1. 4 May 20041 Can we say goodbye to the MSY theory and a pessimistic view of the state of the world fisheries? FAO suggested that the total world landings do not increase any more. The Maximum Sustainable Yield theory always guarantees the stock persistence; The adaptive management is one of the best ways against uncertain ecosystems. Anonymous straw man says

2. 4 May 20042 Can we say goodbye to the MSY theory and a pessimistic view of the state of the world fisheries? FAO suggested that the total world landings do not increase any more. The Maximum Sustainable Yield theory always guarantees the stock persistence; The adaptive management is one of the best ways against uncertain ecosystems. I say the adaptive management sometimes results in undesired outcomes; I say the MSY theory does not guarantee coexistence of species = food web constraint; 4WFC organizer gave us the title of “getting more fish and reconciling fisheries with conservation”;

3. 4 May 20043 Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

4. 4 May 20044 Can the world catch not really increase? http://www.fao.org/fi/publ/circular/c920/intro.asp#A2 Species base statistics

5. 4 May 20045 Landings of demersal marine fish has not grown since 1970s （ FAO1996) http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/FISHERY/publ/sofia/fig5e.asp

6. 4 May 20046 Landings of small pelagic fish is still increasing with fluctuation http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/FISHERY/publ/sofia/fig4e.asp anchoveta sardine chub mackerel Atlantic herring

7. 4 May 20047 Fig. 1. Global trends of mean trophic level of fisheries landings, 1950 to 1994 Pauly et al. (Science1998:279:860;) Fishing Down– Is this bad? Marine areas inland areas Peruvian anchovy increased mean trophic level Catch of lower trophic levels is a smaller impact. Decrease of mean trophic level in environment is bad.

8. 4 May 20048 21 I often eat lower trophic level fish, but should eat more. 650 yen (US$6) with coffee

9. 4 May 20049 Whales consume fish more than human (Tamura & Ohsumi 1997)

10. 4 May 200410 “Initial” and recent biomass of whales Source: SeaWorld web site except minke whales (F. Kasamatsu, book in Japanese)

11. 4 May 200411 http://www.icrwhale.org/02-E.htm Nothern Pacific minke whales eat anchovy.

12. 4 May 200412 Two phenotypes of whales-fisheries competition idea By Japan Gov. Whales destroy the ocean. “...in a complicated food web structure, indirect effects of culling top predator (whales) on abundance of target fish is either positive or negative,...” By Yodzis 2001 Trend Ecol Evol Fisheries destroy the ocean.

13. 4 May 200413 Who is more familiar with environment? Rich or poor nations? Analysis of Ecological footprint （ source WWF 2002) http://www.wwf.or.jp/activity/lpr2002/ EFP World2.28 High Income6.48 Intermediate1.99 Low income0.83 EFP Afganistan0.95 Iraq1.38 Israel4.44 Germany4.71 Japan4.77 Canada8.84 USA9.70 EFP: global ha/person

14. 4 May 200414 My comments on whale-fisheries competition Top predators eat fish more than human –We can get more fish if top predators decrease Top predators have decreased. Whales eat anchovy, do not directly compete with human or fisheries. We must consider reconciling with conservation

15. 4 May 200415 Pelagic fish stock is unstable -- species replacement -- Catch in Japan (1000 mt) Anchovy Horse mackerels Pacific saury Chub mackerel Sardine Matsuda & Katsukawa 2002 Fish Oceangr

16. 4 May 200416 Cyclic Advantage Hypothesis Matsuda et al. (1992) Res. Pop. Ecol. 34:309-319 The next dominant to sardine is anchovy – -- Yes! As I predicted in 1992. The second next is chub mackerel -- Many people agree now Anchovy, Pacific saury, jack mackerel mackrel sardine

17. 4 May 200417 Why did sardine stock collapse in 1990s? Natural fluctuation (Watanabe et al. 1995 CJFAS ) –Failure of recruitments (getting older) –Fallacy of critical period theory –We can get more sardine in 1980s, more anchovy and Pacific saury now. At low stock level, fishing pressure may prevent from recovering...

