1. Mapping the Northern Rivers Housing Market to 2036 Dr Tony Gilmour Northern Rivers Housing Forum Lismore: 14 September 2011

2. Presentation Overview Demographic changes Regional housing supply/demand and affordability issues Social impacts of housing market challenges

3. Northern Rivers Housing Market Study area  Focus on 7 council areas of the Northern Rivers Housing Forum  6 in ‘Far North Coast’ NSW Planning region  No NSW regional planning authority Housing market characteristics:  Series of distinct housing sub-markets  Dispersed population, mainly living in villages and smaller towns  Greatest growth in coastal areas

4. 1 Demographic Changes

5. Demographic Trends Population drivers:  Impact from rapid growth of South East Queensland  Pacific Coast Highway Upgrade  Sea- and tree- change migration  By 2036 population +39% (Sydney 40%, Brisbane +64%) Trends:  Ageing population - over 65s will double by 2026 to 32%  Fewer young people 2001-2005

6. Population Increase, 2001-2036

7. Population Change, 2001-2036

8. 2 Housing Supply, Demand and Affordability

9. Housing Demand and Supply Far North Coast- Housing Demand Estimated population, 2036315,600 Dwelling occupancy1.91 Properties required, 2036165,000 Current housing stock95,000 New dwellings required 203670,000 Sensitivity analysis on new dwellings required Population in 2036 +5%79,000 Occupancy rates -5%79,000 Both of the above88,000 2036. Table 6: Housing demand to 2036 Source: NSW Government (2006, 2009b) for first five rows Far North Coast- Housing supply Ballina8,400 Byron2,600 Kyogle3,000 Lismore8,000 Richmond Valley9,900 Tweed19,100 New dwellings supplied by 203651,000 Housing demand forecast based on growing population and reducing occupancy. NSW Government estimate need 70,000 dwellings by 2036 Housing supply hard to estimate. NSW Government consider 51,000 possible, though UDIA and MacroPlan challenge these numbers, especially in Tweed and Byron ‘hot spots’ Nationwide, supply not keeping pace with demand. Estimated 90,000 dwellings pa shortfall. This is the main driver of affordability problems

10. Housing Affordability Relative lack of some higher income jobs Far lower median incomes than Sydney or NSW, esp. Kyogle and Clarence Valley Rents lower than Sydney and NSW, though less gap in sales prices High levels of households in rental stress. Byron, Tweed and Balina higher than Sydney Richmond and Kyogle are relatively affordable for renters and purchasers Moderate income households (80-120% levels) also in housing stress - in Byron Shire 49% renters; 37% purchasers

11. Rental prices Weekly rents in $

12. Property Purchase Prices

13. Affordability and Housing Stock Area Owner occupied % Social rental % Private rental % Ballina64.94.524.2 Byron59.21.927.9 Kyogle73.12.518.5 Lismore65.44.224.4 Richmond Valley67.24.621.8 Tweed66.33.023.0 Clarence Valley70.53.320.5 Sydney SD61.15.133.8 NSW63.45.031.6 Built form dominated by detached houses Higher owner occupation than in Sydney or across NSW Social housing rental low, especially in certain council areas Strong presence of community housing - mainly North Coast Community Housing (835 units). Housing NSW down to 2,470 units after estate stock transfer in Byron of over 200 units Low impact from National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS)

14. Alternative Dwellings Caravan parks and holiday villages a traditional source of affordable housing, especially in coastal areas Competition for land driven by sea change migration and tourism Loss of alternative dwellings a major issue (420 sites lost 2001- 2004 in region: research by Caroline Squires)

15. 3 Social Impacts

16. Homelessness Chart shows ‘primary’ homeless - typically rough sleepers and those in improvised dwellings Highest concentrations of homeless population are in areas in the region with greatest housing stress 51% of the regions entire homeless population are in Tweed Heads In 2006 region had 3% of NSW population by 6% of homeless

17. Social Needs SEIFA measure of social disadvantage used by ABS (income, education, housing, unemployment) Several areas in region in top 40% of NSW disadvantage - especially in Lismore and Ballina council areas Challenges for human service provision across the region Isolated areas of disadvantage away from jobs and transport Rural isolation, especially in areas of declining population

18. Mapping the Northern Rivers Housing Market to 2036 Dr Tony Gilmour tony@elton.com.au www.tonygilmour.com