1. Andrew Rassweiler 1, Chris Costello 1, Dave Siegel 1, Giulio De Leo 2, Fiorenza Micheli 3, Andrew Rosenberg 4 1 - University of California Santa Barbara 2 - Università degli Studi di Parma 3 - Hopkins Marine Station 4 - University of New Hampshire The Value of Information in Spatial Fisheries Management

2. Spatial fisheries management - Networks of marine reserves - Marine zoning California Marine Life Protection Act Great Barrier Reef zoning

3. Using models to aid spatial fisheries management What are models? - Models incorporate information about biology, habitat, oceanography, and fishermen. - Used to synthesize this information and make predictions - No model is exactly true So why use models? - Most alternative approaches are implicitly based on models - Models can include more information than any individual can consider

4. But! - Information goes into a model. - All the information is imperfectly known. - Reducing any uncertainty requires time and resources - In a spatial planning process: - Do we accept these uncertainties? - How much should we spend improving information? - Which information should we focus on improving?

5. Questions 1) How can we know the value of reducing uncertainty before investing in acquiring that information? 2) If information is not perfect, should we still use it? 3) How does improved information change fisheries profit and conservation outcomes? 4) How does additional information change the optimal spatial fishing strategy?

6. The value of information about dispersal in the southern California Bight Kelp bass Sheephead Kelp rockfish

7. What is the value of information about dispersal?

8. Ocean currents as drivers of dispersal

9. Scenario 1: Uncertain oceanography - Choose a single pattern of fishing that works best across the potential dispersal patterns. Scenario 2: Certain oceanography - Choose the pattern of fishing that works best for a single known dispersal pattern. Scenario 3: No oceanography - Choose the pattern of fishing that works best for a generic dispersal pattern. ?

10. Possible goals of management? -Economic value – fisheries profit -Conservation value – species biomass -A combination of the two

11. What is the value of Information when optimizing profit? Better information improves fishery profit. How does conservation change? Managing with better information increases species biomass

12. Change to fisheries profit and conservation

13. What is the value of Information?

14. How does the spatial distribution of fishing change? Management goals ProfitConservation

15. Conclusions 1) Both profit and fish biomass increase with improved information about dispersal. 2) Even imperfect information can improve spatial management. 3) With improved information management can be more spatially targeted, with more marine protected areas.

16. Acknowledgements Dispersal kernels: Satoshi Mitarai and James Watson Funding: National Science Foundation’s Biocomplexity Program, The Allen Foundation

17. Questions?