1. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)lZurich-Airport Risk Analysis of Swamp Area at Zürich Airport Daniel Bircher Safety Officer

2. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20072 1. Background ICAO SARPs According to ICAO Annex 14, 9.2.2 where an aerodrome is located close to water/swamp areas, or difficult terrain, and where a significant portion of approach or departure operations takes place over these areas, specialist rescue services and fire fighting equipment appropriate to the hazard and risk shall be available Situation ZRH 1.Zürich airport does not fulfill the ICAO requirements 2.A safety assessment/aeronautical study has been conducted (by Ernst Basler + Partner AG) focussing on the following questions: What is the risk of an aircraft crash or a veer-off into the swampy area between RWY 14/32 and 16/34 at Zürich airport? Identification of potential mitigation measures (equipment, infrastructure, procedures) Analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed measures Cost-effectiveness of measures

3. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20073 Standards and Recommended Practises u.a. Cost-benefit considerations Existing was Approved Classification Safety ** assessment Safety Case ** Compliance Checklist Remove Hazard ALARP* ? Minor Non-Conformities identified Document background (historical basis) Major Significant Mitigate ALARP* ? No Yes No Co-ordinated by FOCA Responsibility Airport Update ** Co-operation with ANSP, if necessary* ALARP: As low as reasonably practical

4. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20074 The Area I Natural reserve !!

5. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20075 The Area II

6. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20076 Difficult Access

7. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20077 Risk-based Approaches Evaluate Measures Scenarios ProbabilityImpact / Damage Determine Risk Risk AppraisalCriteria Hazard identification Risk anaylsis Risk Appraisal Risk Mitigation System Definition

8. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20078 Accident Analysis I: Probability Assumptions 1980-2005 A/C >15 pax 330 accidents (RWY excursions, CFIT, loss of control, with/ without fires) Within 1250m from Threshold Within 750m from each RWY edge Accident rates 1.7 x 10-7 per take-off movement 6.4 x 10-7 per landing movement

9. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 20079 Accident Analysis II: Impact ClassFatalitiesDamage/Impact in CHF I0O II330 Million III10100 Million IV30300 Million V1001‘000 Million VI3003‘000 Million Willingness-to pay: 10 Mio. CHF per life saved

10. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200710 Collective Risk R= movements (per year) x accident rate x probability of being in swamp x impact x value per life saved „Risk equals the expected damage per year for a defined scenario“

11. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200711 Risk assessment Probability* 0.0023 Events / year (re-occurrence period of 440 years). The probability of an accident at ZRH within the swampy area is expected to be 1.7 * 10-8 per movement (approach or take-off). Risk 0.012 casualties / year and a monetarized risk of CHF 121'000.-- / year. * All events within the swampy area at ZRH (3.8% of all excursions, veer offs) including a fire and at least a partial hull loss

12. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200712 Thorough evaluation of 32 measures Evaluation of effects of measure on: improved accessability for crash fire tenders improved accessability for other F&R means evacuation of passengers/crew transportation of passengers/crew out of crash site

13. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200713 Risk mitigation measures Selected Measures 1.Ungraveld road into parts of the swampy area 2.Footpath into the swampy area 3.Special vehicule to transport water/exinguishing agents 4.Special vehicule to transport water hoses 5.Transportable foldable mat to enable access for crash tenders 6.Rafts for adjacent pond

14. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200714 Results I  Effectivenes of measures between -0.1% and -20% reduction of probability (outbrake of fire) and impact (confining fire, fast rescue of pax)  risk reduction between CHF 5‘000.- and CHF 13.- per year  cost of measures between CHF 470‘000.- and CHF 3‘700.- per year

15. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200715 Results II Meaning: - Annual cost of this safety measure is 286 CHF - The annual risk reduction is 1 CHF

16. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200716 Results III None of the identified measures has a reasonable cost-benefit ratio  measures ineffective According to the ALARP* principle, the risks are acceptable Swiss Civil Aviation Authority (FOCA) has accepted the study as a basis for showing compliance with the corresponding ICAO SARP FOCA has requested Unique (Zurich airport) to take the following actions – gather refined data on ground resistance and accessability of area – examine/evaluate accessability of area – perform F&R exercises in the area *As Low As Reasonably Practicable

17. © Unique (Flughafen Zürich AG)llACI OSSC Meeting 11.-13. September 200717 Thank you for you attention !