1. Monitoring Progress on the Water and Sanitation MDGs: Human Rights and Maximum Available Resources Edward Anderson and Malcolm Langford

2. The Rights and Resources Critique of the MDGs The Millennium Development Goals have been commonly interpreted and used as national targets. But criticism: from a human rights perspective, the MDGs fail to take into account the more nuanced obligations of State’s under international law. This includes the duty to use the maximum available resources to realise social rights. The result is that the MDGs framework may wrongly reward countries for performance on social rights; favouring middle- income countries and discriminating against poorer countries

3. Even more concerning since Majority of Poverty now in Middle-Income Countries

4. Standard Measurements on MDGs Numbers of States ”On Track”

5. Alternative 1: Have countries accelerated post- 2000? (‘progressively realised’) Fukuda-Parr and Greenstein (2010; 2012)

6. Alternative 2: Have countries used their maximum available resources? We test performance on two MDG targets and UN-recognised rights, water and sanitation, from the perspective of a country’s maximum available resources. A number of proxy indicators are used to measure resources, including: GDP, dependency ratio, population shares, aid, educational levels and water resources. The relationship between resources and progress on access to water and sanitation is measured for resources at both points in time and for changes over time.

7. Access to improved water source (%) 19901995200020052010 Mean 8081838587 Mean, pop weighted 7679838688 Minimum 142222629 Maximum 100 No. of countries 164189191187174

8. Access to improved sanitation (%) 19901995200020052010 Mean 66 697172 Mean, pop weighted 4852566063 Minimum 34799 Maximum 100 No. of countries 149181189187171

9. Levels: water 12 GDP per capita (US$ PPP)4.1***4.4*** Population1.5***1.7*** Land area-2.3***-2.1*** Urban population (%)0.2***0.1*** Dependency ratio-37.0***-24.3*** Water resources-0.10.3 Average years of schooling (ages 15+)-1.2*** No. of observations720533 R2R2 0.720.75

10. Levels: sanitation 12 GDP per capita (US$ PPP)11.9***10.7*** Population1.3**1.9*** Land area-1.9***-3.0*** Urban population (%)0.1***0.1 Dependency ratio-53.9***-24.1*** Water resources-0.9**-0.3 Average years of schooling (ages 15+)-3.1*** No. of observations705533 R2R2 0.740.75

11. Changes: water 12 GDP per capita (US$ PPP)0.7 Population9.9***11.5*** Land area-- Urban population (%)0.2*** Dependency ratio-5.6**-4.4 Water resources- Average years of schooling (ages 15+)--0.1 No. of observations604430 R2R2 0.100.14

12. Changes: sanitation 12 GDP per capita (US$ PPP)1.5***1.9** Population4.0**2.5 Land area-- Urban population (%)0.4*** Dependency ratio-18.3***-12.2*** Water resources- Average years of schooling (ages 15+)-0.2 No. of observations591417 R2R2 0.22

13. Outliers: water (levels) CountryYearActual access (%) Predicted access (%) Difference Libya20005489-35 Equatorial Guinea20055183-32 Mauritania19903060-30 Madagascar19902958-29 Guinea-Bissau19903665-29 Papua New Guinea20104068-28 Sierra Leone19903866-28 Madagascar19953360-27 Papua New Guinea20003966-27 Papua New Guinea19954066-26

14. Outliers: sanitation (levels) CountryYearActual access (%) Predicted access (%) Difference Gabon20103378-45 Gabon20053373-40 Gabon19953670-34 Congo, Rep.20101852-34 Gabon20003670-34 Ghana20101448-34 Ghana20001043-33 Haiti20101750-33 Bolivia19901850-32 Bolivia19952153-32

15. Outliers: water (changes) CountryEnd yearActual change (%) Predicted change (%) Difference West Bank and Gaza2000-53-8 Yemen, Rep.1995-44-8 Algeria2000-43-7 Jordan19956-7 Algeria2005-43-7 West Bank and Gaza2005-43-7 Yemen, Rep.2000-34-7 Yemen, Rep.2005-34-7 Rwanda200006-6 Sudan1995-23-5

16. Outliers: sanitation (changes) CountryEnd yearActual change (%) Predicted change (%) Difference Djibouti2005-63-9 Jordan199508-8 Djibouti2000-53-8 Haiti2005-34-7 Gabon2005-34-7 Haiti2000-33-6 Haiti2010-24-6 Nigeria2000-23-5 Liberia200016-5 Bhutan200527-5

17. Interpretation Government capacity to improve access to water and sanitation depends various factors, including but not limited to GDP per capita By controlling for these indicators using regression analysis we can obtain a better indication of government ‘effort’ or priority attached to water and sanitation Key challenges remain in the choice of capacity indicators The method can however be used to guide more detailed, country- level analysis on progress and government efforts