1. Western Cape Government Agriculture THE WESTERN CAPE AND AFRICA IN NUMBERS: AN AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITY PERSPECTIVE Dr Dirk Troskie Director: Business Planning & Strategy 14 June 2012

2. Reality check: World Reality check: Africa Some features of Africa Ranking What others say Conclusion

3. REALITY CHECK: WORLD

4. GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH: 1950 - 2050 Source: UN Population (2008)

5. GDP: $ Billion at PPP Source: OECD (2010) RANKING 19912008 COUNTRYGDP ($ Bill.)COUNTRYGDP ($ Bill.) 1United States5 943United States (1)14 369 2Japan2 485China (6)7 927 3Germany1 588Japan (2)4 358 4France1 051India (9)3 298 5Italy1 049Germany (3)2 910 6China1 029Russian Fed. (-)2 263 7UK954UK2 186 8Brazil818France (4)2 122 9India763Brazil (8)1 985 10Mexico608Italy (5)1 872 11Spain550Mexico (10)1 545 12Canada549Spain (11)1 434 13Korea415Korea1 344 14Turkey337Canada (12)1 300 15Indonesia306Turkey (14)992 16Australia305Indonesia (15)910 17Netherlands280Australia (16)831 18Poland219Netherlands (17)675 19South Africa204Poland (18)659 20Belgium196South Africa (19)494

6. PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH: % at PPP Source: OECD (2010) RANKING 1980 - 20081999 - 2008 COUNTRY% CHANGECOUNTRY% CHANGE 1China2 278China176 2Korea907Estonia136 3India598Slovak Republic113 4Ireland569India103 5Luxembourg552Norway97 6Norway514Indonesia77 7Indonesia447Korea76 8Turkey384Hungary75 9Spain363Luxembourg73 10Portugal348Poland73 11UK325Czech Rep.72 12Netherlands316Turkey71 13Finland297Greece70 14United States288Slovenia68 15OECD total288Chile65 16Japan283South Africa62 17Australia 1 280Ireland60 18Denmark269Spain59 19Germany262Mexico57 20Austria259Brazil53........ 32South Africa161

7. WORLD TRADE Source: ITC (2012)

8. EXPORT GROWTH: Wine (1991 - 2010) Source: SAWIS (2011)

9. PROVINCIAL STRATEGIC OBJECITVE 11 Increasing opportunities for growth and development in rural areas Agricultural production Develop and implement a strategy that will support 10% agricultural growth over 10 years. Market access Support the Agricultural Sector to at least maintain its export position for the next 5 years by growing its value added from R14,014 billion in 2009. Research and Technology Collaborate with farmers and industries to execute research and to develop cutting edge technologies where agricultural production can increase by 10% over 10 years. Rural develop- ment Create an enabling environment for business in rural areas and the development of selected rural nodes to facilitate their socio- economic growth towards a sustainable future. Extension Ensure that at least 60% of all agricultural land reform projects in the Province succeed over the next 5 years..

10. SO WHAT? Structural change in demand for agricultural products. Population Ability to purchase “Financial crisis” should actually be no surprise. World trade patterns are changing. Trade is important for the Western Cape Agricultural Sector. Should we follow the herd?

11. REALITY CHECK: AFRICA

12. OUR WORLDVIEW? Source: NASA (2000)

13. SSA ECONOMIC GROWTH Source: WEF of IMF (2011)

14. GDP GROWTH (2011 – 16) (Economy % bigger by 2016) Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)

15. GDP / CAP (2011) ($) Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)

16. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (2009) (2000 $ Million) Source: FAOSTAT (2011)

17. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (1992) (2000 $ Million) Source: FAOSTAT (2011)

18. PRODUCTION GROWTH (1990/94 – 2005/09) Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)

19. AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Source: FAOSTAT (2011)

20. EFFICIENCY GAINS IN FOOD PRODUCTION Source: Alain de Janvry (2009)

21. SO WHAT? We need to challenge our traditional world view Some economies in Africa will double in size during the next 5 years. Africa has some individuals with significant purchasing power. Do not underestimate Africa’s agricultural production Our agricultural technology may make a difference

