1. Jess Everett SUSTAINABILITY

2. The Tragedy of the Commons www.garretthardinsociety.org Garret Harding (1969) Science 162 Cartoon – The Rusty Oracle

3. Sustainable Development  Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs  Brundtland Commission (1987)  What did they mean?  Do you agree?  How can scientists & engineers help?

4. The Triple Bottom Line Adapted from: www.peopleandplanetandprofit.com

5. What do future generations NEED?  Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs  Water  Food  Clothing  Shelter  Health  Security  Waste Assimilation  Travel  Entertainment

6. Environment  Which of our needs do we get from the Earth (the environment)? Original logo, spaceship earth, EPCOT Center

7. CEE plays an important role  Water  Food  Clothing  Shelter  Health  Security  Waste Assimilation  Travel  Entertainment  Environmental & Water Resources  Env, WR & Transportation  Trans & Structural  Struc, Geotechnical  Env, WR & Trans  All  Env & WR  Trans & Struc  Struc, Geotechnical, …. NeedsCivil Engineering

8. Sustainability Pillars Population Environment Life Style Technology www.uwayhelps.org/pillars

9. Sustainability Pillars  Why does Sustainability depend on these Pillars?  How do the Pillars interact?

10. Population | Technology | Life Style | Earth

11. Small Population  Earth - big relative to Population  Natural systems can meet the needs of small population. How?  Wide Range of Technologies OK Efficient to Wasteful  Wide Range of Life Styles OK Frugal to Wasteful Water, food, wood, stone, fabrics, fossil fuels,… Waste assimilation

12. Frugal Life Style  Earth - big relative to Life Style  People live simply, minimizing their environmental impact. How?  Wide Range of Populations OK Small to Moderately Large  Wide Range of Technologies OK Efficient to Moderately Wasteful Vegetarianism, little travel, small homes,…

13. “Green” Technologies  Earth - big relative to Technology  Efficient Technologies meet our needs with minimum environmental impact. How?  Wide Range of Populations OK Small to Moderately Large  Wide Range of Life Styles OK Efficient to Moderately Wasteful Renewable energy, fuel efficient travel, high efficiency homes, Low impact farming…

14. What “Controls” the Pillars?  All Three  Culture   Population   Life Style   Technology  Inventors 

15. What “Controls” the Pillars?  All Three  Culture  Religion / Philosophy  Education  Government Policy  Population  Health Care  Family Planning  Financial Well Being  Life Style  Opportunity  Technology  Inventors  Venture Capitalists  R & D Infrastructure  Company Policy  Government Policy

16. How are we doing on Population?

17. How Many is Too Many? www.bubblews.com

18. Population Density en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/7/2014

19. Light Map cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015 Light Map matches density and ???? Technology, Finances, Security?

20. Fertility cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015 Children average women has over lifetime Why does fertility tend to be low in more developed places?

21. Growth Rate www.geographylwc.org.uk, accessed 1/10/2015

22. Population Projections en.wikipedia.org

23. Population Distribution “Pyramid” ruled since we first organized into societies. The Economist (2014) “The World Reshaped” How does this effect sustainability?

24. Population Projections (11 B?) Nigeria is #1: 184 M now to 914 M in 2100. India is 2 nd. US is 8 th : 316  462 M. Africa is 1.1 B now, will go to 4.2 B. Has 8 of top 10. China declines from 1.4  1.1 B. “UW research: “World population could be nearly 11 billion by 2100” (2013), www.washington.edu

25. Megacities cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015 Cities over 5 M in US and China?US = 9China = 76 US projected to increase 150 M next 85 years, China projected to decrease 300 M

26. How Many is Too Many?  World Carrying Capacity  100 Million?  1 Billion?  10 Billion?  100 Billion?  Estimated often since the 1600’s  96 Estimates, from 1 to 10 21 B! 50 from 1 to 10 B 33 from 10 to 80 B 13 > 80 B! Three estimates over 10 9 B assumed: Body heat can be removed (dissipated) Human food based is algae ALL carbon on Earth is people or algae Jeroen et al. (2004) “Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction, BioScience, 54(3).

