1. IMPROVING RESPONSE Steve Lyons The Weather Channel NHC Orlando, FL April 11, 2006

2. THE $100,000 QUESTION DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE? DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE?

3. THE MESSAGE STEVE’S 1 st LAW OF RESPONSE… NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATION NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATION

4. REQUIRED RESPONSE SHOULD BE FAR LESS SEVERE! “POOR” FORECASTS RISING POPULATIONS INADEQUATE ROADS NON LOCAL EVACUATIONS INSUFFICIENT “LOCAL” SHELTER SPACE INADEQUATE SHELTER SUPPORT GET EM’ OUT OF THERE MENTALITY POOR/UNSAFE CONSTRUCTION… ALL LEAD TO OVER RESPONSE BY FAR GREATER NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAN IS NECESSARY. ALL LEAD TO OVER RESPONSE BY FAR GREATER NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAN IS NECESSARY. THIS IS BY ITSELF POOR RESPONSE THIS IS BY ITSELF POOR RESPONSE

5. “PHASED EVACUATIONS” STEVE’S 2 nd LAW OF RESPONSE… GREED COMBINED WITH IMPERFECT COMMUNICATIONS DICTATES “PHASING” WILL FAIL IN HIGH POPULATION AREAS! GREED COMBINED WITH IMPERFECT COMMUNICATIONS DICTATES “PHASING” WILL FAIL IN HIGH POPULATION AREAS!

6. “PHASED EVACUATIONS” DOES YOUR PUBLIC KNOW YOUR PHASES? MAKE THE PROCESS AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE ( REMOVE FAILURE POINTS )

7. WHAT IS THE RISK? NOT ALL CAT 3’s ARE EQUAL, SOME ARE FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS! PROVIDE CONSISTENT “LOCALIZED” RESPONSE INFORMATION EDUCATE THE PUBLIC ABOUT YOUR PLAN BEFORE YOU ASK THEM TO FOLLOW IT GIVE PEOPLE GOOD REASONS & GOOD OPTIONS TO RESPOND

8. Great Hurricane Galveston, TX 1900

9. New England 1938

10. Long Beach MS 2005! (after Katrina)

11. EARLY EVACUATIONS STEVE’S 3rd LAW OF RESPONSE… THE EARLIER YOU START THE EVACUATION THE LESS LIKELY IT WAS NECESSARY! THE EARLIER YOU START THE EVACUATION THE LESS LIKELY IT WAS NECESSARY!

12. POPULATION IS A HUGE ENEMY!

13. FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE EVACUATION FALSE ALARMS ARE RARELY FORGOTTEN

14. FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE STEVE’S 4th LAW OF RESPONSE… BAD EVACUATION EXPERIENCES BAD EVACUATION EXPERIENCES ARE NEVER FORGOTTEN! ARE NEVER FORGOTTEN!

15. SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS STEVE’S 5th LAW OF RESPONSE… THE MORE RESTRICTIONS YOU PUT ON SHELTERS, THE LESS LIKELY PEOPLE ARE TO USE THEM. THE MORE RESTRICTIONS YOU PUT ON SHELTERS, THE LESS LIKELY PEOPLE ARE TO USE THEM.

16. SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS PETS ARE A PART OF THE FAMILY, DEAL WITH THEM A LOCAL SAFE HAVEN IS A BEST OPTION (IF IT IS POSSIBLE)…THE REQUESTED RESPONSE IS LESS SEVERE!

17. THE UNTESTED STEVE’S 6 th LAW OF RESPONSE… THE UNTESTED RESPONDERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST PROBLEMS! THE UNTESTED RESPONDERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST PROBLEMS!

18. Tampa Florida…untested!

19. THE COST! STEVE’S 7 TH LAW OF RESPONSE… YOU CAN NOT MOVE PROPERTY! YOU CAN NOT MOVE PROPERTY!

20. THE COST THE COST 1. Katrina 2005 $75+ billion 2. Andrew 199230 3. Charley 200415 4. Ivan200414 1. Katrina 2005 $75+ billion 2. Andrew 199230 3. Charley 200415 4. Ivan200414 5. Wilma 200512 6. Rita 200510 7. Frances 2004 9 8. Hugo 1989 7 9. Jeanne 2004 7 10. Allison 2001 5 5. Wilma 200512 6. Rita 200510 7. Frances 2004 9 8. Hugo 1989 7 9. Jeanne 2004 7 10. Allison 2001 5 7 of the 10 costliest within the last 2 years! 7 of the 10 costliest within the last 2 years!

21. CONCLUSIONS MITIGATE MITIGATE EVACUATE WITHIN YOUR OWN HOME BE PREPARED EQUALLY WELL EVERY HURRICANE SEASON…TOTAL NUMBERS DON’T MEAN MUCH!