1. Exam 3 Content Materials New Venture Development Spring 2013

2. Major content areas 1.How venture capital works 2.How venture capitalists evaluate opportunities 3.The four pillars of growth 4.Business model generation 5.Business planning

3. How venture capital works Zider, R. 1998. How venture capital works, Harvard Business Review, November-December, 131-139

4. VCs invest in high potential growth companies that will be game changers in their industries.

5. If you work in an industry that is attracting attention from VCs, be ready for radical change

6. VC system works for Entrepreneurs Institutional investors Investment bankers Venture capitalists

7. Zider, 1998

8. Filling the void Venture capital plays an important role in the stage of the company’s innovation life cycle when it begins to commercialize its innovation > 80% of VC $ goes into building infrastructure needed to grow the business – in expense investments (mfrg capacity, marketing, sales) and the balance sheet (working capital and fixed assets) Zider, 1998

9. Timing is everything > 80% $ invested by VCs goes into adolescent phase of a company’s life cycle During this phase the financials of eventual winners and losers look highly similar Zider, 1998

10. The “adolescence” stage

11. Zider, 1998

12. Several moving parts in execution: Assume 80% probability of success each Zider, 1998 Failure on any single step is NOT an option

13. Logic of the deal Term sheets offer downside and upside protections Downside – Preferred stock gives VCs liquidation preference – Ratchets protect VCs from dilution if more $ needs to be raised at lower valuation – they keep their same % ownership position Upside – can put additional $ into firm at predetermined prices – they can increase the stakes in successful firms below market prices

14. Typical portfolio payout per $1,000 invested Zider, 1998

16. Profile of the ideal entrepreneur Is qualified in a “hot” area of interest Delivers sales or technical advances such as FDA approval with reasonable probability Tells a compelling story and is presentable to outside investors Recognizes the need for speed to an IPO for liquidity Has a good reputation and can provide references that show competence and skill Understands the need for a team with a variety of skills and therefore sees why equity has to be allocated to other people Zider, 1998

17. Profile of the ideal entrepreneur Works diligently toward a goal but maintains flexibility Gets along with the investor group Understands the cost of capital and typical deal structures and is not offended by them Is sought after by many VCs Has realistic expectations about process and outcome Zider, 1998

18. Value of an individual to a VC Is a function of these conditions: – # of people within the high-growth industry who are qualified for the position – The position itself (CEO, CFO, CTO, technician) – Match of person’s skills, reputation, and incentives to the VC firm – Willingness to take risks – Ability to sell oneself Entrepreneurs who satisfy these conditions have strong negotiating position with VCs Zider, 1998

19. Entrepreneurs sought by multiple VCs should ask: Who will serve on board and what is that person’s position in the firm? How many other boards does the VC serve on? Has the VC ever written and funded his or her own business plan successfully? What, if any, is the VC’s direct operating or technical experience in this industry? What is the firm’s reputation with entrepreneurs who have been fired or involved in unsuccessful ventures? Zider, 1998

20. Considerations for entrepreneurs Understand what VCs want and reduce the uncertainty in their decision making Understand how VCs will structure capitalization – you want 20% of a $500M company, not 100% of a $100,000 one Innovate and sell into a new, high- growth market

21. How venture capitalists evaluate potential venture opportunities New Venture Development

22. Key questions How do you evaluate potential venture opportunities? How do you evaluate the venture’s prospective business model? What due diligence do you conduct? What is the process through which funding decisions are made? What financial analyses do you perform? What role does risk play in your evaluation? How do you think about potential exit routes?

23. Evaluating potential venture opportunities 1.Large market opportunity in fast-growing sector Explosive growth – difficult for others to catch up and for incumbents to respond $100 to $300 M revenue stream within five years Market potential needs to be > $500M to get 25% market share

24. Evaluating potential venture opportunities 2.Competitive advantage – as unfair as possible Network effect like eBay or operating system lock-in like Microsoft Usually based on difficult engineering problem that takes years to solve Patents OK, but competitors work around them

25. Evaluating potential venture opportunities 3.Team Strong technical founder for technical problem + a sales-oriented entrepreneur Founder understands thrusts of technology and industry dynamics around it Entrepreneur drives other parts of the business and sells the vision to investors Vision, execution, sales, and entrepreneurship

26. Evaluating potential venture opportunities 4.Other factors How much pain does the customer feel, and how much will he pay to solve it? Market opportunities (2 types) – Replacement for existing product: better, faster, cheaper – New-to-the-world product with less market certainty and greater risk

27. Evaluating the business model Two kinds of investments opportunities First is a company capable of executing better or offering a better version of an existing product or service – market is proven Second, completely new markets or business models where they think they understand their bets: e.g., Friendster or Webvan

28. Due diligence VCs hire professors and technical experts to meticulously study a new technology. Too hard to be done? Or are they asking the right questions? Determine customers’ real needs and their willingness to pay Industry experts about the idea, team, market, and market need Entrepreneur and team – call references and blind references Some firms require 2 general partner sponsors and a devil’s advocate to raise objective questions

