab-1: 300 km range Scud C/Shahab-2: 500-700 km range No-Dong/Shahab-3: 1,300 km range Shahab-4: 2,000 km range? Shahab-5-6: ? 2-stage solid-fuel? Source: GlobalSecurity.org, CRS

8. Moscow building with enough HEU for a bomb -- 1994 Source: DOE

9. Key technical challenges in making long- range ballistic missiles Propulsion – Liquid fuel: precision machining of wide range of parts, pumps, etc – Solid fuel: mixing, casting large solid motors – Staging Guidance – Small errors propagate to large misses at long ranges Reentry – Major challenge for intermediate and long ranges – Especially if reasonable accuracy is important Warhead – Miniaturizing for missile – Design to survive missile acceleration, vibration

10. Cruise missiles and UAVs Between ballistic missiles and aircraft – Not high speed, more potential for air defense interception – Can be highly accurate, highly trained personnel not needed New technologies – especially GPS – make high-accuracy cruise missiles far easier to build Most countries could build a crude cruise missile Sophisticated cruise missiles (more difficult to build) can follow terrain, in some cases evade defenses Conventional land-attack, anti-ship, nuclear variants – myriad other potential missions as well Also covered by MTCR – but supply restraint may be less effective than for ballistic missiles

11. MTCR and Hague Code of Conduct MTCR – Political commitment to limit missile exports – Focuses on missiles with range ≥ 300 km – Related production technology covered as well – agreed list – 34 countries participating – Complaints from non-participant states – http://www.mtcr.info/english/index.html Follow-on supplement: Hague Code of Conduct – Pushed by MTCR parties, launched in 2003 – Also known as “International Code of Conduct” – Countries to exercise “maximum possible restraint” – 128 participating countries

12. INF Treaty First major breakthrough at end of Cold War, 1987 – Banned all U.S. and Soviet ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km – 2,692 missiles destroyed by mid-1991 – Extensive on-site inspections (a first, laid groundwork for START) Concept of globalizing the agreement – Russia pushing for globalization – or threatening to abrogate – Globalization now joint U.S.-Russian stated goal – Successful globalization would ban the missiles of most proliferation concern – very difficult for states to build missiles with > 5,500 km range – What incentives would key countries of missile concern have to sign on?

13. Key challenges to missile nonproliferation… Spread of technology – Precision manufacturing can now be done in many countries Suppliers outside regime – Especially North Korea – Iran in the future? Others? Space launch, missile defense similar technologies – Creates incentive for countries to establish technical capabilities Cruise missiles, UAVs increasingly straightforward to build