1. OCCUPATIONAL INFORMATION IN AUSTRALIA National Forum on Labour Market Information Workshop presentation Denis Hart Employment Analysis and Evaluation Group, DEWR Canberra, Australia

2. Overview of presentation Four areas of discussion: Employment projections - for industries and occupations Occupational coding – development of new occupational classification (ANZSCO) Online occupational information – Job Outlook, Job Explorer, Australian Training Matching job seekers and vacancies – moving towards ‘perfect matching’

3. Industry employment projections Recent/historical employment data – trend data from 1986, changes over 10/5/2/1 years (including % pa) Monash model forecasts – large scale, input-output based simulation model of economy/employment; includes macroeconomic scenario (cyclical variations) Service industries (where most of the ‘employment action’ happens) not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing ‘Reality’ test model forecasts and prepare ‘DEWR’ projections for around 160 industries – constant % pa for next six years (all industries agrees with Treasury ‘out year’ forecasts) ‘Preferred’ industry employment forecasts are put into Monash model – to generate alternate set of occupation projections

4. Occupational employment projections Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’ version), and actual employment growth trends Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to 2003) Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth, whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends and qualitative information on occupations (eg new technology, structural change, changes in work organisation) Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into our occupational structure Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)

5. Using employment projections Strong demand for forward-looking industry and occupation data - employment services, career exploring, education planning New ways of communicating key messages from projections (eg share of new jobs, largest contributors to future job growth) DEWR focuses on the demand side (employment portfolio), but interest in demand and supply comparisons (eg Workforce 2005) Looking at greater sharing of employment projections across government agencies (eg future graduate labour market, VET planning and industry skill needs) Employment growth is key consideration in job prospects, but job turnover, unemployment and other factors considered (eg skill shortages, main employing industries)

6. Occupational classification Australia and New Zealand are currently developing a new occupational classification structure – the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) Jointly being developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Statistics New Zealand (SNZ), with assistance from DEWR (we are closely involved with its development) This will replace the existing classification – Australian Standard Classification of Occupations (ASCO) 2 nd edition Due for implementation in 2006 Censuses in New Zealand (early 2006) and Australia (August 2006).

7. ANZSCO - overview of timeline 1986 - classification of occupations standardised with implementation of 1 st edition of ASCO Review of classification is conducted every ten years, in line with every second Australian Census 1996 - ASCO 2 nd edition implemented for Australia – nine major groups, 35 sub-major groups, 82 minor groups and 340 unit groups (and 986 ‘occupations’) ANZSCO is to be implemented in 2006 - in time for the Australian and New Zealand Censuses. A draft of the proposed occupational structure for ANZSCO is nearing completion, and user views are being sought. ICT occupations have been a particular focus – DEWR has been coordinating an ICT nomenclature working group

8. Conceptual Model ANZSCO will be a skill based classification, using the concepts of both skill level and skill specialisation to group occupations together. ANZSCO will differ from previous occupation classifications in the application of skill level. Like ASCO 2 nd edition, there will be five skill levels in ANZSCO, ranging from occupations requiring a degree and work experience (such as Specialist Medical Practitioners), to those which require only the completion of compulsory secondary schooling and no experience (eg Kitchenhands). Previously, skill level was applied at the major group level of the classification (each Major Group had only one skill level).

9. Conceptual Model (continued) In ANZSCO, skill level is applied less rigidly than previously – however, each sub-major group will be at one skill level only, with some exceptions. Responding to feedback about ASCO 2 nd edition, approach is aimed at classification being more user-friendly and intuitive at all levels, including better titling and groupings at each level. Three options were developed: (1) minor changes to ASCO 2 nd edition; (2) preferred option; and (3) a user-friendly and less conceptually rigorous option - developed by DEWR. Stakeholders have been consulted throughout the development process and will be provided with a full draft of the structure for their consideration by mid 2004.

10. Comparison of major groups ASCO 2 ND editionANZSCO Managers and administratorsManagers Professionals Associate professionalsTechnicians and trades workers Tradespersons Advanced clerical and serviceCommunity and personal service workers Intermediate clerical, sales and serviceClerical and administrative workers Intermediate production and transportSales workers Elementary clerical, sales and serviceMachinery operators and drivers Labourers Nine major groups Eight major groups

11. DEWR ‘top’ occupational structure Accounting, Finance and Management Health, Fitness, Hair and Beauty Building and Construction Cleaning Labourers, Factory and Machine Workers Clerks, Receptionists and Secretaries Marketing and Sales Representatives Computing and IT Drivers and Transport Electrical and Electronics Trades Engineering, Science and the Environment Food, Hospitality and Tourism Gardening, Farming and Fishing Media, the Arts and Printing Metal and Engineering Trades Motor Vehicle Service and Repair Sales Assistants and Storepersons Social, Welfare and Security Teaching, Child Care and Library

12. Skilled vacancies – Professionals and Trades

13. Job Outlook online - Chefs

14. Key indicators (graph) - Chefs

15. Key indicators (table) - Chefs ChefsIndicatorRank (decile) How many workers are employed in this occupation? 50,0009 What is the mix of full-time and part-time jobs? 83.9% FT5 How much do full-time workers earn on average (before tax)? $668 per week4 How does unemployment compare with other occupations? Average6 Long-term employment growth – 10 years (to May 2003) 6.3% a year8 Medium-term employment growth – 5 years (to may 2003) 3.4% a year6 Short-term employment growth – 2 years (to May 2003) 5.2% a year7 What is the likely future employment growth (to 2009-10)? strong growth++10 Is the occupation employed mainly in growth industries? highly favourable10 Job openings from turnover – how many leave the occupation? 13.7% a year7 Vacancies – does the occupation have a high vacancy level? very high9 JOB PROSPECTSVERY GOOD10

16. Job Prospects In assessing job prospects DEWR examines: Projected employment growth for the next six years (including forecasts from the ‘Monash’ model) Historical employment trends Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries Unemployment for the occupation Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes Whether there are skill shortages Job turnover - the number of workers leaving the occupation (job opportunities for new workers)

17. Sources of vacancies - Chefs

18. Educational profile - Chefs

19. Job Explorer – occupational ‘gold mine’

20. Jobjuice – for school leavers

21. Matching on Occupation Status quo for most matching, albeit with some refinements (matching on skills in ‘text’ in resumes/vacancies) Vocational profiles: job seekers select up to five ‘areas’ of interest and up to 25 occupations for matching Vacancies from Job Placement Organisations (JPOs): linked via 10,000+ keywords to occupations (unique occupation for each keyword) External vacancies (eg online recruitment sites): also coded to occupations via keywords as prelude to matching Matching could be refined through an option to match on ‘job titles’ and/or ‘skills’, aided by ‘drop down’ menus.

22. Matching on Job Title Option would be to match on ‘job title’ independent of the coded occupation Example 1: ‘hotel receptionist’ (linked to ‘receptionist’ occupation - more easily matched by hotel employer) Example 2: ‘financial analyst’, coded to ‘financial adviser’ could also be matched by accounting employer Job title matching would add precision, and ‘drop down’ menus, reflecting frequency of vacancy occurrence (see accountant), could add structure and better matching Around 2,000 job titles (guesstimate) in Australia. Keywords file of 10,500 ‘titles’ would be a way to start to developing a list of job titles.

23. Accountant – Job Titles (ranked)

24. Matching on Skills Towards ‘perfect matching’: job title and skills A ‘what employers want’ approach (vacancy focused - job seekers responding to employers’ advertised skill needs) How do we gather data on skills and their importance? Possible sources: current and recent vacancies, specialised recruiting sites, industry training packages Could focus on skills/job requirements as in vacancies, ranked by frequency (Accountants example) Other issues: employability skills (important to employers, but only partly in vacancies) and occupational requirements (eg licence for taxi driving).

25. Accountant – Skills (ranked)

26. Matching Vacancies and Job Seekers ‘ Perfect matching’ would offer matching at four levels: – Occupation (around 400 occupations – ‘receptionist’) – Occupation and skills (for ‘receptionist’ overall) – Job title (possibly around 2000 – ‘medical receptionist’) – Job title and skills (skills for ‘medical receptionist’) Key issues include: – How to ‘capture’ vacancy and job seeker information to facilitate better matching – How to improve ‘gateways’ to matching: top occupational structure and perhaps incorporate an industry focus –Incorporation of easy to use ‘drop down/click on’ menus.