1. Past and Future Problems of Cross-Mediterranean Relations: A European Perspective Birzeit, Palestine, November 3, 2011 Dr. Martin Beck KAS Amman Resident Representative

2. Content 1.The European approach towards the Middle East after World War II 2.Why did EU policies towards the Middle East not match the ideals of a Civilian Power until the Arab Spring? 3.Indicators that the EU will improve its role as a Civilian Power in the light of the Arab Spring 4.Indicators that the EU is going to fail to act as a Civilian Power in the Middle East 5.Conclusion

3. 1. The European Approach towards the Middle East after World War II Until the 1950/60s: European states as imperialist powers EU and its approach to act as a Civilian Power - The aspirations of a Civilian Power are based on D. Senghaas‘ idea of the „civilizational hexagon.“ Accordingly, the foreign policy of a civilizational power seeks „effective control of private violence through the monopolization of force; a culture of non-violent resolution of political disputes; rule of law; development of social division of labour and institutions; participation in decision making by those affected by them; and social justice“ (H.W. Maull) A brief assessment of the past: - 1970: European Political Cooperation - 1980: Declaration of the Venice Summit - 1993: Oslo Peace Process - 1995: Barcelona Process - 2008: Union for the Mediterranean

4. 2. Why did EU policies towards the Middle East not match the ideals of a Civilian Power until the Arab Spring? 2.1 Hostile international environment - special relationship between the U.S. and Israel (plus Saudi Arabia) 2.2 Hostile context of the Middle East - authoritarian regimes 2.3 Home-grown problems of the EU - Cross-Mediterranean Relations as Pro-Israeli Relations - Cross-Mediterranean Relations as Trans-Atlantic Relations - limited investment of power capabilities - unsolved dilemma between democratisation and stabilisation - Vision of Democratic Peace vs. the „Principle“ of „God bless us with democracy but spare us from democratisation“ - inefficient institutional setting

5. 3. Indicators that the EU will improve its role as a Civilian Power in the light of the Arab Spring 3.1 Improvement of the international environment - declining role of the U.S. in the Middle East 3.2 Improvement of the regional context - liberalisation/democratisation as a result of the Arab Spring 3.3 New directions taken by the EU in 2011 - Barroso‘s awareness of the dilemma between democratisation and stabilisation; democratisation as a difficult long-term process - additional financial commitments - termination of the old EU approach of „one size fits all“ - strengthening of relations with the Arab civil society

6. 4. Indicators that the EU is going to fail to act as a Civilian Power in the Middle East -No clear commitment to recognise Islamist governments -European immigration policy is still dominated by a security approach -Many EU policies towards the Arab World are still tailored as if there were a membership perspective -The new concept „more for more“ is still vague -The approach to strengthen the relations with the civil society by founding a „European Endowment for Democracy“ is problematic -Failure to Recognise Palestine as a State -Unsolved problems of the past (pro-Israeli and pro-American orientation, inefficient institutional setting)

7. 5. Conclusion The heydays of Europe acting as a Civilian Power were in the 1990s Decline in the first decade of the 21st century Back to the Civilian Power Approach in the light of the Arab Spring? - Improved international and regional conditions - Some steps in the right, as well as in the wrong direction - Crucial issues unsolved

8. Thank you very much for your attention. E-Mail: martin.beck@kas.demartin.beck@kas.de Phone: + 962 5929777