1. Used Fuel Projections and Considerations John Kessler Manager, Used Fuel and HLW Management Program, jkessler@epri.com Nuclear Infrastructure Council Sustainable Fuel Cycle Meeting 9 June 2010

2. 2 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Outline Why we got to where we are Utility issues related to wet and dry storage Commercial used fuel inventories: present and future projections Extended storage R&D

3. 3 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Back-end of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Original Plan (before ~ 1976) Nuclear Power Plant Reprocessing Plant Geologic Repository Re-fabricate/Recycle Vitrified Waste

4. 4 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Key Developments in the 70’s in the U.S. Sharp increase in reprocessing costs India’s nuclear bomb test US decision to forego reprocessing and Pu recycle Result: a “once-through” fuel cycle

5. 5 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The Once-through Fuel Cycle Wet Storage Transportation Used Fuel Offsite Storage Geologic Medium 10 CFR 72 10 CFR 71 10 CFR 60/63 10 CFR 50 Utility Licensees U.S. DOE Dry Interim Storage ?

6. 6 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Current Situation No disposal No reprocessing No fast reactors Spent fuel pools are filling up No centralized interim storage Transportation not available for all used fuel types Therefore, nowhere for fuel to go

7. 7 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Industry Reaction to the Need for Prolonged On-Site Storage Add more storage cells in the spent fuel pools (“reracking”) Move used fuel from pools into dry storage Extract more energy per assembly (higher “burnups”) Attempt to build a centralized interim storage site Work on regulatory permission to transport high burnup used fuel Extend the life of existing dry storage systems After January 31, 1998: damages lawsuits against DOE for failure to start picking up used fuel –Money coming from DOJ Judgment Fund

8. 8 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Centralized Interim Storage Example ( Private Fuel Storage Facility, Goshute Indian Reservation, State of Utah) Developed by a utility consortium, 40,000 MTU capacity 2005: NRC approval for construction, 40-year life Artist’s conception of site below: A: rail line (52 km)B: cask transfer building C: concrete padsD: concrete cask production

9. 9 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Used Fuel Wet and Dry Storage Technology is Mature (Used Fuel Pool with Dry Storage Cask: Surry - Final TN-32 Loading)

10. 10 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. On-Site Spent Fuel Dry Storage Systems

11. 11 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Dry Storage Casks at Connecticut Yankee

12. 12 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Surry ISFSI - Pad 1

13. 13 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Surry ISFSI - Pad 2

14. 14 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Surry ISFSI - Pad 3

15. 15 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Transportation Systems

16. 16 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Industry Trend from “Storage-Only” to “Dual Purpose Canisters” Dual Purpose: storage and transportation (requires two separate licenses) Multi-Purpose: storage, transportation, disposal (requires three licenses – none exist yet)

17. 17 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Historical and Projected Used Fuel “Burnup” (megawatt-days per metric ton of uranium, MWD/MTU) Burnup range from the 60s to the 80s “high” burnup No transportation licenses

18. 18 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Inventory of Used Nuclear Fuel is Measured Several Different Ways Number of assemblies –More in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) than a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Metric tons of uranium (MTU) –Similar MTUs in both BWRs and PWRs Number of dry storage casks –Move to larger capacity casks (cheaper per assembly) Dry storage: 7 (1980s) to >60 assemblies per cask today –Still transportable by rail

19. 19 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Used Commercial Fuel Inventories (as of 12/31/09) National totals: –Wet storage: 169,696 assemblies at >50 reactor sites –Dry storage: 1,232 casks, 51,585 assemblies in 32 states Top six states (casks/assemblies in dry storage) –Illinois –Pennsylvania –South Carolina –Virginia –Georgia –California Data courtesy of ACI Nuclear Energy Solutions

20. 20 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. By 2055: >485,000 assemblies (per ACI Nuclear Energy Solutions)

21. 21 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. ISFSI: Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation

22. 22 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Potential Additional Used Fuel in a “Renaissance” Current Yucca Mountain legal limit (63,000 MTU)

23. 23 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Yucca Mountain Technical Capacity is Much Higher Than the Legal Limit EPRI’s projected technical capacity range (~260,000-570,000 MTU, 4 to 9 times current legal limit) Current legal limit (63,000 MTU)

24. 24 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Newest Storage Project: Extended Storage “Extended”: >>60 years Initial dry storage license periods: 20 years –Was supposed to be long enough Existing EPRI work leads to licenses extended to 60 years But: –Cancellation of Yucca Mountain? New disposal program could take decades –New plants’ contracts with DOE: start taking spent fuel 20 years after plant shutdown means 80 to 100+ years Extended storage is not just a US problem

25. 25 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Functions of a Dry Cask Storage System that Must be Maintained NUREG-1536 (NRC, 1997) identifies the functions important to safety that the dry cask systems must maintain: –thermal performance –radiological protection –confinement –sub-criticality –retrievability Can the existing and future dry cask systems maintain these functions for decades to come?

26. 26 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Temperature-related Dry Storage System Degradation Mechanisms Fuel cladding creep caused by increased cladding ductility and increased stress –Due to higher temperatures causing higher pressures inside the cladding Hydride reorientation in the spent fuel cladding Corrosion Degradation of neutron shielding Concrete dry-out and cracking

27. 27 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Changes as the System gets Older and Cooler Mostly good things –Reduced metal creep rates –Reduced corrosion rates –Reduced gamma and neutron radiation Potential negatives (mostly related to cladding) –Additional hydride precipitation –Decreased cladding ductility Potentially more susceptible to breakage during storage and transportation

28. 28 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Aging Management Options “Initial” activities –Additional analyses of degradation mechanisms for longer periods –Enhanced monitoring and inspection “Eventually” (more costly, higher worker dose) –Canning –Repackaging –Over-packaging When is “eventually”?

29. 29 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EPRI Initiated a Joint Effort in a November 2009 Workshop Attendees: –EPRI –NRC: SFST, RES, NRR –DOE: NE, EM, RW –Utilities –Storage system vendors –NEI –NWTRB Title: Extended Storage Collaboration Program –EPRI will be lead organization –US and international participation

30. 30 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Purpose of the Program Evaluate what we already know –Existing analyses: how far out in time? –Existing data –Existing operational issues (e.g., loading, monitoring, testing) Identify the open items for even longer storage (gap analysis) Suggestions for what needs to be done (and how, if possible) Form a standing group to continue pursuing additional, appropriate R&D

31. 31 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Conclusion: Industry Will do What is Necessary to Keep Plants Running Continue cranking out dry storage systems as a stop-gap measure –Industry has not (yet) been successful completing a centralized storage facility –Will get harder and harder to continue adding to the on-site storage inventory Space, dose, public concern limitations Shutdown plants: all that is left is the fuel Ensure wet and dry storage systems maintain their safety functions Without an active disposal program, it becomes more difficult to address the “what about the waste?” concern

32. 32 © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity