WHERE IS THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY? CAN THIS BE THE NEW GENERATION?! WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN.

WHERE IS THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY? CAN THIS BE THE NEW GENERATION?! WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS COURSE PARADIGMS AND PROBLEM SHIFTS IN SOCIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA TENTH AND LAST MEETING JANUARY 20, 2013

I HAVE BEEN ACTIVE IN RESEARCH COMMITTEE 28 ON STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION WHEN THIS OLDER PERSON MET NEWCOMERS, THE COMPLIMENT OF NEWCOMERS OFTEN WAS THAT ONE RECEIVES GOOD COMMENTS IN RC28 I HAVE SOMETIMES REPLIED AS FOLLOWS: I AND OTHER OLDER RC28 MEMBERS MAY TELL YOU THAT YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION IS WRONG: LATER RC28 GENERATIONS ARGUED THAT EARLIER GENERATIONS POSED ISSUES POORLY

AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN AROUND IN RC28 FOR A LONGER TIME I CAME TO DISTINGUISH PAPERS ACCORDING TO GENERATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME THINGS HAPPENED IN RC28 THAT MARKED A BIG BREAK WITH THE PAST AND THESE MAIN EVENTS MADE RESEARCH OF THE OLDER GENERATION NOT ONLY ANTIQUATED, BUT FIT FOR THE DUSTBIN

MY CRITICAL LEARNING PERIOD IN RC28 SOCIOLOGY INCLUDED THE COVER OF A NOW DEFUNCT BRITISH WEEKLY

THE COVER STEMS FROM RIGHT BEFORE THE 1980 PUBLICATION OF GOLDTHORPE, SOCIAL MOBILITY AND CLASS STRUCTURE IN MODERN BRITAIN AND OF HALSEY, HEATH & RIDGE, ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS THESE STUDIES MARKED A NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH IN SOCIAL MOBILITY NEW SOCIETY DID NOT NOTE THIS SHIFT FROM THE GLASS GENERATION TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION

THE EASY BUT SOMETIMES MISLEADING WAY OF RECOGNIZING GENERATIONS IN PAPERS IS LOOKING AT METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS THERE ARE A LOT OF METHODS, AND SOMETIMES A PERVASIVE SHIFT OCCURS FROM ONE METHOD TO ANOTHER: FIRST GENERATION SECOND GENERATION THIRD GENERATION FOURTH GENERATION FIFTH GENERATION LIPSET 1956 DUNCAN 1967 GOLDTHORPE 1978 BLOSSFELD 1986 ??? PERCENTAGES LINEAR REGRESSION ODDS RATIO’S EVENT HISTORY MODELS ???

FIFTH GENERATION ??? FROM STANDARD LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MODELS IS NO BIG THING FROM LOGLINEAR MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MULTI-NOMINAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS IS NO BIG THING HECKMAN CORRECTION FOR SELECTION BIAS IS NO BIG THING IMPUTATION OF MISSING VALUES IS NO BIG THING

GENERATIONS ARE NOT MARKED BY NEW METHODS THE NEW GENERATION IMPLIES AND SOMETIMES ANNOUNCES LOUDLY THAT RESEARCH QUESTIONS OF THE OLD GENERATION POSE THE ISSUE POORLY THE OLD GENERATION USED METHODS THAT INCORPORATE HYPOTHESES THAT ARE PRECISELY AT ISSUE

LE MONDE IN 2007 SHOWED A RISE IN THE PERCENT OF DOWNWARDLY MOBILE FRENCH PERSONS WHY IS DOWNWARD MOBILITY INCREASING? THIS QUESTION POSES THE ISSUE POORLY IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PERCENT OF PEOPLE WITH THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE ORIGIN IS GROWING EVEN WHEN THE CHANCES OF PERSONS FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL RISE, THE PERCENT DOWNWARD MOBILITY MAY RISE DUNCAN DROPPED QUESTIONS ABOUT ‘DIFFERENCE SCORES’ THE SECOND GENERATION ASKS AFTER THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ORIGIN AND DESTINATION

OF COURSE, IN FRANCE THE RELATION BETWEEN ORIGIN AND DESTINATION MEASURED BY A CORRELATION OR BY ODDS RATIO’S MAY HAVE BECOME WEAKER TOO BUT IS THIS SOMETHING TO DEPLORE POLITICALLY?