27. Limiting Factors  Land / Food (71)  Carbon (4)  Primary Production (4)  Nonrenewable Resources (3)  Energy (3)  Multiple Factors (2)  Forest Products (1)  Heat Removal (1)  Water Availability (1)  Most limiting?  Fresh water  Forest products  Nonrenewable products, e.g. fertilizer Jeroen et al. (2004) “Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction, BioScience, 54(3).

28. *Some of this is fossil water Oceans 97.2 % Ice Caps/Glaciers 2 % ffffffffffffff Groundwater* 0.78 % fffffff Soil Moisture 0.013 % fffff Atmosphere 0.0007 fffff Rivers & Streams 0.0002 % fffffff Biosphere 0.0001 % Population Limit – Water? Where is the water? blog.timesunion.comwww.umac.org

29. Population Limit – Water?  Total Fresh Water on Earth  ~ 37.5 M km 3  Minimum water consumption  ~ 50 L/person/d* (drink, cook & hygiene) = 5.0E-11 km 3 /p/d  Maximum Population?  Water for Africa Institute (2014) “Water Consumption”, www.water-for-africa.org/en/water-consumption.html, accessed 1/7/2014 37,500,000 / 5.0E-11 = 7.6E20

30. Why is 7.6E20 too many?  >2/3 of the freshwater is unavailable  50 l/person/d does not include agriculture, industry,…  Water is needed for other species  Can we treat the wastewater? Can environment assimilate it?  Other limitations?

31. Water Assessment  In 2006, 6 B people used ~ 30% of accessible renewable water  Accessible water not distributed well South America: 5 % population & 26 % of runoff Asia: 60 % population & 36 % of runoff  1 B without good access to water  We are using fossil water  Might reach 70% by 2025. Then what?  What about other species? www.globalchange.umich.edu (2006) “Human Appropriation of the World's Fresh Water Supply”

32. Technological Solutions?  Get more freshwater  Deeper wells  More Dams  A “Frac” process for water  Melt ice caps  More efficient homes and businesses  More efficient industry  Drought resistant crops  Turn salt water into fresh  Mine asteroids

33. Population Limit - Land  Total Earth Land Area   150 M km 2 (~30 %)  Land needed per person   89 kft 2 /person = 0.00827 km 2 /person  Maximum Population?  150,000,000 / 0.00823 = 18 B pureenergies.com, accessed 1/8/2015

34. Why is 18 B too high?  Some land is not arable  Land needed for industry How do we make the solar panels? Home, TV, TV Programs, Fridge,…  No room for other species  How do we treat waste?  Other limitations?

35. Agricultural Land - Assessment  Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 –1834)  “An Essay on the Principle of Population”, 1798 – 1826 He assumed Population will increase geometrically Food Production will increase arithmetically Predicted that population would outstrip food supply in less than a century  What happened?   Can Africa join green revolution?  Financial Capitalists Invest in Agriculture  Can agricultural technology continue to improve? The Green Revolution (Technology!) Fertilizer, Tractors, Hybrid Seeds

36. Agricultural Land - Assessment  Assumptions  Potential arable land - 21,375,000 km 2  Potential agricultural productivity - 8,923E12 kcal/yr  World Carrying Capacity  7.34 B At each country’s 1996 food consumption level  8.97 B At world country-average  4.01 B At North American consumption rate Shunji Murai, S. (1996) “Global environment and population carrying capacity”, The UNU global environmental Forum IV, Edited by Juha I. Uitto and Akiko Ono, The United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. We are supporting our food production with fossil fuel

