1. Overview of Sample Surveys for Forecasting & Estimating U.S. Crops presented by Theresa “Terry” Holland National Agricultural Statistics Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Regional Workshop on Sampling for Agricultural Surveys 23 June 2011 Montevideo, Uruguay

2. NASS Data Series for U.S. Crops Crop Progress & Condition Area planted & harvested Production Stocks Prices Received by Farmers Monthly Marketings Values

3. U.S. Crop Standards standard weight standard moisture standard price marketing year starts: Wheat 60 lb (27.2 kg) per bushel 13.5% $/buJune 1 Barley 48 lb (21.8 kg) per bushel 14.5% $/buJune 1 Oats 32 lb (14.5 kg) per bushel 14.0% $/buJune 1 Flaxseed 56 lb (25.4 kg) per bushel 8.0% $/buJune 1 Cotton 480 lb (217.4 kg) per bale $/lbAugust 1 Rice 100 lb (45.3 kg) per hundredweight $/cwtAugust 1 Corn 56 lb (25.4 kg) per bushel 15.5% $/buSeptember 1 Sorghum 56 lb (25.4 kg) per bushel 14.0% $/cwtSeptember 1 Soybeans 60 lb (27.2 kg) per bushel 14.0% $/buSeptember 1 Sunflowers 100 lb (45.3 kg) per hundredweight 8.0% $/cwtSeptember 1

4. System of Crop Forecasts & Estimates early season area/trees planted area/trees expected for harvest during season yield forecasts end of season area/trees harvested total production end of marketing year revised total production

5. Possible Methods for Crop Forecasting & Estimation growers’ actual data area/trees planted/harvested quantities harvested/sold/stored growers’ expectations areas expected to be planted/harvested expected yields objective counts & measurements plant/fruit counts & measurements expert opinion crop progress growing conditions remote sensing

6. NASS Survey Program for Major Crops janfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsepoctnovdec Crop Yield Surveys small grains summer crops Quarterly Agricultural Surveys summer crops: planting intentionsplanted area harvest intentions –planted area harvested area production small grains: planted area harvest intentions planted area harvest intentions planted area harvested area production planted area (for harvest next year) on-farm grain stocks: storage capacity quantity stored storage capacity quantity stored small grains - final old crop storage capacity quantity stored summer crops - final old crop storage capacity quantity stored Off-farm Grain Stocks Surveys Prices Received by Farmers

7. Quarterly Agricultural Surveys sample: based on – total cropland areas of specific crops grain storage capacity data obtained: areas intended vs. actual planted vs. harvested production grain stored on farm data collection modes: mail questionnaire Internet questionnaire telephone/CATI interview personal interview

8. Crop Acreage, Yield & Production production areaxyield Quarterly Agricultural Surveys Agricultural Yield Surveys Objective Yield Surveys Quarterly Agricultural Surveys

9. Crop Yield Surveys Agricultural YieldObjective Yield samples: March & June Ag Surveys crops of interest rotated out reps exclude high strata exclude NOL crops of interest supplemental

10. Crop Yield Surveys Agricultural YieldObjective Yield commodities surveyed: small grains barley oats winter wheat durum wheat other spring wheat winter wheat summer crops corn cotton dry beans hay peanuts rice tobacco sorghum soybeans sugarcane sunflowers canola corn cotton soybeans potatoes

11. Crop Yield Surveys Agricultural YieldObjective Yield data obtained: farmer reported yields yields based on field counts & measurements area updates data collection modes: mail questionnaire Internet questionnaire telephone/CATI interview personal interview field visit personal interview

12. Crop Yield Surveys Agricultural YieldObjective Yield advantage: inexpensiveobjective disadvantage: subjectiveexpensive

13. Crop Yield Surveys small grains: May thru September summer crops: August thru November yields to reflect conditions as of 1 st of month 25 1 data collection starts 25 th of previous month

14. Objective Yield Sample Sizes number of States % of U.S. crop sample size Wheat1053%1410 Corn1084%1920 Soybeans1184%1835 Cotton675%1227 Potatoes775%1290 updated 2010

15. WHEAT n=1410 10 states average 67% of U.S. winter wheat production winter wheat in the 10 states averages 50% of U.S. production of all wheat 110 160 80 180 80 280 210 130 100 Objective Yield Sample Sizes

16. CORN n=1920 10 states average 84% of U.S. corn production 180 260 290 150 280 170 140 150

17. Objective Yield Sample Sizes SOYBEANS n=1835 11 states average 84% of U.S. soybean production 120 210 150 230 180 150 120 130 140 285

18. Objective Yield Sample Sizes COTTON n=1227 6 states average 75% of U.S. upland cotton production upland cotton in the 6 states averages 65% of U.S. production of all cotton 525 110 112 150 180

19. Objective Yield Sample Sizes POTATOES n=1290 7 states average 83% of U.S. fall potato production fall potatoes in the 7 states average 75% of U.S. production of all potatoes 155 300 160 150 200 175

20. Objective Yield Sampling Fields are selected based on area expected for harvest.

21. Objective Yield Sampling segmenttractfield crop acresexpansion factor expanded crop acres cumulative expanded crop acresselected acres 408761 130.0 53.000 6890.00 1306.11 503012 69.0 53.000 3657.00 10547.00 10269.71 50301559.053.0003127.00139674.00 60493217.053.000901.0014575.00 60493462.053.0003286.0017861.00 503122 33.0 53.000 1749.00 19610.00 19233.31 61452334.053.0001802.0021412.00 61452548.553.0002570.5023982.50 438112 65.0 194.000 12610.00 36592.50 21896.91 539113 78.0 194.000 15132.00 51724.50 37160.5146124.11 447641 105.0 106.143 11145.01 62869.51 55087.71 448512 80.0 106.143 8491.44 71360.95 64051.31 448514 100.0 106.143 10614.30 81975.25 73014.91 449451 87.0 106.143 9234.44 91209.69 81978.51 90942.11 44945248.0106.1435094.8696304.55 449453 85.0 106.143 9022.15 105326.70 99905.71 449454 100.0 106.143 10614.30 115941.00 108869.31 646714 32.0 106.143 3396.58 119337.58 117832.91 ⋮⋮⋮⋮⋮⋮ 4153169.053.000477.00895617.99 41531714.053.000742.00896359.99 interval = total expanded acres/sample size = 896359.99/100 = 8963.60 random start ∊ (0. interval] = 1306.11

22. Objective Yield Sampling Samples consist of 2 plots randomly located within each selected field. starting corner Plot 1 Plot 2

23. Objective Yield Sampling Each plot consists of a 5-foot buffer & a count area. count area Wheat3 rowsx21.6 inches Corn2 rowsx15 feet Cotton2 rowsx10 feet Soybeans2 rowsx3.5 feet Potatoes1 rowx20 feet

24. Yield Components number of fruit per acre x weight per fruit – harvest loss per acre gross yield

25. Gross Yield Components WHEAT heads per acregrain weight per head at harvest: headsgrain weight moisture content forecast: stalks heads in boot emerged heads historical average fertile spikelets grains per head head weight

26. Gross Yield Components CORN ears per acregrain weight per ear at harvest: earsgrain weight moisture content forecast: stalks ears & ear shoots ears with kernels historical average kernel row length ear diameter ear weight

27. Gross Yield Components SOYBEANS plants per acre x pods per plantbean weight per pod at harvest: plants pods bean weight moisture content forecast: plants main stem nodes lateral branches blooms, dried flowers & pods pods with beans historical average lateral branches pods with beans pod weight

28. Gross Yield Components COTTON bolls per acrelint weight per boll at harvest: open bolls large bolls lint weight moisture content forecast: squares blooms bolls burrs historical average blooms bolls large boll weight

29. Gross Yield Components POTATOES hills per acrepotato weight per hill at harvest: hillspotato weight forecast: ——

30. Harvest Loss Component gross yield – harvest loss after harvest: gleanings forecast: historical average

31. Forecasting the future is dependent on patterns of the past...

32. Current Counts & Measurements Historical Data Models Counts & Measurements ⇒ Final Yield Forecast Objective Yield Forecasting

33. Objective Yield Model #1 Number of Fruit Weight per Fruit

34. Objective Yield Model #2 Early Season Yield Forecast 06 04 97 01 96 08 95 02 98 03 09 05 07 9900 y = 0.0013x - 76.025 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 120000130000140000150000160000170000 independent variable NASS yield

35. Yield Survey Indications Objective Yield 1: ➀ regress sample level counts &/or measurements to final crop-cutting data ➁ forecast yields for each sample ➂ average sample level yields to state & regional forecasts overestimates Objective Yield 2: ➀ aggregate sample counts &/or measurements to state & region – independent variable ➁ regress independent variable to final NASS yield unbiased estimates Agricultural Yield: ➀ summarize grower reported yields using sampling weights underestimates

36. Yield Forecasting Process ➊ regress Objective Yield1 & Agricultural Yield indications to final NASS yield ➋ determine prediction intervals for each regression (± 1 SE) ➌ determine the overlap of the three prediction intervals ➍ use expert knowledge to decide where within the overlap interval to set forecast 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 OY 1OY 2AYoverlap