THERE MAY BE TWO PROCESSES BEHIND A LOWER ASSOCIATION FIRST, THAT PEOPLE FROM LOW ORIGIN WHO ATTAINED A DIPLOMA NOWADAYS DO LESS WELL SECOND, THAT PEOPLE FROM HIGH ORIGIN WHO DID NOT ATTAIN A HIGH DIPLOMA ONCE DID WELL, BUT NOWADAYS WIND UP LOWER

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS BETWEEN TWO STEPS ON A LADDER BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF STEPS ON A LADDER SO THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2 DIFFERS FROM THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3 WHEN COMPUTING LINEAR REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ALL ORIGINS AND ALL DESTINATIONS IS UNIFORM YET THERE MAY BE HYPOTHESES STATING THAT IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2 THAN FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3 THAT IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THE THIRD GENERATION COMPUTED A SET OF ODDS RATIO’S

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS OF PERSONS BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME TO AVOID MISGUIDED QUESTIONS, THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS IN TIME SHOULD BE EQUAL FOR ALL INVESTIGATED PERSONS HOWEVER, THE STANDARD RESEARCH DESIGN OF OLDER GENERATIONS COLLECTS FOR A RANDOM SAMPLE OF A COUNTRY’S POPULATION THEIR CLASS AT AGE 14 AND THEIR CLASS AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY

EVERY GENERATION RAISED THE QUESTION OF WHETHER SOCIAL MOBILITY IS STABLE THIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY DATA FOR THE ORIGIN AT SOME FIXED AGE AND THE CURRENT JOB OF ALL THE MEMBERS OF ONE SOCIETY AT ONE POINT IN TIME HOWEVER, SOME SAID THAT AT AROUND AGE 35, ‘OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY’ SETS IN IF THIS IS THE CASE, A COMPARISON OF COHORTS ABOVE 35 DOES THE TRICK BUT THE MATURITY THESIS BEGS THE QUESTION: THE AGE OF MATURITY MAY VARY BETWEEN COHORTS

TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT INCREASING OR DECREASING MOBILITY WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY THE FOURTH GENERATION PROPOSED THE COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES FOR ALL MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY DATA FOR OCCUPATIONAL TRAJECTORIES ALLOW FOR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT AGE-, COHORT AND PERIOD EFFECTS

THE FOURTH GENERATION DID NOT ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS IT DID NOT CAME AROUND TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CAREERS ARE SELF-REINFORCING: IF A PERSON HAPPENS TO START OUT AT A HIGHER JOB AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL WITH SPECIFIC CREDENTIALS, WILL THAT PERSON DO BETTER LATER ON JUST BECAUSE OF THIS HIGHER FIRST JOB? THAT QUESTION WAS ANSWERED BY THE ARROW FROM FIRST TO PRESENT JOB IN DUNCAN’S SECOND-GENERATION PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE LIFE REMAINS MESSY IN RC28

SO, AT RC28 MEETINGS I LOOK OUT FOR NEWCOMERS WHO DECLARE THE QUESTIONS OF OLDER GENERATIONS WRONG BUT IN THE COURSE OF TIME I HAVE HEARD QUITE A FEW MEMBERS OF OLDER GENERATIONS SAY THAT QUESTIONS OF NEWCOMERS ARE WRONG

FROM THE EXEMPLAR OF FIRST GENERATION TO THE EXEMPLAR OF THE THIRD GENERATION RC28 RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT MEN ONLY ARE THESE GAPS BEING FILLED BY QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN? DO THESE QUESTIONS ELIMINATE THE ERRORS OF OLDER GENERATIONS?

THE ISSUE OF WOMEN’S ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY IF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF STEPS A MAN ROSE ARE MISGUIDED, QUESTIONS ABOUT WIFE’S INCOME AS A PERCENT OF HUSBAND’S INCOME ARE MISGUIDED TOO THE 50-50 COUPLES ARE A MIXED BAG, DEPENDING UPON THE AVERAGE INCOME OF THE COUPLE ANNEMETTE SORENSEN & SARAH MCLANAHAN AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY I987

IT IS WISE TO RAISE A STRING OF FOUR QUESTIONS SO AS NOT TO JUMP ON THE TRAIN OF DEPENDENCY: 1. IS THE (HOURLY) INCOME OF A WIFE HIGHER, IF HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER (HOURLY) INCOME? 2. DOES A WIFE’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HET OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION OF HER HUSBAND? 3. DOES A HUSBAND’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HIS OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE? 4. IS THERE STILL A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WIFE’S AND HUSBAND’S INCOME AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS?

