1. The Human Population

2. Concepts we will discuss
Factors affecting human population size.
Human population problems
Managing population growth

3. More concepts we will discuss
How populations are measured and what information those statistics reveal
Population growth theory
Relationship between carrying capacity and population growth

4. Even more concepts we will discuss
Arguments associated with the Great Population Debate.
How demographic statistics provide information about a nation’s quality of life.
Population growth and quality of life comparisons between more- and less-developed countries.

5. What is a population?
Individuals of a single species that simultaneously occupy the same general area, having a high likelihood of interaction.

6. Characteristics of Populations
Population Density: Number of individuals per unit area.

7. Characteristics of Populations
Population Dispersion: Pattern of spacing among individuals.
Population Growth
Exponential (no limit to what environment can support)
Logistic (environment has a specific carrying capacity)

8. Population Growth Growth Rates Crude birth rate Crude death rate
Zero population growth

9. Population Growth Doubling Times Rule of 70
Least Developed Countries have the shortest doubling times.

10. The Rule of 70

11. The Great Population Debate
The Great Population Debate Points of View
There is No Population Problem
Cornucopian: People are the world’s ultimate resource.
Marxists: Poverty is the result of distribution problems, not overpopulation.

12. The Great Population Debate
The Great Population Debate Points of View
There is a Problem
Malthusians: Population growth, which is exponential, is limited by growth in the food supply, which is arithmetic.
Neo-Malthusians: In addition to food, other factors (such as shortages of water and space) impose limits on continued growth.
Zero Population Growth: A halt in population growth is needed

13. “The ‘Population Problem’ is a Complex Issue”
Problems are the result of unequal distribution of resources and high growth rates.
Over-consumption by slow-growth countries is also problematic.

14. Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
P final = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or
Population Change =
(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

15. Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Crude birth rate (CBR)
(CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people
Crude death rate (CDR)
(CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people

16. World Population

17. Population Growth

22. Population (billions)12 11
High
High
10.6 10
Medium
Low 9
Medium
8.9 8
Population (billions) 7 6
Low
7.2 5 4 3 2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year

23. Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations
No standard carrying capacity equation for humans
Humans are classified geopolitically, classifications which are ecologically meaningless.
Humans can raise carrying capacity of environment through technology.

24. Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations
Quality of life (standard of living) separates the calculation of carrying capacity between humans and nonhumans.
Cultural carrying capacity
When standards of living drop dramatically, people may become environmental refugees.

25. What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?
Fertility
General fertility rate—number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age per year (ages 15-49)
Age-specific fertility rate—number of live births per 1,000 women of a specific age group per year

26. What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?
Total fertility rate—average number of children a woman will bear throughout her life, based on the current age-specific fertility rate and assuming the current birth rate will remain constant throughout her life
Replacement fertility rate—fertility rate needed to ensure that each set of parents is “replaced” by their offspring.

27. 9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates
Children in Labor Force
Cost of raising and educating children
Availability of pension systems
Urbanization
Education and employment for women
Infant mortality rate
Average marrying age
Abortion
Availability of birth control

28. Factors Affecting Death Rates
Infant mortality rate (IMR)—number of infants under one year of age who die per 1,000 births each year
Childhood mortality rate (CMR)—number of children between one and five years of age who die per 1,000 births each year

29. Infant and Childhood Mortality
IMR is best single indicator of a society’s quality of life.

30. Infant and Childhood Mortality
Factors that contribute to high IMR and CMR include diarrhea (often caused by disease-infested water), improper weaning, famine, malnutrition, poor health of mother, and inadequate prenatal care.

31. Examples of age structure interaction
Click to view animation.

32. Population Age Structure
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Male
Female
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden

37. Age Distribution Graphically represented by population profile
Developing Countries have pyramidal-shaped profile;
Developed Countries have more rectangular or columnar profile.