22. SOME FEATURES OF AFRICA

23. INDEX: GOVERNANCE (Index: -2,5 – 2,5) Source: IFAD (2011)

24. INFRASTRUCTURE (2009) (Index 1 – 5) Source: World Development Indicators (2011)

25. AGRICULTURAL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY: (% Growth 1998 – 2008) Source: IFAD (2011))

26. AGRICULTURAL IMPORT GROWTH (1987 - 2006) (%) Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)

27. RENEWABLE WATER / CAPITA (m 3 /Cap/year) Source: AQUASTAT (2011)

28. PRESSURE ON RENEWABLE WATER (% of renewable water used by Agriculture) Source: AQUASTAT (2011)

29. SO WHAT? Doing business in Africa will present challenges: Governance Infrastructure Africa presents immense agricultural potential Productivity gains Land Water

30. RANKING COUNTRIES

31. CATEGORIES Governance Economy Agriculture’s role in economy Population Trade Agricultural Production Agricultural Land Water

32. RANKING Source: Own calculations

33. SO WHAT? Africa is a continent of 52 countries – choose carefully

34. WHAT OTHERS SAY

35. SOUTH AFRICAN RETAILERS REGION COUNTRY SHOPRITE / CHECKERSFRUIT & VEG GAMEPICK & PAYSPAR ShopriteU-Save Southern Africa Angola35+1+? Botswana5?2+1?23 Lesotho4?1?1 Madagascar8? Malawi232 Mozambique5?1+132 Namibia14?32+1?29 Swaziland62?7 Zimbabwe1?1+125% 46435% 68 Zambia19?1+1? East Africa Mauritius3?21+12 Reunion1 Tanzania3?1 Kenya Uganda2?1 North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana111+1 Mali Cot d’Ivoure Nigeria3?1 Central Africa Cameroon Gabon CAR DRC

36. THE REALITIES OF AFRICA

38. ADAPTING TO CHANGING WORLD ORDER: Exports of Apples & Pears Source: ITC Database (2011)

39. SO WHAT? Africa presents new opportunities.

40. CONCLUSION

41. “The world it is a-changing” “Look north young man” “Afrika is nie vir sissies nie”

42. Thank you Dankie Enkosi

43. Dr Dirk Troskie Tel: (021) 808 5190 Mobile: 082 6586018 E-mail: dirkt@elsenburg.com

44. SOME NATIONAL INITIATIVES REGION COUNTRYDAFF ReportsSPEAR JADAFA / BFAPBFAP Baseline OldNew Southern Africa Angola XX Mozambique X XX Namibia Zimbabwe? East Africa Mauritius Tanzania XX Kenya X North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana Mali Cot d’Ivoure Nigeria (?) Central Africa Cameroon Gabon CAR DRC (?) Others Botswana X Egypt X Ethiopia X Sudan X Uganda X X Malawi X X Zambia X XX

45. OTHER PROVINCIAL DEPARTMENTS REGIONCOUNTRY WESGRODEDAT ReportWest Africa axisAir access Southern Africa Angola XXX Mozambique Namibia X Zimbabwe (?) East Africa Mauritius Tanzania Kenya X North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana XXX Mali Cot d’Ivoure XX Nigeria (?) XX Central Africa Cameroon XX Gabon XX CAR DRC (?) XX OthersSenegal XX

46. TOP THREE IN EACH REGION Southern Africa South Africa Angola Mozambique Namibia Zimbabwe (?) East Africa Mauritius Tanzania Kenya

47. TOP THREE IN EACH REGION North Africa Tunisia Morocco Algeria West Africa Ghana Mali Cote d’Ivoure Nigeria (?)

48. TOP THREE IN EACH REGION Central Africa Cameroon Gabon Central African Republic DRC (?)

49. AGRIC PRODUCTION PER CAPITA INDEX (2007 – 2009) (1999 – 2001 = 100) Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)

50. INEQUALITY: Gini Index (Latest year) Source: World Development Indicators