THE ISSUE OF THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIME WOMEN SPEND ON HOUSEHOLD CHORES RELATIVE TO THE TIME THEIR HUSBAND DOES SO ARE MISGUIDED THERE IS A 50-50 DIVISION OF LABOUR IF BOTH PARTNERS ARE SLUTTISH AND IF THEY BOTH HAVE A POLLUTION PHOBIA THE PROPER SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS: 1. ARE THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES POSITIVELY RELATED? 2. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES OWN CLASS EXPLAIN THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND OF WIVES? 3. DOES THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES PERSIST AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CLASS HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS? WHEN ESTIMATING MODELS ALSO STUDY INTERCEPTS!

THE FIRST GENERATION DID NOT SUCCEED IN APPLYING ITS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCALES WHEN ANSWERING MOBILITY QUESTIONS THE SECOND GENERATION DID SUCCEED IN THIS, LEADING TO STATUS ATTAINMENT RESEARCH THE THIRD GENERATION OBJECTED AGAINST PRESTIGE GRADIENTS, SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WOULD CONSIST OF A LIMITED NUMBER OD DISCRETE CLASSES HOWEVER, UNLIKE MARXIST SOCIOLOGY, THE THIRD GENERATION DID NOT ASSERT THAT THE MIDDLE CLASSES WERE DISAPPEARING, NOR THAT THE RELATIVE SIZE OF THE HIGHEST CLASSES WAS GETTING SMALLER THE CLASS SCHEMA DOMINANT AT PRESENT IN THE EUROPEAN WING OF RC28 CONSISTS OF TEN CLASSES BUT THESE CLASSES RIGHT NOW ARE BEING DISQUALIFIED AS MACRO-CLASSES AND THE SCHEMA IS BEING CHALLENGED BY THE IDEA OF MICRO-CLASSES THIS LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A STATUS GRADIENT

RIGHT NOW I AM INTERESTED IN RATHER DIFFERENT QUESTIONS AND SQUARE TABLES I TRY TO MAKE A SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS THAT DRILLS DEEPER AND DEEPER A MORE AND MORE SPECIFIC SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN: 1. IS THE PERCENT OF EMPLOYED WOMEN APPROACHING THAT OF EMPLOYED MEN? 2. ARE WOMEN WITH A JOB UNDER- REPRESENTED AMONG THE HIGHEST CLASSES AND THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST PRESTIGE (EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THEIR EDUCATION AND LABOUR FORCE EXPERIENCE)? 3. ARE HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN UNDER- REPRESENTED AMONG THE SUPERVISORS?

AFTER EACH MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION, RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS RAISED EXPLANATORY QUESTIONS THE ANSWERS ALMOST ALWAYS AMOUNT TO HYPOTHESES ABOUT DISCRIMINATION - DISCRIMINATION BY MEN IF MEN ARE DISCRIMINATING AGAINST WOMEN, THIS SHOULD SHOW UP IN SITUATIONS WHERE MEN AND WOMEN DEAL WITH EACH OTHER SO MY DEEPER QUESTIONS ARE: 4. IF HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN ARE SUPERVISING, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUPERVISING WOMEN RATHER THEN MEN? EVEN MORE TO THE POINT: 5. HOW MANY MEN HAVE A WOMAN AS A SUPERVISOR?

THE NETHERLANDS IN 2009 GENDER OF SUPERVISOR MALEFEMALE 88 %12 % 56 %44 % THE ODDS RATIO FOR THIS TABLE: 5.8 GENDER OF MALE EMPLOYED PERSONFEMALE

THE HIGHER CLASSES OF THE IN RC 28 DOMINANT CLASS SCHEMA ARE CONTAINING AN EVER HIGHER PERCENT OF A COUNTRY’S LABOUR FORCE FOR SEVERAL COUNTRIES NOW RC28 MEMBERS ESTABLISHED A TREND TOWARDS MORE RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY FOR MOST COUNTRIES IN THE PAST DECADES THE GINI FOR INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN RISING (HOW) CAN THESE FINDINGS BE SQUARED? DOES THIS JUXTAPOSITION INDICATE THAT RC28 SHOULD MOVE BEYOND THE PRESENT CLASS SCHEMA? RATHER THAN STATUS ATTAINMENT AND MACRO OR MICRO CLASS MOBILITY, SHOULD RC28 STUDY INCOME MOBILITY?

THE TRENDS IN RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY ESTABLISHED BY RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS REFER TO THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR 2 AND SOMETIMES TO THE FULL 20TH CENTURY DEPENDING UPON THE COUNTRY, THE RISE OF THE GINI PERTAINS TO THE LAST THREE OR FOUR THREE DECADES AND WHEREAS MOBILITY PERTAINS TO PERSONS TAKEN ON THEIR OWN GINI’S PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS WITHIN HOUSEHOLDS

TO WHAT EXTENT DID THE GINI SINCE 1975 RISE BECAUSE OF 1. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MACRO CLASS ON EARNINGS? 2. A STRONGER EFFECT OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS? 3. MORE ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS AND MORE LONE MOTHERS? 4. LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS? 5. MORE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY? 6. A STRONGER RISE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR HIGHLY AS COMPARED WITH LOWELY EDUCATED WIVES? 7. A STRONGER EFFECT OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS? 8. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MICRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?

BETTER CANDIDATES FOR FIFTH GENERATION RESEARCH? ROBERT MARE’S PLEA IN DEMOGRAPHY OF 2011 FOR A SHIFT FROM THE TWO-GENERATION MODELS OF ALL PREVIOUS GENERATIONS TO THREE GENERATION MODELS I POSIT AS A WEAK ALTERNATIVE A SHIFT FROM ONE-PARENT TO TWO- PARENTS MODELS

I HAVE HEARD IT SAID THAT THREE GENERATION QUESTIONS ARE SUPERFLUOUS: HOW CAN THE THIRD GENERATION HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE? ANY INFLUENCE MUST BE INDIRECT! I HAVE HEARD IT SAID THAT THREE GENERATION QUESTIONS CAPITALIZE ON MEASUREMENT ERROR: IF FATHER’S JOB LEVEL IS MEASURED WITH ERROR, WHICH IT ALWAYS IS, THE MEASUREMENT ERROR SHOWS UP AS AN EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S JOB LEVEL

I HAVE HEARD IT SAY THAT ONE OF MARE’S ARGUMENTS AGAINST TWO-GENERATION MODELS IS NOT RIGHT MARE HOLDS THAT THE MARGINAL DISTRIBUTION FOR FATHER’S JOB OR EDUCATION IN A SQUARE MOBILITY TABLE DOES NOT PERTAIN TO ALL MEN LIVING AT ONE POINT IN TIME AND THAT FATHERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN SAMPLED IF THEIR NUMBER OF CHILDREN WAS HIGHER EARLIER GENERATIONS SURELY INTERPRETED FATHERS’ MARGINAL IN THIS WRONG WAY

I WOULD SAY THAT IT IS EASY TO DEAL WITH THE OVERREPRESENTATION OF MEN WITH MORE CHILDREN: ENTER THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN INTO THE REGRESSION MODEL AND I WOULD SAY THAT IT IS A GOOD THING THAT MEN WITHOUT CHILDREN DROP OUT

DUNCAN ALREADY SAID THAT THERE ARE WRONG INTERPRETATIONS OF MARGINAL FOR FATHERS IN A MOBILITY TABLE BUT HE CAME UP WITH A GOOD ONE AND GOLDTHORPE WITH AN EVEN BETTER ONE SONS COMPETE ON THE BASIS OF RESOURCES FOR BETTER JOBS AND ONE OF THEIR RESOURCES, NEXT TO EDUCATION, IS THEIR FATHER’S JOB LEVEL OR HIS EDUCATION

IT IS GOOD THAT MEN WITHOUT CHILDREN DROP FROM THE SAMPLE, PRECISELY BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CHILDREN THEIR RESOURCES ARE WASTED SINCE THEY DO NOT HAVE CHILDREN WHO COMPETE FOR BETTER JOBS

IT MAY BE EASY TO EXPLAIN A BIVARIATE RELATION BETWEEN GRANDFATHER’S AND SON’S JOB LEVEL, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THIS EXPLANATION FULLY WORKS JUST AS IT WAS POSSIBLE TO ACCOUNT FULLY FOR DOUBLE (UN)EMPLOYMENT IN COUPLES BY EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON (UN)EMPLOYMENT

SO, LET US GIVE THREE GENERATION STUDIES SOME CREDIT AND LET US WAIT UNTIL WE HAVE RESULTS BEFORE WE HERALD IT AS THE NEXT GENERATION OF RESEARCH

THE FIFTH GENERATION (SEEMINGLY) DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION: IS SON’S JOB (OR EDUCATION?) NOT ONLY HIGHER IF HIS FATHER HAD A HIGHER JOB (EDUCATION?) TOO, BUT ALSO IF, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, HIS GRANDFATHER HAD A HIGHER JOB (EDUCATION?) TOO?

THIS QUESTION BECOMES A QUESTION LOADED WITH MORE THEORETICAL IMPORT WHEN VIEWED AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF THREE MAJOR SOCIOLOGICAL PUBLICATIONS FROM 1980

1980: GOLDTHORPE CLASS STRUCTURE AND SOCIAL MOBILITY IN BRITAIN 1980: COLLINS THE CREDENTIAL SOCIETY 1979: BOURDIEU LA DISTINCTION

GOIN’ BACK QUESTION: IS BRITAIN STILL A CLASS SOCIETY? WHAT’S IT GONNA BE QUESTION: WILL CREDENTIALS BECOME MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES LIKE THE USA? SHIFTING MECHANISMS QUESTION: LESS REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY BY THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES? MORE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH THE TRANSMISSION OF CULTURAL RESOURCES? AND MORE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY THROUGH AN INCREASE IN EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY?

IF TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES, AS INDICATED BY FATHER-SON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY, ARE LESS AND LESS CLASS SOCIETIES AND MORE AND MORE CREDENTIAL SOCIETIES THEN THE QUESTION OF CREDENTIAL MOBILITY GAINS THE UPPERHAND OVER THE QUESTION OF CLASS MOBILITY OR PRESTIGE MOBILITY

BREAKING DOWN THE QUESTION OF INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY INTO THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF CLASS ORIGINGS ON EDUCATION AND THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON CLASS DESTINATION DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH: INTERGENERATIONAL CREDENTIAL MOBILITY IS INTERESTING IN ITSELF MULTIVARIATE MODELS HIGHLIGHT DIRECT (NET) EFFECTS, WHEREAS TOTAL EFFECTS ARE MORE IMPORTANT AND SINCE MODELS OFTEN ARE NOT RECURSIVE, INDIRECT EFFECTS REMAIN UNDERSTUDIED

THE TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT: WHEREAS THE QUESTION OF SOCIAL ORIGIN AND EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT IS ABOUT FAMILIES AND STATES THE QUESTION ABOUT EDUCATION AND DESTINATION IS ABOUT THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND ABOUT LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGICALLY DRIVEN CHANGES IN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURES

BY DONATING AND BEQUESTING WEALTH TO THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS ONCE REPRODUCED CLASS INEQUALITY BY SPENDING TIME AND DOING THINGS WITH THEIR CHILDREN, PARENTS NOWADAYS REPRODUCE CREDENTIAL INEQUALITY SINCE PARENTS NOWADAYS LIVE LONGER, THE TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL RESOURCES IS DELAYED WHEREAS MORE CULTURAL RESOURCES ARE BEING TRANSMITTED

OUR OWN HYPOTHESIS, RENDERING THREE-GENERATION QUESTIONS INTERESTING: THE INCREASE IN LONGEVITY IS SO STRONG THAT NOT ONLY THE LIFE SPAN OF PARENTS AND CHILDREN OVERLAP MORE THE LIFE SPAN OF THESE CHILDREN AND THE LIFE SPAN OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS ALSO OVERLAP MORE IN CONTEMPORARY SOCIETIES THERE WILL BE A STRONGER DIRECT EFFECT OF THE EDUCATION OF GRANDPARENTS (FIRST GENERATION) ON EDUCATION IN THE THIRD GENERATION (CHILDREN)

FIRST GENERATION SECOND GENERATION THIRD GENERATION 1946 - ?? 1976 1907 - 1979 1910 - 1983 1937 1862 – 1950 1947 1880 - 1960 1955

FOR CHILDREN TO BE BORN, A MOTHER AND A FATHER ARE NECESSARY THEREFORE INTERGENERATIONAL QUESTIONS AS FATHER-SON QUESTIONS MAY BE OFF THE MARK CREDENTIALS IN THE THIRD GENERATION DEPEND UPON CREDENTIALS OF MOTHERS AND FATHERS IN THE SECOND GENERATION THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF A SECOND GENERATION HUSBAND, THE HIGHER THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE NET OF THIS, THE CREDENTIALS OF HIS WIFE ALSO MAY BE HIGHER IF HIS FATHER (FIRST GENERATION) HAS HIGHER CREDENTIALS TOO

FIRST SECOND THIRD SPOUSE SECOND ???

SO, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF CREDENTIALS IN THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE CREDENTIALS OF THE THIRD GENERATION MAY CONSIST OF 1) A DIRECT EFFECT PLUS 2) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION PLUS 3) AN INDIRECT EFFECT BY WAY OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE IF NO DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST ON THE THIRD GENERATION IS FOUND, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS NO TOTAL EFFECT OF THE FIRST ON THE THIRD GENERATION

THE SECOND ??? IS A !!! FOR THE NETHERLANDS WE HAVE INDEED FOUND THAT A MAN (WOMAN) HAS A SPOUSE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION IF THAT PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION AND, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, IF THE FATHER OF THIS PERSON HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION SEE DE GRAAF, SMEENK, ULTEE & TIMM, THE WHEN AND WHOM OF FIRST MARRIAGE IN THE NETHERLANDS IN (EDITORS) BLOSSFELD & TIMM, WHO MARRIES WHOM?, 2003 THE FINDINGS WERE MADE BY COMBINING TWO SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE NETHERLANDS, IN 1992 AND 1998

WARREN & HAUSER 1997 DID NOT FIND A DIRECT EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD GENERATION FOR PERSONS LEAVING HIGH SCHOOL IN 1957 IN WISCONSIN, USA EROLA & MOISIO 2007 FOUND ALMOST NO DIRECT OF GRANDPARENTS’ CLASS ON CHILDREN’S CLASS FOR FINLAND 1950-2000 CHAN IN 2011 AT THE SPRING MEETING OF RC28 IN ESSEX AND THE SPRING MEETING OF RC28 IN HONG KONG PRESENTED FINDINGS ON THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOWING THAT FIRST GENERATION CLASS HAS A DIRECT EFFECT ON THIRD GENERATION CLASS, NET OF SECOND GENERATION CLASS AND EDUCATION (IN SAMPLES OF SOME 2,000, 6,000 AND 4,000 THIRD GENERATION PERSONS)

AT THE SUMMER 2011 MEETING OF RC28 IN IOWA CITY, USA MARE PLEADED IN FAVOR OF THREE-GENERATION QUESTIONS MARE ACCEPTED THAT IN TECHNOLOGICALLY HIGHLY DEVELOPED SOCIETIES THE THIRD GENERATION HAS NO DIRECT EFFECT IN THE BROAD MIDDLE OF THE SOCIAL SCALE, BUT DOES HAVE EFFECTS AT THE TOP AND BOTTOM THESE EFFECTS ARE INTERACTIONS, THE FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION DO MORE IN COMBINATION THAN EACH GENERATION DOES ON ITS OWN MARE ALSO WANTS TO STUDY THE SIZE OF THE EFFECT OF THE FIRST GENERATION ON THE THIRD GENERATION IN CHINA, BEFORE THE ADVENT OF INDUSTRIALISM THE MOST DEVELOPED AGRARIAN SOCIETY THE WORLD EVER KNEW

MY HYPOTHESIS HERE IS THAT IN THE CONTEMPORARY NETHERLANDS, BECAUSE OF THE GENERAL INCREASE IN LONGEVITY, THE TOTAL EFFECT OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION ON THIRD EDUCATION IS GROWING CHILDREN NOWADAYS LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS, WITH THEIR GRANDPARENTS LIVING APART BUT CHILDREN VISIT THEIR GRANDPARENTS AND THE GRANDPARENTS DO THEIR BEST TO MAKE THIS STAY ENJOYABLE FOR THEIR GRANDCHILDREN FOR THE CHILDREN THIS STAY IS QUALITY TIME

OUR DATA PERTAIN TO THE NETHERLANDS AND WERE COLLECTED IN FIVE SIMILAR SURVEYS CALLED THE F AMILY SURVEY D UTCH P OPULATION ABBREVIATED IN DUTCH FNB IN SOUTH AFRICA THIS IS A BANK YEARS OF SURVEY: 1992 1998 2000 2003 2009

IN EACH SURVEY YEAR ABOUT 1,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE INTERVIEWED IF THEY WERE OFFICIALLY MARRIED OR LIVING IN A COMMON-LAW MARRIAGE, THEIR PARTNERS WERE INTERVIEWED TOO IF A PARENT WAS STILL ALIVE, THAT PARENT RECEIVED A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE IF A CHILD WAS 25 YEARS OR OLDER, THAT CHILD RECEIVED A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE

ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS (SECOND GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF THEIR FATHER AND MOTHER (FIRST GENERATION) THE PRESENT SPOUSE OF EACH PRIMARY RESPONDENT WAS ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF HER OR HIS FATHER AND MOTHER ALL PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED AFTER THE EDUCATION OF ALL THE CHILDREN (THIRD GENERATION) THEY HAVE WITH THEIR PRESENT SPOUSE IN THE MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE CHILDREN (THIRD GENERATION) AND PARENTS (FIRST GENERATION) WERE ASKED AFTER THEIR EDUCATION

SO, WE HAVE TWO MEASURES FOR THIRD GENERATION AND FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION WE WILL ASSUME IN LATER RESEARCH THAT PROXY MEASURES ARE LESS ACCURATE THAN FIRSTHAND MEASURES WE WILL NOT ESTIMATE FIRSTHAND STATISTICAL MODELS HERE AT LEAST IN OUR FIRST SURVEY YEAR WE - UNDERSTANDABLY - DID NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH SECOND GENERATION CASES WITH DOUBLE MEASURES FOR THE FIRST GENERATION AND FOR THE THIRD GENERATION

FROM OUR FIVE SURVEYS, WITH SOME 5,000 PRIMARY RESPONDENTS WE EXTRACTED 2,400 CHILDREN 25 YEARS OR OLDER SOMETIMES MORE THAN ONE CHILD PER PARENT, (WE APPLIED A CLUSTER CORRECTION TO THE STANDARD ERRORS) FOR THESE PERSONS WE HAVE VALID SCORES FOR OWN EDUCATION, FATHER’S EDUCATION, MOTHER’S EDUCATION, EDUCATION OF FATHER’S FATHER, EDUCATION OF FATHER’S MOTHER, EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S FATHER, AND EDUCATION OF MOTHER’S MOTHER

RESULTS OF A TABULAR ANALYSIS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION WHEN HOLDING CONSTANT FOR FATHER’S EDUCATION, FOR THOSE WITH A HIGHLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS NO EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION FOR THOSE WITH A LOWLY EDUCATED FATHER, THERE IS A POSITIVE EFFECT OF GRANDFATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION SO, THERE IS AN INTERACTION EFFECT, BUT NOT THE ONE PREDICTED BY MARE

Table 3. Relationship between education of grandparents and child by education parents (row %) Father No tertiaryTertiary Child No tertiaryTertiaryNo tertiaryTertiary Father's fatherNo tertiary70303169 Tertiary53472872 Odds ratio's: 2.08 and 1.12 Mother No tertiaryTertiary Child No tertiaryTertiaryNo tertiaryTertiary Mother's fatherNo tertiary65352971 Tertiary54462872 Odds ratio's: 1.61 and 1.02 Source: Family Survey Dutch Population, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2009

