2. The North Korean Nuclear/Missile Crisis Dr. Clay Moltz Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies June 2005

3. 2 Current Crisis October 2002—U.S. accuses DPRK of cheating U.S. cuts off fuel oil DPRK withdraws from NPT and kicks out IAEA inspectors DPRK restarts plutonium producing reactor Multiple rounds of talks fail to yield progress How did we get here?

4. 3 Overview DPRK nuclear crisis and its roots –Division of Korea (1945) –Cold War developments –Anachronistic, totalitarian state seeking to survive Complex alliance and security questions for U.S. Vexing questions for future nuclear controls

5. 4 DPRK Leadership Japanese occupation (1911) Rise of Kim Il Sung as guerilla leader; selected as head of DPRK (1948) Allies with USSR and China Struggle for power vs. authoritarian South during Cold War Succession to his son, Kim Jong Il (1994) Kim Il Sung Kim Jong Il

6. 5 History of the North Korean Nuclear Program Soviet assistance in civilian nuclear field Post-Korean War agreement on nuclear training (1956) Soviet provision of a 2 MWt research reactor Yongbyon reactor installed in 1965 Possible planning for weapons capability

7. 6 Strategic Environment South Korean nuclear power program aided by Western countries U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea South Korea begins nuclear weapons program in 1970s (French reprocessing deal) U.S. halts ROK weapons program (but begins “Team Spirit” exercises)

8. 7 DPRK Decision-Making: 1970s Fear of ROK cheating Increasing political isolation from China and Soviet Union Beginning to lose economic race with South Drive to develop independent nuclear capability (for power, weapons, or both)

9. 8 Nuclear Expansion in 1980s Weapons research, uranium mining/milling, and fuel fabrication facilities opened 20 MWt (5 MWe) research reactor in Yongbyon Construction of two power plants begun (gas-graphite reactors) Power reactor deal with Soviets; DPRK forced to join NPT (1985) Outside of Yongbyon-1 reactor Yongbyon 20 MWt (5 MWe) reactor

10. 9 Fuel rod fabrication plant in Yongbyon

11. 10 Uncompleted Yongbyon-2, 50 MWt power reactor

12. 11 Unfinished 200 MWt power reactor in Tae’chon

13. 12 DPRK Missile Program Attempts to produce Chinese missiles Scuds from Egypt reverse-engineered Development of independent production capability Cooperation with states in Middle East; exports to Iran (War of the Cities) Development of Nodong missile

14. 13 International Nuclear Issues: Early 1990s U.S. withdraws tactical nuclear weapons from ROK Bilateral denuclearization agreement with South (1991) IAEA safeguards agreement (1991) and DPRK facilities declaration (1992) IAEA inspections reveal discrepancies

15. 14 Agreed Framework and KEDO IAEA calls for special inspection (February 1993) DPRK initiates withdrawal from NPT (March 1993) Jimmy Carter visits Pyongyang (July 1994) Agreed Framework (October 1994) Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) (1995)

16. 15 Map of DPRK Nuclear Sites

17. 16 Missile Concerns Beyond the Nodong Rumsfeld Commission Report (July 1998) Taepodong I test over Japan (August 1998) DPRK export goals

18. 17

19. 18

20. 19 Other North Korean WMD Programs Biological Weapons –Evidence of past foreign assistance (GDR) –Some capabilities, but weaponization not clear Chemical Weapons –More solid evidence –Stockpile estimated at 2,500-5,000 tons –Artillery warheads and threat to U.S./ROK forces

21. 20 DPRK Chemical Weapons Facilities

22. 21 Progress and Problems (pre-2002) Delays in Agreed Framework Missile test/moratorium for food aid Normalization of relations (Italy, Australia, UK) Economic engagement (South Korea) But apparent DPRK nuclear cheating

23. 22 U.S.-DPRK Relations Today Pres. Bush’s distrust of Agreed Framework and Kim Jong Il DPRK’s nuclear threats Recent ROK nuclear admissions Demise of Agreed Framework (good or bad?) –No more fears of nuclear transfer (or rewards) –But no inspection mechanism

24. 23 Simulator Building at Kumho site

25. 24 Ship Terminal at Kumho Site

26. 25 Status of Light-Water Reactors at Kumho Site

27. 26 International Efforts Bilateral Talks (2002)—DPRK, U.S. Three-Party Talks (2003)—DPRK, U.S., China Six-Party Talks (2003-2005)— DPRK, U.S., China, ROK, Japan, and Russia Specific options?

28. 27 How Far is the DPRK from a Bomb? Pu on hand (2003): 12-20 kg. Pu in spent fuel rods that could be reprocessed: 25 kg. Pu production of 5 kg./year at Yongbyon Future uranium enrichment and other Pu reactors?

29. 28 How Far is the DPRK from an ICBM? Limitations (payloads, CEPs, numbers) Multiple stages and range extension Taepodong II and CONUS: terror weapon Japan? Is a deal possible?

30. 29 Current U.S.-DPRK Policy Dilemmas U.S. Dilemmas –DPRK aim: WMD or regime survival? –How to verify compliance with a deal? DPRK Dilemmas –U.S. aim: regime change or denuclearization? –How to ensure economic aid, if nuclear dismantlement comes first?

31. 30 Conclusion DPRK nuclear/missile threat increasing over time Three basic options: dismantlement, management, or defense Narrow vs. broad approaches to regional security U.S./DPRK hold keys to change (but other four can help)