1. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Designing the Best Paul D. Collopy DFM Consulting, Inc. Urbana IL paul@dfmconsulting.com

2. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Declining Enthusiasm for Complex Systems 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 $1,000,000 1900192019401960198020002020 Year Entered Service Cost (2001 Constant $ thousands) Production Tactical Aircraft Much data drawn from Augustine’s Laws, Norm Augustine, 1998, p. 105

3. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Time Performance designtestingproduction Cost +50% -5% Typical Cost Growth and Performance Erosion Hoping for little — Achieving less

4. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Designing the Best What is “Designing the Best?” Engineering Complex Systems Comparison to Good Enough Design Complex Adaptive Systems Conclusion

5. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Understanding “Better” Design A Efficiency90% Weight700 Manufacturing Cost700 Maintenance Cost500 Reliability1500 Rank Maintainability 7.8 Support Equipment12 Radar Cross-Section0.11 InfraRed Signature1.4 Can also include development time, technical risk, etc. Design BDesign C 92% 750 690 600 1200 9.5 10 0.10 1.2 89% 600 750 530 1400 8.0 12 0.11 1.5 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Attributes } Ordinal Function Rank

6. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Good Enough versus Best Requirements < $30 M unit mfg cost < 30,000 lbs. weight Cost Weight (0,0) Best Cost Weight (0,0) Increasing Score Traditional Spec MethodDesigning the Best Limit of Feasibility

7. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Engineering Complex Systems History of Complex Systems Superplans Modular Design Coordinated Design

8. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 The Rise of Complex Systems After WW II, we discovered the ability to create complex systems by building formal engineering organizations with thousands of members Complexity is a measure of the number of parts and the design interactions among the parts ships automobiles aircraft launch systems power gen computers spacecraft networks 1900 1910 19201930 194019501960 19701980 19902000 software networks aircraft Complexity

9. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Complex System Design = Superplan The design of a system is a set of plans –for manufacturing the system –for operating the system –maintaining, distributing, marketing, and more The design of a complex system is distributed across many minds –can be beyond any individual’s comprehension –plans link minds via overlaps

10. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Complex Systems use Hierarchical Modular Designs Specification Method (Good Enough) promises Functionality

11. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Coordinated Design — Designing the Best

12. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Value Gradient for Coordinated Module Design Engine Inlet StatusGradient Value Efficiency90%150,000135,000 Weight700-130-91,000 Manufacturing Cost700-700 Maintenance Cost500-0.5-250 Reliability15002.33,450 Design Value43,478 Maintainability 7.8 -340-2,652 Support Equipment12-15-180 Radar Cross-Section0.1 -1200 -120 InfraRed Signature1.4-50-70 Module Design Value is Commensurate with System Design Value x =

13. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Comparison to Good Enough Design Methods Example of Value Conflicts Visualizing Lack of Coordination Cumulative Impact of Lack of Coordination Formalization Symptoms of Problems in the Good Enough Method –Search for Knees in Curves –Aversity to Technical Risk

14. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Good Enough Method Fosters Value Conflicts Brake Material+ $11,000- 90 lbs. Rudder- $10,000+ 190 lbs. Net Impact+ $ 1,000+ 100 lbs. Differences in perceived value within a design team lead to choices that, taken together, are clearly lose-lose

15. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Good Enough Method is Uncoordinated Revealed Preferences

16. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Coordinated Values Achieve Design Potential Design Potential Designing the Best Good Enough Method Value A Value B

17. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Formalization of “Better” Net Value is a potential function in attribute space. Gradients of Value show the direction of improvement Cost Performance Lines of Constant Net Value Better Spec Design Space of Possible Designs

18. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 The Knee in the Curve: Guessing at Values Cost Performance Goodness ? Space of Possible Designs

19. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Settling for Minimum Risk Design Weight Maintenance Cost Drag Radar XC Reliability Logistics Footprint Manufacturing Cost Design Cost Maintainability Strength Reasonable Expectation Typical Requirement

20. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Complex Adaptive Systems Definition –Complex: Many interacting parts, complex interactions –Adaptive: Patterned by a schema (design) which evolves in response to the environment and the system itself –Autonomous: Emergent behavior, unplanned and unpredictable (ungovernable) Evolution of Engineered Systems Managing Autonomous Evolution

21. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Early System Life fundamental innovation Mature System entrenched design Value Landscape Increasing Value Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems

22. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Autonomous Development Managing Complex System Development is like planting a tree not like building a house You may provide resources to encourage fruitful development, and you may prune, or stop the development, but you cannot anticipate or force the exact outcome

23. D F M Design For the Marketplace DFM Consulting Inc., 2003 Conclusion — Designing the Best Know Yourself –Understand why one design is better than another Clearly, objectively, consistently, formally –Requires articulation of values (worthwhile exercise for $1 billion pgm) –No need to search for “knee in the curve” Benefit –> 50% reduction in cost, or equivalent improvement in performance –Robustness in the face of technical risk Reduced development cost and time Fully utilize our technical edge