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DTZ Central & Eastern Europe www.dtz.com Getting a Return from Mixed Use Development A presentation by Gerry Brough, DTZ 24 th January 2006
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2 A subsidiary of DTZ Group Holdings * DTZ Consulting & Research Corporate Real Estate Research & Investment Finance Strategy Locations Business Transition Procurement Property & Economic Forecasts Real Estate Capital Markets Investor Consulting Development & Regeneration Housing Strategic Economics Economic Impact Assessments Economic Strategy Labour Skills Education & Technology Retail Strategies Exit Strategies Development Consulting Regeneration Strategies Housing Led Regeneration Affordable Housing Policy & Research Valuation Development & Economic Consulting Economists Innovation & Technology Advisers Education & Skills Specialists Planners Analysts Surveyors Professional Marketers Researchers >250 Multi-Disciplinary Consultants * The world’s third largest property adviser with a network of over 9,000 staff operating from 192 offices in 40 countries
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3 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors 1.Use advisers that: Have experience of working with/for all potential stakeholders (property occupiers, buyers, property investors, public authorities and local communities) Are knowledgeable about all aspects of the development cycle (Research >> Project Definition >> Development >> Delivery >> Impact Assessment) Are committed to the development of their business in the Czech Republic, over the long- term
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4 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors 2.Meet the developers/investors needs: A well located site (near suppliers, customers, road links, labour supply)…. No ownership or planning issues…. To make as much profit as possible (low land price, high investment incentives, low build costs, no delays, high yields)…. A plentiful supply of adaptable, skilled labour…. No environmental liabilities….
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5 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors 3.Use an appropriate mix of advisers and cost/ benefit modelling to test various development options: Stage 3 Development Options Property market appraisal Value benefits of the site location Economic “health check” Ability of site to accept alternative land uses Layout/massing/access etc Major Physical site constraints Highlight key “cost” risks Current state of commercial property market Local economic conditions Identify alternative high- value opportunities Road and public transport connections Mixed-use development potential Environmental issues Major costs associated with de-contamination, Ground conditions, utilities infrastructure, etc Stage 1 Baseline Assessment for each site Stage 2 Initial Conclusions Stage 4 Testing Options Establish and Compare Redevelopment Options for each site Construct and Use Cost Benefit and Financial Models to Test Options Urban Designers/ Master planners Engineers/ Cost Consultants
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6 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors 4.Determine the best development mix to meet all stakeholder aspirations: Balance Needs of all Stakeholders Supporting Existing Businesses and Protecting local jobs Maximising community benefits; public open space etc. Maximising Future Local Economic benefits (e.g. New Job Creation) Maximising Profit Economic Impact Appraisal Development Appraisal
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7 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors Risk associated with ‘doing nothing’ – environmental and socio- economic Risks associated with regeneration projects Environmental obligations – need for possible future guarantees Planning approvals/permits - pressure groups, other ‘interests’ Environmental remediation - to what level? Financial risk – costs may exceed budget Market risks – are public sector anchor tenants or rental guarantees available? Risks associated with securing/maintaining public sector support Economic justification required (economic impact assessment) 5.Identify and “manage” risks:
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8 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors Initial Market Assessment should; Be based on knowledge of local and international property market is essential Assess different options (different schemes based on pessimistic, average and optimistic scenarios) Determine likely investment market interest at some future stage Reputable international property advisers should be involved from an early stage Develop a realistic marketing strategy 6.Determine the marketability of the final scheme before starting:
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9 Getting a return from mixed use development – 7 Key Factors Stakeholders = Site owners, main funding sources, planning authorities, local community groups etc. Experts = Economic, Planning, Architectural, Environmental, Engineering, Cost, Building, Financial, Marketing Dedicated management team (involving key stakeholders and key experts) should be established a.s.a.p. Regular meetings with key stakeholders at each stage in the process Regular public meetings to seek comments and secure public backing An effective communications strategy (part of marketing strategy) 7.Ensure effective coordination of stakeholder and expert inputs:
