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Investment Analyst Views CIA General Meeting Chicago, Illinois October 19, 2006
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Veritas Investment Research Independent Unbiased Research Rooted in Forensic Accounting Based on Business Fundamentals Long-term Investment Horizon
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What do investors want to do? Measure earnings Evaluate risk Value the company Evaluate how well management is investing the company’s capital
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What tools do investors have? GAAP F/S Source of Earnings disclosures Embedded Value disclosures Notes to the F/S and MD&A, e.g.: CALM disclosures Reserve movements Fair values
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What the Street does Forecasting earnings by segment Key drivers appear to be: Premium growth Net Income margin Forecasts are then used to plug into: Forward P:E analysis Forward P:BV analysis
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Relative Price : Earnings Source: BMO Nesbitt Burns
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Price : Book Regression
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Why we don’t use these techniques The market doesn’t need a 15th EPS estimate Target P:E multiples are difficult to justify theoretically ROE regressions should be a means, not an end Short term forecasts are inherently fraught with danger Cause & effect (Dis)connect between market events and GAAP earnings
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Veritas approach to life insurance Profitability is driven by two key components: Did the Lifeco sell profitable new business? Existing book of business – did the LifeCo manage better or worse than model ?
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SOE: Earnings Quality Concerns? Source of Earnings, Common Size Q1-F06 Source: Company reports and Veritas calculations.
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SOE - Returns on Surplus Return on Assets Backing Surplus*, 2001-2005 Source: Company reports and Veritas calculations * Simple average of opening and closing balances
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SOE - “Core earnings”
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How is shareholders’ money invested? Assets Backing Capital Asset Mix Supporting Capital (and Other Liabilities) – Dec. 31, 2005 Source: Company reports, Veritas calculations Includes non-policy liabilities and shareholders' equity ** Includes shareholders' equity, long-term debt, liabilities for preferred shares and capital instruments and non- controlling interest in subsidiaries
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Allowances for future credit losses Key takeaways Dollar amounts are much more significant than impaired loans MFC has been reducing its reserve GWO carries a lower reserve Source: Company reports and Veritas calculations. IAG does not disclose this figure. Note: Amounts in millions of Canadian dollars
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The Whole Portfolio Invested Asset Composition, Q4-F04 vs. Q1-F06
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Bonds Only Bond Portfolio Composition, Q4-F04 vs. Q1-F06
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Policy Liabilities - the Rollforward Difficult to glean useful information Source: MFC 2005 annual report MFC Policy Liability Rollforward, 2005 (Amounts in millions of Canadian dollars)
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Assumption changes – MFC 2005
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EV Valuation MFC share price, EV/share, BV/share
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P:EV Multiples
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VNB Multiples (Implied)
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Implied VNB Growth Discount RateMFCSLF Price$36.06$44.75 8.50%0.96%0.99% 9.00%1.46%1.49% 9.50%1.96%1.99%
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VNB / Share Growth
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SLF EV Growth Analysis VNB growth rates are not all that affect EV growth The market discounts for EV adjustments – the risk inherent in managing the existing book of business
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EV Adjustments Note: circles are annual summary; squares are individual components MFC - black SLF - white
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Investment Thesis
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VNB / Share Growth V-LIST BUY Target: $43.50
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Directly Forecasting EV Supplement with high level EV forecast: Opening EV + EV Accretion + Value of New Business -Capital Returned to Shareholders Closing EV
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3855: What’s My Number? Vanishing earnings Balance sheet volatility Gains / losses on assets backing surplus
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3855: Vanishing Earnings Forecasted EPS is affected Therefore, forecasted valuation is affected for those using P:E approach BV will increase – how does this affect those using P:BV regression? Does the change adversely affect management decisions?
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3855: Balance Sheet Volatility Assets backing surplus will be marked to market – GOOD! Assets backing liabilities will be marked to market – Not so good. Analysts taking a wait and see approach
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3855: Gains on Assets Backing Surplus What is the “right” level? Accounting is similar to banks’ for Investment Securities Operating earnings / Core earnings Analysts taking a wait and see approach
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3855: New Disclosures, Please! Fair value of assets backing surplus, by asset class Gains recognized in earnings & OCI separately, by asset class Liability rollforward by quarter, separately showing effect of asset valuation
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Other Requested Disclosures PfADs, reserve details VNB / segment SOE / segment Experience gains or losses by type Sensitivity to interest rates / equity markets
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Questions and Answers
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LifeCo Fair Values - Example Fair Value of Assets Backing Equity, as at December 31, 2005 (Amounts in billions of Canadian dollars) Source: Company reports and Veritas calculations. * Includes goodwill and intangibles.
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