37. Analyzing Yield Data survey data impact of unusual reports maturity stages yield components other data relationships crop progress reports planting dates pollination dates weather data rainfall heat degree days industry contacts insect problems disease problems

38. Reliability of U.S. Crop Production Forecasts

40. Grain & Oilseed Stocks Surveys Off-farmOn-farm sample: commercial grain storage operations elevators warehouses terminals grain & oilseed processing plants other storage facilities not classified as farms farms in Agricultural Surveys

41. Grain & Oilseed Stocks Surveys Off-farmOn-farm data obtained: all whole (unprocessed) grains & oilseeds on hand or stored in permanent or temporary facilities regardless of ownership or intended use data collection modes: mail questionnaire Internet questionnaire telephone interview personal interview mail questionnaire Internet questionnaire telephone/CATI interview personal interview

42. Grain & Oilseed Prices Surveys sample: firms that purchase whole grains & oilseeds from farmers 30 States in monthly program account for 90% of all U.S. sales data obtained: quantity purchased from farmers during previous month total dollars paid for this quantity including quality discounts & premiums, excluding deductions for drying, handling, cleaning, storage, grading, checkoff fees, etc. data collection modes: mail questionnaire Internet questionnaire telephone interview personal interview

43. Crop Progress & Condition Surveys monthly Crop Production reports issued on or about 10 th day of each month reflect conditions as of 1 st day of month weekly Crop Progress & Condition reports issued 1 st business day of each week, April-November reflect status & conditions as of previous Sunday farmer activities, such as planting and harvesting progress of crops through various phenological stages of development crop, pasture & range conditions soil moisture ratings

44. Crop Progress & Condition Coverage Crop progress & condition: barley, corn, cotton, peanuts, oats, rice, sorghum, soybeans, sugarbeets, sunflowers, winter wheat, spring wheat States that account for at least 75% of area planted to crop of interest Pasture & range condition:all States except Alaska & Hawaii Soil moisture & days suitable for field work: all States except Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii & Nevada Narrative:all States At least one reporter for each agricultural county in each State

45. Corn Progress & Condition 18 states account for 92% of acres planted to corn in 2009 planted emerged silk dough dent mature harvested condition

46. Soybean Progress & Condition 18 states account for 95% of acres planted to soybeans in 2009 planted emerged bloom set pods drop leaves harvested condition

47. Winter Wheat Progress & Condition 18 states account for 89% of acres planted to winter wheat for 2010 planted emerged headed harvested condition

48. Spring Wheat Progress & Condition 6 states account for 99% of acres planted to spring wheat in 2009 planted emerged headed harvested condition

49. Cotton Progress & Condition 15 states account for 99% of acres planted to cotton in 2009 planted squaring set bolls bolls open harvested condition

50. Other Crops Progress & Condition number of States % of 2009 planted areaprogress stages Barley 581% planted, emerged, headed, harvested, condition Oats 964% planted, emerged, headed, harvested, condition Peanuts 898% planted, pegging, harvested Rice 6100% planted, emerged, headed, harvested, condition Sorghum 1198% planted, headed, coloring, mature, harvested, condition Sugarbeets 484% planted, harvested Sunflowers 485% planted, harvested

51. Crop Progress & Condition Reporters 5,000 reporters whose occupations provide frequent opportunities to observe crops and/or contact farmers in their counties Extension Service agents USDA Farm Service Agency directors NASDA enumerators Agribusiness representatives Crop advisors Farmers

52. Crop Progress & Condition Data Collection mail phone fax personal interview e-mail Internet ~ 80-85% ~

53. Crop Progress & Condition Questionnaire Required items specified weekly by HQ historical trends at national level current trends at national level “rules” States may deviate from requirements start earlier or end later for particular items additional items of interest to State All questions must use standardized wording!

54. Crop Progress & Condition Summary & Analysis County averages weighted by planted areas to State-level estimates State estimates weighted by planted areas to U.S. estimates State & U.S. progress estimates compared with last week, last year and 5-year average within-season progress cannot go backwards unusually large or small changes must be explained

55. Crop Progress & Condition Reports issued at 16:00 Eastern 1 st business day of week issued at 12:00 Eastern 2 nd business day of week issued by World Agriculture Outlook Board afternoon 2 st business day of week

56. Crop Progress & Condition Uses & Users producers agribusinesses commodities traders government agencies researchers assess current growing conditions in order to reduce inherent risks of doing business planning, decision-making, research NASS interpretation of survey results for crop yield forecasts