1. A MACROPERSPECTIVE

2. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE CONTINUITIES—entails broad themes or concerns persisting over time.

3. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE CHANGE—entails variables such as time, place, and strategies/tactics involved in promoting/protecting the continuities

4. CONTINUTIES ( promoting and protecting ) Economic Security Economic Security International Stature (soft power) International Stature (soft power) Effective Sovereignty Effective Sovereignty

5. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS Whatever potential might have existed for dramatic policy transformations as Fidel moved into the background has not, for the most part, materialized. Raúl’s style is more low-key and pragmatic than that of his charismatic brother, but the substance of Cuba’s foreign affairs agenda has not changed radically.

6. ECONOMIC SECURITY (an overview of growth plus diversification) Macroeconomic Performance (measured by GDP growth rates) Macroeconomic Performance (measured by GDP growth rates)

8. ECONOMIC SECURITY (growth plus diversification) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations International Economic Relations –Regional diversification of trade

12. ECONOMIC SECURITY (growth plus diversification) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations International Economic Relations –Regional diversification of trade –Diversification of export product menu

13. Sugar = 76% Nickel = 7% Tourism = 4%

15. Services = 49% Tourism =19% Nickel = 12% (Sugar = 2%)

16. Services = 37% Other Merchan = 19% Tourism = 15% Nickel = 9%

17. ECONOMIC SECURITY (growth plus diversification) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations International Economic Relations − Regional diversification of trade − Regional diversification of trade –Diversification of export menu –Diversification of trading partners

18. Prior to the 1990s, approximately 85% of Cuba’s foreign trade was with the USSR and Soviet- dominated Eastern European countries. There was virtually no trade with Latin American countries (except Mexico) and relatively small amounts with Western European nations. Cuba’s Primary Trading Partners, 2006 and 2012 2006 2012 Country Thousands Country Thousands of Pesos Of Pesos TOTAL (ranked) Venezuela 2,641,210 Venezuela 8,562,849 China 1,815,101 China 1,695,900 Spain 1,016,533 Spain 1,156,086 Canada 896,985 Canada 938,295 Netherlands 855,977 Netherlands 791,811 Percent of TOTAL (ranked) Venezuela 21.26 Venezuela 44.19 China 14.61 China 8.75 Spain 8.18 Spain 5.97 Canada 7.22 Canada 4.84 Netherlands 6.89 Netherlands 4.09

19. ECONOMIC SECURITY (growth plus diversification) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations International Economic Relations − Regional diversification of trade − Regional diversification of trade –Diversification of export menu –Diversification of trading partners –Special Venezuelan Relationship

23. ECONOMIC SECURITY (growth plus diversification) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations International Economic Relations − Regional diversification of trade − Regional diversification of trade –Diversification of export menu –Diversification of trading partners –Special Venezuelan Relationship –Oil A potential “silver bullet”

25. RECENT RAULISTA INITIATIVES Expanding Brazilian relations Expanding Brazilian relations New foreign investment law New foreign investment law

26. INTERNATIONAL STATURE Policy Manifestations Policy Manifestations –Developmental aid programs (especially education and health care)

27. Cuban Overseas Medical Personnel

28. INTERNATIONAL STATURE Policy Manifestations Policy Manifestations –Developmental aid programs (esp education and health care) –Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA)

30. INTERNATIONAL STATURE Policy Manifestations Policy Manifestations –Developmental aid programs (esp education and health care) –Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) leadership –CELAC (Latin American and Caribbean Economic Community) leadership

31. EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY Litmus test—ability to frustrate Washington’s hostility Litmus test—ability to frustrate Washington’s hostilityPASSED Enhanced economic security + Solid international stature = strengthening of effective sovereignty Enhanced economic security + Solid international stature = strengthening of effective sovereignty Bottom line -- Cuba’s effective sovereignty does not currently appear to be in any serious jeopardy Bottom line -- Cuba’s effective sovereignty does not currently appear to be in any serious jeopardy

32. CONCLUSION

33. THANK YOU VERY MUCH