29. Financial analysis? Revenue and expense models VCs look at expense model first to determine break-even point [FC/(VR-VC)] Create their own revenues models – not top- down, but bottoms-up, which becomes a fraction of the top-down estimate in the business plan

30. Role of risk Consider technical, competitive, and market risks before investing in a company Track milestones around product, first beta customers, first revenue customers

31. Potential exit routes Market cap > $200 M, + Revenues > $60 - $80 M = large enough market for an exit Plus consideration of likely acquirers IPO always most profitable exit

32. The four pillars of organic growth Summary of Joel Spolsky (CEO of Fog Creek Software) article in Inc. Magazine http://www.inc.com/magazine/20080101/how- hard-could-it-be-the-four-pillars-of-organic- growth.html

33. The four pillars Revenue Head count (i.e., employees) PR (i.e., advertising and market growth) Quality Each of these pillars must grow in tandem with the other

34. Revenue Scenario 1: Revenues grow faster than the rate at which you can hire. The result: poor customer service. Staff members will probably become overworked and demoralized. They will take days to get back to prospective customers, by which time those prospective customers will have gone to one of your competitors.

35. Employees Scenario 2: Hire employees faster than you can reasonably expect the quality of your product to improve The result: New hires don't have a chance to learn the company culture and the founder's values from experienced hands – the quality of work they do and the quality of service they provide are inferior The fastest you should hire employees is the rate at which they can learn to do their jobs

36. Advertising / market awareness Scenario 3: PR grows faster than the quality of your product If you haven't worked out the kinks, a lot of people who are interested in your business become tire kickers rather than paying customers Many of these customers will be permanently convinced that your product is simple and inadequate, even if you improve it drastically later on

37. Quality Scenario 4: You have a lot of money to promote your products and hire employees It is hard to improve product quality at the same pace, because that takes time – especially with high-tech products. It takes time for any new employee time to learn the business and how to play his or her role correctly. It takes years for a business to create sustainable and predictable market demand (e.g., repeat customers) so $ and people do not translate into a sustainable market

38. Take-aways A company that lands a big investment too early is often worse off, not better – it often finds itself in a situation where it is much harder to make that investment pay off Saying “no” to opportunities that promise your company a great leap forward is contradictory to what we’ve been taught – but if the result is that your business is easier to manage and more likely to please its customers, how can you afford not to?

39. Four pillars in action Revenues Quality Employees Advertising / market awareness

40. Business Models Using the “business model canvas”

41. The business model canvas

42. 1 Customer Segments The Customer Segments Building Block defines the different groups of people or organizations an enterprise aims to reach and serve

43. Customer Segments Customer groups represent separate segments if: Their needs require and justify a distinct offer They are reached through different distribution channels They require different types of relationships They have substantially different profitabilities They are willing to pay for different aspects of the offer

44. Examples of Customer Segments Mass market Niche market Segmented Diversified Multi-sided platforms (or multi-sided markets)

45. 2 Value Propositions The Value Propositions Building Block describes the bundle of products and services that create value for a specific Customer Segment The Value Proposition is the reason why customers turn to one company over another.

46. Examples of Value Propositions Newness Performance Customization “Getting the job done” Design Brand/status Price

47. 3 Channels The Channels Building Block describes how a company communicates with and reaches its Customer Segments to deliver a Value Proposition

48. Channels Communication, distribution, and sales Channels comprise a company's interface with customers. Channels are customer touch points that play an important role in the customer experience.

49. Channels Channels serve several functions, including: – Raising awareness among customers about a company’s products and services – Helping customers evaluate a company’s value Proposition – Allowing customers to purchase specific products and services – Delivering a Value Proposition to customers – Providing post-purchase customer support

50. Channels – Key Questions Through which Channels do our Customer want to be reached? How are we reaching them now? How are our Channels integrated? Which ones work best? Which ones are most cost-efficient? How are we integrating them with customer routines?

51. Channel phases 1.Awareness: raise awareness about products and services 2.Evaluation: help customers evaluate product 3.Purchase: how do customers purchase? 4.Delivery: deliver the value proposition to the customer 5.After sales: provide post-purchase customer support

52. 4 Customer relationships The Customer Relationships Building Block describes the types of relationships a company establishes with specific Customer Segments Driven by customer acquisition, retention, and upselling

53. Categories of customer relationships Personal assistance Dedicated personal assistance (bankers for high net worth individuals) Self-service (no direct relationship with customer) Automated service (personal online profiles give access to personalized services) Communities (especially online) Co-creation (e.g., Amazon’s customers write reviews, eBay’s seller ratings)

54. 5 Revenue Streams 1.Transactions from one-off customer payments 2.Recurring revenues from ongoing payments for continuous delivery of value proposition or post-purchase consumer support

55. Revenue Streams come from 1.Asset sales – sales of a physical product 2.Usage fee – minutes on phone, nights in hotel room 3.Subscription fees – selling continuous access to a service 4.Lending/renting/leasing – temporarily grant exclusive access to an asset 5.Licensing – give customers permission to use protected IP 6.Brokerage fees – intermediation services 7.Advertising – fees for promoting product, service, or brand