18. 4 May 200418 Q&A Q: Will western Pacific chub mackerel really recover? A: It depends on the fishing pressure

19. 4 May 200419 Large fluctuation of recruitment in Northeastern Pacific chub mackerel Strong year classes appeared twice Kawai et al. 2002 Fish Sci

20. 4 May 200420 Strong year classes were caught before the age at maturity 1970s1980s1990s1993- %immatures 65.0%60.0%87.0%90.6% Kawai et al. 2002 Fish Sci

21. 4 May 200421 Fishers missed chance of recovery Kawai,…,Matsuda, Fish. Sci. 2002 F during 1970-80s actual stock abundance (million tons)

22. 4 May 200422 Probability of stock recovery Kawai,…,Matsuda 2002 Fish Sci The decade of 1990s was “Japan’s lost 10 years” Probability of stock recovery

23. 4 May 200423 Future of Pelagic Fish Populations in the north-western Pacific: If overfishing of immatures continues, –Chub mackerel will not recover forever; If cyclic replacement hypothesis is true, –Sardine will not recover forever; Do not catch immatures too much –The overfishing is an experiment for my hypothesis. (Adaptive mismanagement)

24. 4 May 200424 Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

25. 4 May 200425 Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield Theory Ecosystems are uncertain, non- equilibrium and complex. MSY theory ignores all the three. Does MSY theory guarantee species persistence? - No!! Stock abundance surplus production

26. 4 May 200426 Kyoto Declaration and Plan of Action on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security in 1992 (FAO) Article 14 “When and where appropriate, consider harvesting multiple trophic levels in a manner consistent with sustainable development of these resources”. http://www.fao.org/fi/agreem/kyoto/kyoe.asp

27. 4 May 200427 2 54 3 5 3 6 4 4 Examples of biological community at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams in review) 12 3 5 6 (b) 12 3 5 6 4 (a) 12 5 (c) 3 6 4 Solution maximizing total yield from community MSY solution often reduces species and links; 12 6 4 (d) 1 3 6 (e) 2 54 3 5 4

28. 4 May 200428 2 45 3 5 Examples of biological community at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams in review) 12 3 5 6 (b) 12 3 5 6 4 (a) 12 5 (c) 100%92%61%12%6% 4 3 6 4 exploit more species, more trophic levels. 12 6 4 (d) 1 3 6 (e) Constrained MSY that guarantee coexistence 2 45 4 3 6 4 3 5

29. 4 May 200429 Conclusion of story 2 MSY theory does not guarantee species coexistence Fisheries must take care of biodiversity conservation explicitly = Foodweb constraint to reconciling fisheries with conservation

30. 4 May 200430 Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

31. 4 May 200431 Feedback control in fishing effort is powerful... A straw man says; Even though the MSY level is unknown, the feedback control stabilizes a broad range of target stock level. Stock size N f(N) N*N*N*N*N*N*

32. 4 May 200432 Feedback control with community interactions also result in undesired outcomes. (M & A in preparation) r = (0.454,1.059,1.186,0.247,-0.006,-0.028,-0.059,-0.704,-0.308,-0.238) A = (a ji ) = e 9 = 0.1, e i = 0 1 3 4 2 56 7 8 9 10

33. 4 May 200433 Feedback control may result in extinction of other species (sp. 6). de 9 /dt = u(N 9 -N 9 *) ratio

34. 4 May 200434 Conclusion of story 3 Single stock monitoring is dangerous Target stock level is much more sensitive than we have considered in single stock models. We must monitor not only stock level of target species, but also the “entire” ecosystem.

35. 4 May 200435 Today’s my talk We can get more fish sustainably; MSY theory does not guarantee biodiversity; Adaptive management is dangerous; Recommendations

36. 4 May 200436 Recommendations #1 1.Do fishing down in food items!! Eat small pelagic fishes 2.We can eat more fish, not use as fish meal!! 3.Reduce discards before and after landings (our dishes); 4.Establish food market of temporally fluctuating fishes at lower trophic levels 5.Improve technology for effective use of lower trophic levels (Japan Soc. of Fisheries) Seafoods)

37. 4 May 200437 Recommendations #2 1. Switch a target fish for sp. replacement (Matsuda & Katsukawa 2002 Fish. Oceanogr) 2. Monitor the ecosystems 3. Conserve immatures; 4. Improve technology for selective fishing 5. Conserve both fishes and fisheries; 6. Say goodbye to MSY reference points;

38. 4 May 200438 I express sincere thanks to The organizers for comfortable hospitality, especially Yvonne Sadovy; The audience who chose this session; I apologize that –I must confess that I said as the straw man said; –my English is very awk; –I looked for positive answer for the session title