37. Population Limit – Net Primary Production? 177,500 TW/year Reflected: 50,000 TW/year Space Dust: 1.5E8 kg/yr Atmosphere: 3.4E7 kg/yr Space dust accumulation: 66 cm over 4.5 B years Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) “Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity,” ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX 127,500 TW/yr available for plants Earth Energy Balance

38. Population Limit – Net Primary Production?  Primary Productivity  Plants using sun’s energy to grow (Photosynthesis)  Net Primary Productivity, NPP  Plant products available to other entities Examples? What do we use?  NPP  2.9E13 kg/yr Carbon  We use ~ 41 % of NPP We are only one of 5-10 M species on Earth! A human caused major extinction event is occurring What happens as we use more photovoltaic? Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) “Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity,” ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX

39. Earth Extinction Events We appear to be in a 6 th. Some call it “Homocene” because we appear to be the cause. American Society for Microbiology (2015) Do Red and Green Make Brown?: Perspectives on Plastid Acquisitions within Chromalveolates”, ec.asm.org/content/10/7/856/F7.expansion.html, accessed 1/8.

40. Population Limit – Net Primary Production?  Human population limit (P)  Assume we need at least 1200 kg /person Carbon  Let H NPP = fraction NPP for humans  P = H NPP x 2.9E13 / 1200  P = H NPP x 24,200,000,000 = H NPP x 2.42E10  If H NPP = 41 %, P = 9.9 B  If H NPP = 10 %, P = 2.4 B Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) “Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity,” ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX

41. Ecological Footprint  Area needed to sustain resource consumption & waste discharge by given population  Global hectares (gha) of biologically productive area Land for energy, crops, livestock, forest, fishing grounds, settlements 1 hectare = 2.5 acres 1 acre = 43,560 ft 2 Wackernagel and Rees, Our ecological footprint; New Society Publications, 1996 & en.wikipedia.org

42. candobetter.net Life Style & Technology Ecological Footprint

43. Ecological Footprint by Country

44. US Ecological Footprint  If everyone lived like US, it would take 5 Earths! www.bestfootforward.com

45. Ecological Footprint & Human Development wwf.panda.orgENO (217.149.52.103)

46. Population - Conclusion  World Carrying Capacity  Between 2 and 10 B?  Projected to reach 11 B by 2100  Should governments promote family planning & Contraception?  High World population will require what changes? Life style (developing countries) Technology

47. Life Style  Food  Shelter  Travel  Health Care  Water www.twcenter.net McMansion

48. Meat & Sustainability  Forest & Grassland Destruction  40 % of Central American Rainforest destroyed in 40 years  Water Consumption  7,000 liters water  100 grams beef (0.22 lb)  550 liters  one loaf of bread  Fossil Fuels Consumption  28 calories fossil fuel  1 calorie of meat protein We make fertilizer from fossil fuels!  3.3  1 calorie grain protein  Wastewater from feed lots World Watch Institute “Is Meet Sustainable?”, www.worldwatch.org/node/549, accessed 1/8/2015. ~2.3 times more people can live directly on grain versus livestock fed on that grain modernfarmer.com

49. Food & Water ProductUnitEquivalent water in m 3 per unit MEAT Fresh beefKg15 Fresh lambKg10 Fresh poultryKg6 OTHER Palm oilKg2 CerealsKg1.5 Citrus fruitsKg1 Puls, roots and tubersKg1 www.unesco.org

50. China and Pork The Economist (2015) “Empire of the Pig  Important part of Chinese culture  Festivals, sacrifices, commemorations  Before1949, only ~3 % of protein from meat  Chinese Pig consumption now 39 kg/p/year 500 M swine / year Government pork reserve to stabilize price 6 kg soy or corn feed to grow 1 kg pork Farmland consumed worldwide, e.g., 25 m ha of rainforest in Brazil Purchased Smithfield Foods, large American Firm

51. World livestock Livestock Million Head Percent change 1990-2012 199020002012 C ATTLE AND B UFFALOES 1,4451,4671,68416.5 P IGS 84985696613.8 P OULTRY 11,78816,07724,075104.2 S HEEP AND G OATS 1,7951,8112,16520.6 Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department (2014) “Sources of Meat”, Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations, www.fao.org/ag/againfo/themes/en/meat/backgr_sources.html, accessed 1/8.