38. Age Distribution Important indicator of future growth rates
Population momentum—occurs when large numbers of young people are present are in the population, ensuring continued growth even after fertility rates drop

39. Age Distribution
Determines a nation’s dependency load—the proportion of the population below 15 or above 65 years of age
Migration
Actual rate of increase

40. Influencing Population Size
Migration
Environmental refugees
Reducing births
Family planning
Empowerment of women
Economic rewards and penalties

41. Number of legal immigrants (thousands)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1907
1,400
1914
New laws restrict immigration
1,200
Number of legal immigrants (thousands)
1,000
800
600
Great Depression
400
200
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2010
Year

42. The Demographic Transition
Low
High
Relative population size
(number per 1,000 per year)
Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transindustrial
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
growth rate
Increasing Growth
Very high
Decreasing
Zero
Negative
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
Time
Fig p. 189

43. Demographic transition model interaction.
Click to view animation.

45. How does population growth affect economic development?
Every one percent increase in population needs a three percent increase in GNP.
High growth rates of LDCs have overwhelmed governments.

46. What Do Demographic Statistics Tell About Quality of Life?
Population Density
Urbanization
Life Expectancy (at birth)

47. Cutting Global Population Growth
Family planning
Improve health care
Elevate the status of women
Increase education
Involve men in parenting
Reduce poverty
Sustainability

48. If Women’s Status is Low:
Motherhood Only Option
Birth Rates Rise

49. A women’s status is determined by:
Access to Education
Access to Adequate Health Care
Legal Rights
Maternal mortality ratio
Employment Opportunities Outside Home
Wage Earnings
Marriage Age
Number of Children

51. Births per thousand population
U.S. Birth Rates: 32 30 28 26
Births per thousand population 24 22 20 18
End of World War II 16
Demographic
transition 14
Depression
Baby boom
Baby bust
Echo baby boom
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010

52. World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World 21 9
All developed
countries 11 10
All developing
countries 24 8
Developing
countries
(w/o China) 27 9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

53. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa 38 14
Latin
America 22
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 6
Asia 20 7
Oceania 18 7
United
States 14 8
North
America 14 8
Europe 10 12

54. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
China
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
1.3 billion
1.4 billion
India
1.1 billion
1.4 billion
USA
294 million
349 million
Indonesia
219 million
308 million
Brazil
179 million
211 million
Pakistan
159 million
229 million
Russia
144 million
137 million
Bangladesh
141 million
205 million
Japan
128 million
121 million
Nigeria
137 million
206 million
2004
2025

55. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
World
5 children per woman
2.8
Developed
countries
2.5
1.6
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing
countries
6.5
3.1
Africa
6.6
5.1
Latin
America
5.9
2.6
Asia
5.9
2.6
Oceania
3.8
2.1
North
America
3.5
2.0
Europe
2.6
1.4
1950
2004

56. 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Births per woman
2.1
2.0
1.5
Baby boom
( )
Replacement
level
1.0
0.5
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year

57. 47 years
Life expectancy
77 years
Married women working
outside the home 8%
81%
15%
High school graduates
83%
10%
Homes with flush toilets
98% 2%
Homes with electricity
99%
10%
Living in suburbs
52%
1900 $3
Hourly manufacturing job
wage (adjusted for inflation)
2000
$15
1.2
Homicides per
100,000 people
5.8

58. Population in millions
600
571
500
400
Population in millions
292
300
Total population
200 76
100
Projections
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year

59. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
United States
Mexico
Canada
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
294 million
Population
(2004)
106 million
32 million
Projected
population
(2025)
349 million
150million
36 million
Infant
mortality
rate
6.7 25
5.2
77 years
Life
expectancy
75 years
79 years
2.0
Total fertility
rate (TFR)
2.8
1.7
21%
% population
under age 15
35%
18%
12%
% population
over age 65 5%
13%
$36,110
Per capita
GDP PPP
$8,790
$31,892

60. China: Slowing Population Growth
Economic incentives
Free medical care
Preferential treatment
Locally administered
Very intrusive and coercive

61. India: Slowing Population Growth
Generally disappointing results:
Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support

62. India China Percentage of world 17% population 20% Population
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
22%
Population growth rate (%)
1.7%
0.6%
Total fertility rate
3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate 64 32
Life expectancy
62 years
71 years
GDP PPP per capita
$2,650
$4,520