1. Spatial Scenarios for Europe: Images of cohesion or competitiveness ESPON Project 3.2. Coordination: J. Robert (Tersyn), M. Lennert (IGEAT)

2. Outline of the presentation 1. Introduction to scenarios 2. Introduction to ESPON project 3.2 3. Global context of future developments 4. Territorial challenges in Europe 5. Exploring policy choices 6. Modelling for policy: A macro-economic model of regional growth 7. Political messages of the scenarios

3. 1. Introduction to scenarios

4. Why do we need scenarios ?  Territorial patterns are very durable  inertia in the movement of people and enterprises  design and construction of infrastructures  Policy decided today will show its effects in 10 or even 25 years  Policy-makers need tools to evaluate future trends and probable effects of their decisions  Scenarios = tools for future-oriented policy- making

5. What are scenarios ?  narrative descriptions of possible futures  development of logical flows of ‘cause and effect’ steps toward the outcome  description of the the future through certain key variables

6. How are scenarios useful ?  provide insights into driving forces determining territorial development  provide insights into opportunities and threats of these driving forces for different regions  organise seemingly unrelated information and translate it into a framework for judgement  explore alternative sectoral policies and their territorial impacts  provide points of reference for the discussions among European policy-makers  make explicit what is generally only implicit during policy elaboration  provide policy-makers with arguments

7. Different types of scenarios  Content:  thematic scenarios: insights into possible effects of sectoral policy choices or of sectoral exogenous evolutions  integrated scenarios: integrated, multi-sectoral evaluation of impacts of fundamental global policy choices and exogenous evolutions  Form:  roll-forward scenarios: scenarios based on input hypotheses  roll-back scenarios: scenarios based on outcome hypotheses

8. Challenges of scenario making  Need to understanding the present…  current trends  driving forces  …but the future is not a linear extrapolation of the past !  anticipate breaking points  set of alternative scenarios  quali-quantitative approaches

9. 2. Introduction to ESPON project 3.2

11. Main objectives:  Awareness-raising about new territorial challenges, search for appropriate policy responses and revisiting issues related to the debate cohesion/competitiveness  Showing various possibilities for the long-term evolution (2030) of the European territory Approach:  Substantive knowledge base  Two series of scenarios: 1. Large number of thematic, exploratory scenarios related to driving forces taken separately 2. Small number of integrative territorial scenarios around the policy orientations of cohesion and competitiveness Method: Combination of qualitative/speculative and quantitative foresight investigations (models)

13.  European borders open to immigration  Growing socio-cultural tensions and insufficient integration policies  More investments in motorways  Rural evolution in a context of open markets and reduced CAP support  Climate change: repairing instead of preventing  Europe after oil peaking  Europe as a market place: EU widening (40 EU member countries)

14. 3. Global context of future developments

15. Climate change Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change (IPCC, 2007) Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year Increased damage from floods and storms

16. Climate change  Significant social and economic impacts  Risk of increasing socio-economic disparities at global scale  Important migratory movements  Local risks probabilistic

17. A new energy paradigm

18.  Climate change  Dependency and security  Energy vs Food  Technology unforeseeable

19. Globalisation

21.  EU27: (Imports+Exports)/GDP = 22% (Eurostat, 2006) ‏  Reshuffling of international division of labour and of power  Extreme labour cost differentials  Internationalisation of economic governance  Increasing commodification

22. Europe and its neighbourhood

23. 4. Territorial challenges in Europe

24. Demographic evolution : Increasing territorial differentiation of generations (metropolitan areas with younger population; attractive areas for retirees; remote rural areas suffering from long-lasting out-migration) Impacts of population ageing on regional labour markets: shortage of qualified manpower; increasing competition between regions; issue of replacement immigration Impacts of depopulation: maintain of services and infrastructure? Evolution of settlements and landscapes? Socio-cultural evolution in large cities: segregation of disfavoured groups; growing feeling of insecurity; emergence of gated communities; efficiency of integration policies?

