1. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G OE 0196 0337page 1 July 7, 2009 Shaping migration policies for economic recovery Rainer Münz Seminar: Tracking migration trends in Europe during recession and recovery

2. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G OE 0196 0337page 2 July 7, 2009 “ Migration Trends, Demographic Outlook and the Need for Smart Migration Policies ” Rainer Münz Erste Group Bank AG, Head of Research & Development Policy Network Seminar “In or Out ? Tracking migration trends in Europe during the recession and recovery” London, July 7, 2009

3. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 3 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Europe‘s Migration Pattern

4. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 4 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz From Emigration to Immigration

5. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 5 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin. -2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 below -5 -5 to -2 over +5 Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 1950-1960 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants) Source: Eurostat, UN

6. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 6 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin. -2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 below -5 -5 to -2 over +5 Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 1990-2000 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants) Quelle: Eurostat, UN

7. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 7 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin. -2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 below -5 -5 to -2 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 2000-2007 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants)

8. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 8 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz EU27: Immigration Minus Emigration, 1960-2007 (annual abs. numbers) Quelle: Eurostat

9. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 9 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Today

10. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 10 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz 80% of Europe’s Population Growth Comes From Immigration …

11. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 11 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz … But the Situation Varies From Country to Country (2008, in 100,000 people) 100,000 people Source: Eurostat

12. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 12 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Again More Migration Within Europe

13. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 13 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz EmploymentGDP EU10 (CE/SEE) GDP Growth in Central Europe (EU10) vs. Employment Growth in Western Europe (EU15) EU-15 EU 10 EU 15 Source: wiiw

14. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 14 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute Growth vs. Decline in Employment 2000-2005 in %

15. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 15 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Citizens of New EU Member States Increasingly Working in the West (CE work force working in EU 15 in % of total work force, 2007) Source: WIIW. Eurostat, OECD

16. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 16 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz 43 Million Migrants EU 27: Where Do They Have Come From? Source: Labour Force Survey 2007 14 million migrants from other EU member states 29 million migrants from (today‘s) third countries - among them: 19 million from Africa, Asia, South America

17. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 17 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Employment rates by citizenship, 2007 in % Source: EU LFS, Berlin Institute

18. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 18 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz European Migration and the Crisis

19. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 19 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz European Migration in Times of Crisis − Return migration within EU − Additional incentives by EU governments for non-EU migrants to go back − Fewer remittances − Are we loosing people with talent and skills that we will soon need again?

20. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 20 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz European Migration in Times of Crisis − So far: More men than women have lost their jobs − In certain sectors and regions: growth of unemployment quicker among native-born than among foreign-born workers − Rigidities of the labour markets − Rigidities of the housing markets

21. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 21 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Future Challanges for Europe

22. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 22 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Europe Is Getting Older! Population Structure in EU27, 2008 and 2060 Source: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008

23. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 23 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Development of Labour Force and Old-Age-Dependency Ratio (no migration) Source: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008

24. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 24 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Development of Labour Force and Old-Age-Dependency Ratio (+50 million immigrants) Source: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008

25. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 25 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Who Does Best in Migration Policy? − Traditional immigration countries as a bench mark − UK − Sweden − Do we need joint action at EU level

26. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 26 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz What Do We Need? − Smart migration policies − A truly open single EU labour market − The willingness and ability to make use of talents and skills of future migrants − Better integration

27. E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G page 27 Policy Network seminar London 7, 2009 01960337 / R. Münz Rainer Muenz rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com Thank You!