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10 Summary Expertise in all aspects of economic and property development Regeneration, Innovation, FDI, Performance Appraisal, Economic Impact Assessment, Master Planning, Development Appraisals, Market Appraisals Expertise in each stage of the project management process Research, Definition, Development, Delivery and Impact Assessment Extensive Property Market Expertise Expertise in advising Developers Property owners and occupiers Investors An international brand associated with providing high quality expertise to demanding clients = QUALITY Culture People Products Clients What DTZ can offer;
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11 Summary Overall assessment of brownfield sites within the region Work with Regional Councils to review zoning plans and identify the best potential development areas within the overall site, or wider region Produce pre-feasibility studies for key sites Development proposals for key sites Acquisition strategies Commercial development plans and funding proposals Brownfield regeneration strategies, where appropriate Developer/Investor search Identify potential developers and investors Prepare development briefs for key sites What DTZ can do for Czech Regional Authorities;
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12 Summary Czech National Brownfield Strategy Project Project managed by Gerry Brough, Director, DTZ Consulting & Research - on behalf of CzechInvest, the Ministry of Trade & Industry and the EU Involved the preparation of 5 regeneration projects, as examples of best practice Ex-Thrall Wagonka factory, Studenka, Ex construction materials site, Poruba District, Ostrava Frantisek ex-deep coal mine, Horni Sucha, nr. Ostrava Ex- military site, Podborany, near Most Ex-gas works, Usti-nad-Labem Previous Czech Experience;
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13 Summary Demolition/Refurbishment Plan Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka;
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14 Summary Development Plan Phasing Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka; Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 0 – site preparation
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15 Summary Development Plan Phase 1 Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka;
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16 Summary Estimated Development Costs Site Acquisition and site servicing Demolition Refurbishment costs for Phase 1 Internal service connections for phase 1 Car parking and landscaping for phase 1 Preparation of serviced plot for new SME units in Phase 1 Preparation of serviced development plots in phases 2 and 3 Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka;
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17 Summary Development Appraisal Gross and net cash outflows/inflows estimated over a 15 year period (shown in graph and cash flow format) for each element of the development plan Sources of cash outflows/inflows identified Then, on a discounted cash basis, estimates are made for; Net Total Development Costs [cumulative cash outflows (costs) + cumulative inflows (income)] (A) Final Development Values (B) Indicative Residual Value = (B-A) Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka;
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18 Summary Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka; Economic Impact Appraisal Contextual Analysis Analysis of ‘Do-Nothing’ Option Analysis of Preferred Option(s) Risk Appraisal Conclusions. € Gross Jobs created2,397 Net Jobs created1,614 Whole Project Costs83,683,063 Whole Project Revenues21,193,988 Net Project Value/(Costs)-62,489,074 Net Present Value/(Costs)-46,795,713 Gross Public Sector Costs40,506,406 Net Public Sector Costs1,365,911 Public Sector receipts-39,140,495 Net Present Public Sector Costs-26,565,643 Gross Project Cost per additional job created51,842 Gross Public Sector Costs per additional job created25,094 Gross Value Added per annum19,818,300 Claw back per annum2,099,589
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19 Summary Ex-Thrall Wagonka Factory - Studenka; Site Marketing Marketing Strategy Marketing Tools (Site Brochures, 3-D models etc) International exposure through DTZ’s Global network
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20 Summary Undertake environmental risk assessment and determine main development constraints (in partnership with a suitable environmental engineering company) Determine the optimum development scheme, based on a comprehensive property market assessment Oversee the preparation of the concept plan (in partnership with a suitable architectural company) Undertake a financial appraisal of the development scheme options Assess the economic impact (value) of any development Help secure potential sources of finance and/or equity/development partners Identify potential future occupiers Advise on all aspects of design and specification that will affect value Prepare and manage leasing strategy and marketing campaign for pre-letting opportunities. Co-ordinate preparation of an effective marketing campaign including the creation of a scheme ‘brand’. Prepare a management strategy for the completed development. What DTZ can do for the Zbrojovka site;
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21 DTZ Consulting & Research Gerry Brough gerry.brough@dtz.com www.dtz.com and/or www.dtzpieda.co.uk
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