THEN WE ESTIMATED LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WE RECODED LEVELS OF EDUCATION ACCORDING THE NUMBER OF YEARS PEOPLE MINIMALLY STUDY FOR A CREDENTIAL WE PLAYED AROUND BY ESTIMATING TWELVE MODELS WHEN CONSIDERING ALL CHILDREN, THERE IS A EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION BUT IT BECOMES INDIRECT UPON THE INTRODUCTION OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION THIS FINDING REPEATS ITSELF FOR WOMEN, BUT NOT FOR MEN IN THE SEPERATE COHORTS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE FOUND OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION

FINALLY WE ESTIMATED LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS WITH THE ODDS OF TERTIARY CREDENTIALS VERSUS LOWER CREDENTIALS AS THE PHENOMENON TO BE PREDICTED WE PLAYED ONCE MORE AROUND WITH MODELS FOR ALL THIRD GENERATION PERSONS, THERE IS NO DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION ON CHILD’S EDUCATION, THAT DIRECT EFFECT IS NOT THERE EITHER FOR MALE CHILDREN OR FEMALE CHILDREN SEPERATELY

WHEN CONSIDERING THE EARLIER COHORT, THERE IS AN INSIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION IN THE LATER COHORT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT TOTAL EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION AND A DIRECT EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION, NET OF FATHER’S EDUCATION WHEN BRINGING IN MOTHER’S EDUCATION, THE EFFECT OF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION BECOMES ALMOST FULLY INDIRECT THIS TELLS ABOUT INDIRECT EFFECTS OF FIRST GENERATION EDUCATION BY WAY OF THE EDUCATION OF THE SECOND GENERATION SPOUSE THAT IS WHY I SAY THAT IT IS BETTER TO SHIFT FROM ONE-PARENT TO TWO-PARENTS MODELS THAN FROM TWO-GENERATIONS TO THREE- GENERATIONS MODELS

THERE MAY BE NO DIRECT THIRD GENERATION EFFECT IF THE TWO GENERATION MODEL IS NOT A ONE-PARENT MODEL BUT A TWO-PARENTS MODELS

THIS PRESENTATION OBVIOUSLY IS A REPORT ON WORK IN PROGRESS WE STILL WANT TO ESTIMATE RECURSIVE MODELS WE HAVE TO DEVISE A BETTER TEST OF CHANGES IN THE COURSE OF TIME BY RECODING YEAR OF BIRTH NOT INTO TWO CATEGORIES, BUT BY TAKING IT IS A METRIC (PERHAPS ACCORDING TO SOME MEASURE FOR LIFE EXPECTANCY) WE STILL HAVE TO APPLY CORRECTIONS BY REPLACING PROXY MEASURES FOR THE FIRST AND THIRD GENERATION BY FIRSTHAND MEASURES (BUT WE DO NOT HAVE THEM FOR EVERYONE IN OUR SAMPLE)

IF THERE IS MEASUREMENT ERROR IN FATHER’S EDUCATION WILL IT GO INTO FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION IF FATHER’S FATHER’S EDUCATION IS MEASURED WITH MORE ERROR THAN FATHER’S EDUCATION?

Table 6. Measurement error in education, multiple measurements Answer according to parent Answer according to child Answer according to grandparent Corre- lation between answers Simila- rity in answers (%)N YearsTertiaryYearsTertiaryYearsTertiaryYearsTertiary Child14.14113.836--0.8392133 Father's father10.916--10.9150.7487126 Father's mother8.61--8.420.7299206 Mother's father11.020--10.2130.7691113 Mother's mother8.63--8.720.6898267 Source: Family Survey Dutch Population, 1998 blue if difference between answers is significant at p < 0.01; red if difference is significant at p < 0.05

AS YET, I DO NOT FEEL HOPELESS ABOUT MY BOURDIEU HYPOTHESES ALL MY POWERPOINTS FROM HAIFA WILL BE POSTED ON MY WEBSITE TYPE IN GOOGLE WOUT ULTEE CLICK THE FIRST HIT, GO ON THE LEFT TO PRESENTATIONS, THEN TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS THERE YOU WILL FIND THE POWERPOINTS

WHERE IS THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY? CAN THIS BE THE NEW GENERATION?! WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN.

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WHERE IS THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY? CAN THIS BE THE NEW GENERATION?! WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN.

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Presentation on theme: "WHERE IS THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY? CAN THIS BE THE NEW GENERATION?! WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN."— Presentation transcript:

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