1. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 1 Using the American Community Survey for Dynamic Populations Dr. Richard Rathge Policy Analyst North Dakota Kids Count North Dakota State University Kids Count Data Workshop San Antonio, TX March 1, 2012

2. Issues to be Highlighted: 1. ACS data challenges for small and/or dynamic populations 2. New Census initiative that may be helpful in addressing ACS data limitations 2 Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012

3. 3 42% 92% Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012

4. 4 23% of all U.S. counties 49% are Great Plains counties

5. 5 ACS Data Availability by Dataset Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 85% of counties have a population base under 10,000 (55% below 5,000)

6.  5-year ACS data is limited in capturing rapid population shifts limiting policy makers’ options for monitoring changing characteristics.  Small population base creates reliability issues.  Overlapping time periods restricts comparison of 5- year ACS data on annual basis.  Disclosure issues limited type and amount of ACS data that can be explored.  PUMA data has regional and urban influence bias. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 20126

7.  Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data  Omaha city was an ACS test sites: 1997-2004 ◦ Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data 7Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012

8. 8

9. 9

10. 10 ND Ranking in oil production 9 th in 2006 6 th in 2008 4 th in 2009 3 rd in 2012 (tied with California) (only behind Texas Alaska) 12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007 Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 2,500 capacity “crew camp” authorized in 2011 with est. 19,000 workers in oil patch.

11. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 11

12. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 12 Population Change: 2002 to 2003

13. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 13

14. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 14

15. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 15 Population Change: 2008 to 2009

16. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 16 View of Energy Development Activity in the Bakken Oil Formation, Western ND Stretching an Estimated 200,00 Square Miles Source: Video from International Space Station

17. Issues to be Highlighted: 1. ACS data challenges for small and/or dynamic populations 2. New Census initiative that may be helpful in addressing ACS data limitations 17 Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012

18. ACS PUMA Map American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data Area (PUMA) 5% Sample Map for North Dakota (population threshold 100,000) Fargo Grand Forks Bismarck Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 18 Mandan

19. Rural Statistical Areas Joint Project Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 19

20. Proposed ACS PUMA Map ACS Proposed Rural Statistical Area Map for North Dakota Grand Forks Cass Bismarck Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 20

21. 21 North Dakota’s RSA & ACS Boundaries Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012

22. 22 Median Age, 2005-2009 ACS

23. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 23 Median Age, 2008 ACS

24. 24 Young Adults Ages 25 to 34 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

25. 25

26. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 26 Median Gross Rent, 2005-2009 ACS

27. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 27 Median Gross Rent, 2008 ACS

28. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 28 College Educated, 2005-2009 ACS

29. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 29 College Educated, 2008 ACS

30. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 30 Movers in Past Year, 2008

31. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 31 Median Household Income, 2005-2009 ACS MOE 46,953 =/+- 4,226 MOE 49,013 =/+- 7,292 MOE 46,821 =/+- 5,620

32. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 32 Median Household Income, 2008 ACS

33.  Need to partner with other data providers in exploring alternative data sets.  Examine ways to triangulate data for small jurisdictions to ensure confidence in our interpretations.  Explore innovative ways of combining geographic units within Census to increase unit size. Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 201233

34. 34  Dr. Richard Rathge, Policy Analyst North Dakota KIDS COUNT North Dakota State University IACC 424, Dept. 8000, PO Box 6050 Fargo, ND 58108-6050 Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012