26.  New segments of the European economy subject to external competition high-tech products, agri-products, services)  Stronger territorial concentration of the benefits of globalisation; increasing number of regions negatively affected;  Handicap of the fragmentation of the European economy (stronger sensitiveness to external mergers; risk of out-migration of decision centres and high-level business functions  European neighbourhood: demographic pressure from south and south-east; demographic depression in the east; intensification of traffic flows and needs for infrastructure development; economic cooperation/competition and integration of economic systems; European energy dependence (Russia, North Africa)

28.  Location of energy-intensive activities;  Evolution of mobility; substitution through telecom services;  Evolution of settlements (compact cities?)  Opportunities for regions with renewable energy sources  Opportunities for regions developing new energy technologies  Negative impacts on the accessibility of remote regions;  Likely positive impacts on the urban environment (hydrogen technologies)  Risks related to: the revival of nuclear energy; the competition between food and energy production in rural areas; environmental damages resulting from intensive energy-related agriculture and forestry.

29.  Structural impacts: - drought in southern Europe (impacts on the economy, the environment and the production of hydro-electricity) - mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism; - potential positive impacts on the northern half of Europe (new opportunities for rural areas and for winter tourism in the Nordic countries)  Impacts of natural hazards: river valleys, coastal areas, forest areas in southern Europe;  Less prosperous regions have less resources to allocate to prevention and mitigation measures

30.  Further intensification of traffic flows; saturation of main corridors; transfer of flows to secondary networks  Significant programmes of motorway construction being carried out or programmed (environmental impact? Coherence with the new energy paradigm?)  Strong development of air traffic (low cost companies; positive impacts on the accessibility of remote regions; strong dependence upon energy prices; environmental impacts?)  Low progress of maritime and rail freight traffic  Progress of the HST network: contributes to the expansion of the pentagon

31. 5. Exploring policy choices

37. 6. Modelling for policy: A macro-economic model of regional growth

38. 7. Political messages of the scenarios

39. Messages from the territorial perspectives  The European territory will be confronted in the coming decades with a number of new challenges, independently from policy options related to cohesion or competitiveness:  population ageing  new energy paradigm  climate change  accelerating globalisation  European geopolitical environment  Market forces and general evolution of European society have important impacts, compared to those of public policies  Present policies (including those related to competitiveness and cohesion) are not sufficient. New, rather ambitious and future-oriented policies have to be developed.

40. How to shape a desirable territorial perspective  It will not eliminate all territorial disparities and shortcomings because inertia and market forces are strong and resources are limited  It has to ensure that short-term benefits do not generate long-term drawbacks  Territorialising the European Social Model: The search of equity should not inhibit and offset real development opportunities, but fostering development potentials should not lead to rising inequalities

41. Some elements of reflection for policy  Within the current societal model, policy cannot change some of the fundamental evolutions, it has to adapt: depopulation of some areas (« intelligent shrinking »), metropolitanisation of the knowledge economy (face-to-face), climate change impacts in the short and medium term  Giving up public control of many aspects of economic and societal activities, means a reinforcement of the dominance of market forces in the shaping of our territories  To reach the territorial goals important public investments have to be made: where should the money come from ?  A desirable territorial perspective is a real choice of society to which a variety of public, sectoral policies have to contribute: education, innovation, transport, CAP, etc  National, regional and local policies very important for reaching territorial development goals

42.  Many of the identified future territorial challenges will be significant for the less-favoured regions, both in terms of problems and potentialities  Resources are necessary for: attracting retirees, counteracting economic marginalisation and out-migration, developing prevention and mitigation measures against natural hazards, drawing benefits from renewable energy sources, developing efficient measures of socio-economic and cultural integration  While the Strategic Guidelines and the Funds Regulations have only partially addressed the whole range of emerging territorial challenges, there is a need to consider them comprehensively in the implementation of structural policies (2007-2013) and in the argumentation for a continuation of Structural Policies after 2013