1. Alberto Alfonzo & Tugberk Tanrisevdir Economic Development and International Politics INAF 100

3.  What factors affect the odds of winning the African Cup of Nations?  How do these factors affect?

4. We expect:  Host Nations to be more probable to win the Tournament,  GDP Per Capita (Constant US$ 2005) to have a positive effect on the chances of winning,  Urban Population Percentage to have a positive impact on winning the Cup. On the other hand, the Total Population to have a negative effect.

5. Independent VariablesDependent Variables GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$) Chance of winning ACN Home Advantage Total Population Urban Population Percentage

6.  We studied these factors on every country that reached the Semifinals and Finals of the CAN, from 1962 to 2012.  We created a new variable “Points per Tournament” to control for in which position countries finished in the tournament.  We ran regressions in order to find significant relationships between our independent and dependent variables.

7. Home Advantage  11 countries which hosted the ACN won the title out of 29 tournaments.

8. GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$)  For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 5 out of 7 times: countries with higher GDP Per Capita won.

9. 20001)Cameroon2) Nigeria3) South AfricaResult GDPPC 868,1227604 678,58615545854652,3388083YES/NO 20021)Cameroon2) Senegal3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 895,6460436 701,7336937042675,55899580YES 20061)Egypt2) Ivory Coast3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 868,1227604 1251,971990746831,78868940NO 20041)Tunisia2) Morocco3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 868,1227604 1910,193407139783,07388692NO

10. 20081)Egypt2) Cameroon3) GhanaResult GDPPC 1456,565676 926,4843849723570,36368375YES 20101)Egypt2) Ghana3) NigeriaResult GDPPC 1550,064093 610,1836567963972,54617876YES/NO 20121)Zambia2) Ivory Coast3) MaliResult GDPPC 798,2602435 936,3859404089476,44467831NO

11. Urban Population Percentage  For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 3 out of 7 times: countries with higher Urban Population Percentage won.  Egypt, whose Urban Population Percentage was lower than its opponents', won 3 times.

12. Total Population  For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 4 out of 7 times: countries with more Total Population won.  Egypt, whose Total Population was higher than its opponents', won 3 times.

13.  Home Advantage does not have a positive effect as we expected.  GDP Per Capita does have a positive impact on the chances of winning the CAN, as we expected.  As for Total Population and Urban Population Percentage, the results are erratic. Therefore we cannot reach a conclusion yet.