52. Shelter www.nahb.com; www.census.gov & www.eia.doe.gov & news.bbc.co.uk Roughly 40% of US energy consumption in 2008 used in buildings (~38 quadrillion Btu) US Homes YearPeopleArea, ft 2 19703.141,400 20042.572,330

53. Buildings  Use ~75% of world’s electricity  Commercial and Residential  Most are energy wasters  US Green Building Council  LEEDs Certification Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design

54. Travel www.good.is Gallons/Passenger to go 350 miles www.websophist.com

55. Travel - Cars www.theautoinsurance.com

56. Travel Mode & Obesity www.theautoinsurance.com

57. Bike Transport frank.itlab.us www.randallhyman.com

58. US Energy Consumption www.eia.doe.gov

59. Health Care www.pbs.org & www.commonwealthfund.org, accessed 1/9/2015 2014 Ranking of Health Care 1. United Kingdom 2. Switzerland 3. Sweden 4. Australia 5. Germany & Netherlands (tied) 7. New Zealand & Norway (tied) 9. France 10. Canada 11. United States

60. Water Consumption www.gopixpic.com

61. Life Style - Conclusion  US lifestyle is the most unsustainable of large countries  What can we do?  Simplify  Downsize  Reorganize

62. Technology & CEE  Develop Renewable Energy  Redesign Communities  Improve Transportation  Building Energy Efficiency  Climate Change Adaptation  Access More Water  Environmental Protection  Pollution Reduction & Treatment  Improve Industry/Agriculture Much of this is about Saving Energy

63. Energy Consumption upload.wikimedia.org & www.worldpopulationbalance.org/population_energy US: ~5 % Population & ~20 % Energy Consumption India: ~17 % Population & ~4 % Energy Consumption 2003 data from IEA oag.ca.gov

64. Energy Consumption lamarguerite.files.wordpress.com

65. US Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009 www.eia.doe.gov Total = 94.6 Quadrillion Btu

66. Energy Waste in US awesome.good.is

67. Global Energy Consumption en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015

68. Where did the fossil fuels come from?  Most were formed ~300 M years ago  Swamps, bogs & forests  Warmer climate  Trees, plants, animals, fish, microorganisms  died  decomposed  buried under mud, rock, and sand  Over millions of years fossil fuels formed  Type depends on animal and plant debris present temperature and pressure how long buried  Still forming today, but at much lower rate  Different Climate  ~50 % of Wetlands drained in last 100 years  Significant forest loss and harvesting www.fe.doe.gov Fossil Fuels are Not RENEWABLE. What does this mean?

69. Renewable Energy Adapted from www.apsenergyconservation.org Almost all our energy comes from the sun, sooner or later Seconds Minutes Hours Days to Weeks Months to Years to Decades Millions of Years Photovoltaics Direct Solar Heat Wind Hydropower Biomass Coal, Oil & Natural Gas Renewable No t Renewable Can you explain?

70. Global Energy Potential en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015 1,655 16 = 103 yr

71. Where are the Reserves? www.worldcoal.org, 2011 (World Coal Association) www.oilandgasbmps.org

72. Fossil Fuel Problems  Not renewable  Climate Change  Pollution  Security www.thehindu.com

73. Human Caused Climate Change  CO 2 & other greenhouse gases  US Issues Heat Stroke Storm Intensity Drought Flood en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_to_Y2004.png

74. Pollution  Smog, Particles, Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion, Toxins Mexico city:www.pollutionissues.com/Ve-Z/Vehicular-Pollution.html