56. 6 Key resources Allow the business to create and deliver the value proposition, reach customers, maintain relationships, and generate revenues Physical, financial, intellectual, human ; owned, leased, or borrowed

57. 7 Key activities Actions a company must take to be successful Microsoft – develop software, Facebook – develop platforms, Dell – supply chain management, McKinsey – problem solving Categories: production, problem solving, platform/network

58. 8 Key partnerships Alliances to optimize business models, reduce risk, or acquire resources Four types 1.Strategic alliances between non-competitors 2.Cooperation between competitors 3.Joint ventures to develop new businesses 4.Buyer-supplier relationships to ensure reliable supplies

59. 9 Cost structure The costs associated with the other 8 pieces of the business model Approaches: cost-driven versus value-driven Characteristics: fixed, variable, economies of scale, economies of scope

60. The Business Plan

61. Why write a business plan? Always when a new venture needs outside funding Early in the planning process when you are looking at a large-scale project Later or not at all when you are bootstrapping Dollinger, 2008

62. Costs and benefits of planning Writing a plan takes considerable time, money, and energy Every plan deals with economic uncertainty and risks posed to new venture – founders may be uncomfortable confronting risks and uncertainties and avoid writing a plan Writing the plan helps founders confront risks and conflicts before they become serious problems Dollinger, 2008

63. The plan demonstrates how you 1.Create or add significant value to a customer or end user 2.Solve a significant problem or meet a significant need for which someone is willing to pay a premium 3.Have robust market, margin, and money-making characteristics 4.Have a good fit with the founders, management team at time of market entry, and the risk/reward balance Timmons, 1999

64. After you write the plan It becomes a point of departure for due diligence for potential investors and to determine risks of venture (technology, market, management, competitive, financial risks) This homework is crucial even if you don’t try to raise outside capital The most valuable investors will see weaknesses, even flaws, and will propose tactics and people to fix them Timmons, 1999

65. Tips for business planning and raising outside funds RE: Venture capitalists There are a lot of them; don’t talk to all of them Getting a “no” is as difficult as getting a “yes;” qualify your targets and force others to say no Be vague about which other VCs you are talking to Do not meet with an associate or junior member twice without a partner Timmons, 1999

66. Tips for business planning and raising outside funds RE: The plan Stress your business concept in the executive summary The numbers matter less than the economics (value proposition and business model) Make the business plan look and feel good w/o using “filler” Be prepared to provide copies of published articles, contracts, market studies, purchase orders, resumes, etc. Timmons, 1999

67. Tips for business planning and raising outside funds RE: The Deal Make sure investors want you as bad as you want them Create a market for your venture Never say no to an offer price Use a lawyer with venture deal experience Don’t stop selling until the money is in the bank Timmons, 1999

68. Tips for business planning and raising outside funds RE: The fund raising process It is much harder than you ever thought it would be You can last much longer than you ever thought you would The venture capitalists have to do this the rest of their careers Timmons, 1999

69. Critiquing the plan – General criteria Comprehensiveness – use a template to help Analysis – resource, industry, competitor and product analysis; financial projections with percentages, returns, and comparisons with analogs Reasonableness – assumptions are comparable to benchmarks and facts Writing and presentation – well written and organized Dollinger, 2008

70. Critiquing the plan – Specific criteria Management – experience, honesty, integrity Resources – rare, valuable, hard to copy, unique Projections and returns – all data must have solid foundation in reality, yet optimistic enough to attract investors Exit – how and when will investors recoup money? Dollinger, 2008

71. Level 4 Product/ svc fully developed Many users, established mkt 4/14/24/34/4 Level 3 Product / svc fully developed Few users, mkt assumed 3/13/23/33/4 Level 2 Product / svc pilot operable, not developed for production, mkt assumed 2/12/22/32/4 Level 1 Product / svc idea but not operable, mkt assumed 1/11/21/31/4 Evaluation System Level 1 Single would- be entrep Level 2 2 founders, Level 3 Partly staffed mgt team, Level 4 Fully staffed, experienced mgt team Product / svc levelProduct / svc level Management status and experience levels

72. Writing and editing the plan Steps: Prewriting, writing and rewriting/editing, editing – despite importance of good writing: Research on 20 business plans in a competition: 30% didn’t include specific strategy 40% of teams had no marketing experience 55% failed to discuss technical idea protection 75% failed to identify details of competitor 10% had no financial projections; 15% omitted balance sheets; 80% failed to provide adequate details of the financial projections Dollinger, 2008

73. Exercises 1.Draft an outline of your business plan – What information do you already have? – What information is still required? How will you get it? 2.Prepare as much of the executive summary as you can. Be concise and informative 3.Critique a business plan – How well does the plan address key issues? – What changes and improvements would you make to the plan? – How well done is the presentation and writing? – Would you invest in this business? Why or why not? Dollinger, 2008