1. Economy 2030 (Let’s just round up from 2022…) Where we’ve been; where we’re going. Kara Markley Regional Economist U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics July 29, 2014

2. Where we’re going today... A little about BLS data Current economic situation in the U.S. and Mid-Atlantic region Employment Projections and Occupational Outlook  Economic assumptions Industry projections Occupational projections 7/29/20142

3. About the BLS 3 The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations

4. Voluntary Cooperation Nearly all of our surveys are voluntary Confidentiality is as important to the Bureau as it is to respondents We do our best to reduce respondent burden Without the cooperation of the people who participate in its surveys—people like you—the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not provide high- quality information about the economy to you We greatly appreciate the cooperation of our survey respondents. Thank You!! 4

5. Employment National, state, and metropolitan area employment data comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES), collected from business establishments. National employment levels released with the Employment Situation on the first Friday of the month. Available by industry. 5

6. Unemployment rates National: The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Regional, state & local: The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program produces data for Census regions and divisions, states, counties, metropolitan areas, and many cities, by place of residence. 6

7. Unemployment rates by state: May 2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

8. Unemployment rates in the United States and Mid-Atlantic states: May 2011-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

9. Unemployment rates for major age-sex groups, 2004-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

10. Unemployment rates by race and ethnicity, 2004-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

11. Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment, 2004-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

12. Employment Total nonfarm, 1-year and 5-year net change, Mid-Atlantic states Data are not seasonally adjusted 12

13. Employment: Percent change in total nonfarm, United States and Mid-Atlantic states Data are not seasonally adjusted 13

14. Data are not seasonally adjusted 14 Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Delaware

15. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, District of Columbia Data are not seasonally adjusted 15

16. Data are not seasonally adjusted 16 Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Maryland

17. Data are not seasonally adjusted 17 Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Pennsylvania

18. Data are not seasonally adjusted 18 Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Virginia

19. Data are not seasonally adjusted 19 Employment: Net change by industry supersector, West Virginia

20. Employment Projections 10-year projections made every 2 years 2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries BLS projections prepared at the national level only 20

21. Projections Uses Career counselors and students making career choice decisions Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations Education and training officials making decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings Researchers interested in how the economy is changing 21

22. Employment Projections Products Occupational Outlook Handbook Occupational Outlook Quarterly Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation Technical materials— replacement rates, education and training categories, and more 22

23. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Assumptions: Labor Force and Economic Conditions 23

24. In the future, we see… The economy will grow at a slower rate over the period 2012-2022. The number of people over the age of 65 will increase by 38.7 percent, while the total population increases by 10.1 percent. Housing availability will average 1.6 million per year over the decade. Investment in computers and software will increase by 109 percent. 24

25. Population and Labor Force 25 Millions of persons 2002 2012 Projected 2022 Data Source :U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. Population Growth Rate 26 Annual rates of change Data Source :U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Labor Force Participation Rates 27 Percent Total Men Women

28. Labor Force Share by Age Group 28

29. Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2012-22 29 In thousands of people

30. Labor Force Percent Change by Age Group: Projected 2012-22 30 Total labor force growth= 5.5%

31. Unemployment Rate 31

32. Employment 32 Millions of jobs Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

33. Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment 33 In millions NOTE: The interim years between 2012 and the 2022 projection point expressed by a straight dashed line are not projected values.

34. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Industry Employment 34

35. Employment by Industry Sector: 2012 35 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing

36. Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 36 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing

37. Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 37 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

38. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Occupational Employment 38

39. Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2012 39 Thousands of jobs

40. Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2012 40 Thousands of jobs

41. Percent Change vs. Numeric Change 41

42. Percent Change vs. Numeric Change Number of Instagram followers  Alicia Keys: 1,000,000  Henry: 10 Numeric increase  Alicia Keys: 50,000  Henry: 5 Percentage increase  Alicia Keys: 5%  Henry: 50% Let’s look at this concept using Instagram:

43. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group 43 Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

44. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group 44 Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

45. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group 45 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

46. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group 46 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

47. Fastest Growing Occupations 47 Percent change, projected 2012-22 Median annual wages, May 2012 $83,580 $19,910 $20,820 $39,170 $45,430 $65,860 $28,220 $53,240 $56,800 $52,160

48. Median annual wages, May 2012 $19,910 $65,470 $21,110 $20,820 $18,260 $24,420 $32,410 $30,580 $22,320 $29,990 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 48

49. Fastest Declining Occupations 49 Percent change, projected 2012-22 Median annual wages, May 2012 $35,250 $44,920 $24,310 $53,090 $32,880 $53,090 $33,020 $24,050 $56,490 $19,830

50. Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines 50 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Median annual wages, May 2012 $69,300 $56,490 $28,010 $21,270 $53,090 $18,670 $35,270 $53,090 $32,400 $28,630

51. Education and Training Classification 51 Consists of three categories of information for each occupation:  Typical education needed for entry  Work experience in a related occupation  Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

52. Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category 52 Percent change, projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

53. Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category 53 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

54. WT Median annual wages, May 2012 NN$113,530 NN$79,860 <5N$81,140 NI/R>=$187,200 NN$116,670 NN$64,290 NN$145,240 NI/R$172,020 NI/R$67,650 NN$73,660 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Doctoral or Professional Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 54

55. WT Median annual wages, May 2012 NN$49,830 NN$89,960 NI/R$40,080 NN$90,930 NN$75,400 NN$53,610 NN$69,870 <5N$64,850 5+N$86,490 NN$33,880 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Master’s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 55

56. WT Median annual wages, May 2012 <5N$95,440 NI/R$53,400 NN$63,550 NN$90,060 <5N$78,600 NN$60,300 NN$79,680 NN$99,000 NM$82,790 NI/R$53,430 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Bachelor’s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 56

57. WT Median annual wages, May 2012 NN$65,470 NN$24,420 NS$38,200 NN$41,540 NN$29,370 NN$22,700 NN$27,130 NN$34,500 NN$70,210 NL$43,640 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Associate’s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 57

58. WT Median annual wages, May 2012 NS$32,410 NS$30,580 NA$39,940 NM$35,170 NM$31,350 NS$19,510 NS$27,470 <5N$49,330 NS$25,990 NM$54,230 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 High School Diploma Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 58

59. WT Median annual wages, May 2012 NS$19,910 NS$21,110 NS$20,820 NS$18,260 NS$22,320 NS$29,990 NS$23,890 NS$19,570 <5M$22,030 NS$23,570 Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job Growth 59

60. Occupational Outlook Handbook 60 www.bls.gov/ooh

61. Education pays… 61 Median weekly earnings, 2013Unemployment rate, 2013 Average, all occupations = $827 Average, all occupations = 6.1 NOTE: Data for persons aged 25 and over.

62. Mid-Atlantic Information Office Economic Analysis & Information 215-597-DATA (597-3282) Mid-Atlantic Information Office Web site www.bls.gov/ro3 www.bls.gov/ro3 Information requests by email BLSinfoPhiladelphia@bls.gov BLSinfoPhiladelphia@bls.gov Information requests by fax 215-861-5720 7/29/201462

63. Contact Information Kara Markley Regional Economist U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov/ro3 215-861-5603 markley.kara@bls.gov