75. Pollution - Assessment  $120 B/year in US  Mostly from increased human deaths from air pollutants from power plants and vehicles ~ 20,000 people die prematurely/year Each life valued at $6 million based on 2000 dollar Pollutants include small soot particles - lung damage nitrogen oxides - contributes to smog sulfur dioxide - causes acid rain Wald, M. (2009)” Fossil Fuels’ Hidden Cost Is in Billions, Study Says”, New York Times, October 19, 2009 Hidden Cost of Fossil Fuel

76. Mountain top removal (Coal) virginia.sierraclub.org

77. Spills www.oilism.com/oil/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/oilspill2.jpg www.nytimes.com 6/14/2010

78. Security  Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela Iraq, N of Basra: googlesightseeing.com/2005 Burning oil fields

79. Sustainable Development  Current Population/Life Style/Technology is probably unsustainable in future  But we aren’t even meeting current needs!

80. UN Millennium Development Goals  Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty & Hunger  Halve proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day (1990-2015)  Achieve full & productive employment & decent work for all, including women & young people  Halve proportion of people who suffer from hunger (1990-2015) www.unesco.org

81. Living on less than $2/day en.wikipedia.org, from World Bank Data, accessed 1/9/2015

82. Undernourished Populations en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015

83. Global Hunger cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015

84. UN Millennium Development Goals  Goal 4: Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate  ~ 9 M children die each year < 5 years old Highest rates in sub-Saharan Africa in 2008, 1 in 7  Of 67 countries with high child mortality rates, only 10 on track to meet goal www.unesco.org

85. Under-5 Child Mortality gamapserver.who.int, accessed 1/9/2015

86. UN Millennium Development Goals  Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability  Sustainable development integrated into country policies and programs (2015) Forest, Biological diversity, Energy use per $1 GDP, Carbon dioxide, Ozone-depleting CFCs, Proportion of population using solid fuels  Reduce by half proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water (2015) 1 B people lack access to safe drinking water, 2.4 B to adequate sanitation  Achieve significant improvement in lives of ≥ 100 million slum dwellers (2020) www.unesco.org

87. Solid Fuel &Indoor Air Quality www.ourworldindata.org, accessed 1/10/2015 deaths per 1000 people / year from indoor air pollution from solid fuel use, 2004

88. Access to Improved Drinking Water U.N.’s 2010 Global Annual Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) report

89. Access to Improved Sanitation U.N.’s 2010 Global Annual Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) report

90. Progress  Extreme poverty reduced by half  Improved drinking water for 2.3 billion people  Hunger continues to decline, but additional efforts needed  >25 % of world’s population accessed improved sanitation since 1990, but a billion still resort to open defecation  Major trends that threaten environmental sustainability continue United Nations (2014) The Millennium Development Goals Report

91. Engineering Challenges  China, India,…  >5.5 B people want better life  More competition  Fossil Fuels  Limited reserves  Everyone wants some  Pollution,…  US  5 % population  20 % consumption  US Solution  Quality & Efficiency  Renewable Energy  Adaptation

92. Personal Solution – Me!  4.8 KW PV system  High Efficiency HVAC  Warm in summer  Cool in winter  Bike commuter  Shop with cargo bike  2011 Jetta Diesel  Mostly eat vegetarian  Backyard compost  Recycle users.rowan.edu/~everett/SusSJ.html

93. What else can we do?  Walk  Public Transportation  Small House  Resist Consumerism, Live Simply  Local Food  Clean Energy  Inform Political Process  Low Impact Recreation

94. What can you do as a CE?  Environmental  Water Resources  Structural  Transportation  Geotechnical  Efficient Buildings  Public Transportation  Renewable Energy  Environmental Protection  Carbon Sequestration  Coastal Protection  Flood Control  Storm protection

95. Planetary Boundaries www.stockholmresilience.org (Pollution) Extinctions per million species-years Biodiversity Intactness Index 9 planetary boundaries within which humanity can develop & thrive for generations. Crossing boundaries could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.