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Global Supply Chain Trends and the Impact on North American Distribution Markets
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2 Our Global Platform ProLogis associates around the globe serve more than 4,000 customers in 18 countries Asia 10.5 msf 2 countries 6 markets North America 347.7 msf 3 countries 51 markets Europe 128.1 msf 13 countries 53 markets 2
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World Trade Overview
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4 Driving Demand – Global Trade Growth World Trade World GDP Sources: Haver Analytics, ProLogis Growth in World Trade and World GDP, 1988-2007
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5 U.S. Imports From China China Admitted to WTO Source: U.S. Census Bureau $US in billions
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6 Driving Demand – Seaports vs. Airports Sources: UN Review of Maritime Transport 2006, ACI Traffic Data for 2006, ProLogis analysis *Estimate based on reported cargo volume for Top 30 global airports Seaports handle more than 97% of world cargo by volume Total Cargo Volume - 2006 2.9 billion metric tons.072 billion metric tons* Seaports Airports
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Port Growth
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8 TEU Growth at Top 15 Container Ports Number of TEUs 1996 10,000,000+ 5,000,000+ 2,000,000+ Total TEU 68,300,000
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9 Total TEU 211,000,000 Number of TEUs 2007 10,000,000+ 5,000,000+ 15,000,000+ 20,000,000+ TEU Growth at Top 15 Container Ports
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10 Top 15 Container Ports Worldwide - 1996 Port Name Country 1996 RankingTEU (MM) Hong KongChina113.5 Singapore 212.9 Los Angeles/Long BeachUS35.7 KaohsiungTaiwan45.1 RotterdamThe Netherlands54.9 BusanKorea64.7 HamburgGermany7 3.1 AntwerpBelgium82.7 YokohamaJapan92.3 KeelungTaiwan102.3 TokyoJapan112.3 NY/NJUS12 2.3 DubaiUAE13 2.2 KobeJapan14 2.2 FelixstoweUK152.0 Totals68.3
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11 Top 15 Container Ports Worldwide - 2007 Port Name Country 20072006Average % Change RankingTEU (MM)RankingTEU (MM) Singapore 127.9124.812.5% ShanghaiChina226.1321.720.2% Hong KongChina323.8223.22.5% ShenzenChina421.0418.513.5% Los Angeles/Long BeachUS515.6515.8-.6% BusanKorea612.1612.0.08% RotterdamThe Netherlands710.789.710.3% DubaiUAE810.69 8.919.1% KaohsiungTaiwan910.27 9.84.0% HamburgGermany109.9108.911.2% QingdaoChina119.411 7.722.0% NingboChina129.312 7.130.9% GuangzhouChina139.2146.639.3% AntwerpBelgium148.1137.015.7% TianjinChina157.116 5.920.3% Totals211.0187.614.7%
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Container Movement from E. Asia
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13 Transit Times 25 SavannahCharleston Atlanta 8 8 28 25 Norfolk 26 19 Lazaro Cardenas Shanghai 13 Vancouver Oakland 12 Prince Rupert Houston 6 6 Dallas 5 5 8 8 New York 7 7 Toronto 5 5 Chicago 5 5 5 5 6 6 13 LA/ Long Beach Long Beach 13 Tacoma/Seattle
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14 North America Port Activity Containers Handled 2006 TEUs (000’s) 2007 TEUs (000’s) 06-07 Growth Los Angeles / Long Beach15,75915,667-.6% New York/NJ5,1285,2993.3% Seattle / Tacoma4,0543,898-3.8% Oakland2,3902,388-.1% Vancouver2,2072,3074.5% Savannah2,1602,60420.6% Norfolk2,0462,1284.0% Charleston1,8841,750-7.1% Houston1,6061,76910.1% Lazaro Cardenas127270112.6% Source: Containerization International, port websites
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15 North America Container Market Share Source: Containerization International *Some 2007 data estimated
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16 Share N.E. Asia – U.S. East Coast Route Source: Panama Canal Authority
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Panama Canal Update
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18 Panama Canal - Update Photo: Sealand Meteor at the Panama Canal (3,800 TEUs) 48-mile canal built in early 1900s 14,000 ships/year Maximum capacity-container ships ~ 5,000 TEUs Largest container ships being built today carry 10,000+ TEUs US$5 billion expansion approved by Panamanian voters in 2006 Adds new, wider locks Expected to double capacity when completed in 2014 Secondary ports on Gulf Coast and East Coast anticipate surge in traffic following project completion
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19 Panama Canal Current Canal lock dimensions: 1000’ x 110’ x 41’ Future Canal lock dimensions: 1400’ x 180’ x 60’
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World Trade Impact on NA Distribution Markets
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21 Logistics Cost Breakdown Source: Herbert W. Davis and Company, 2006 database 4.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.9% 8.8% 21 *Rent/building cost is 25% of this number.
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22 Regional Distribution: Percentage of U.S. Population Within 500 Miles
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23 Population Based Network Model The 10 Best Warehouse Networks Networks with the Lowest Possible “Time-to-Market” Source: Chicago Consulting
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24 Major retailers - Import DCs
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25 Metrics Driving Industrial Real Estate Demand Key metrics in evaluating top markets for future distribution centers: Proximity to large local population base Physical port capacity for growth in TEUs handled Good road infrastructure from the port Inland ports – intermodal rail connections For export markets, proximity to diverse manufacturing centers Availability and cost of labor, degree of union activity, and risk of labor strikes Frequency and availability of dedicated liner service
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26 Future trends as we see it Warehousing moving closer to inland ports/Intermodal Terminals Drayage costs Railroad Service Increasing flexibility in supply chains Diversified Port Strategies- Increase activity for East Coast ports Continually changing sources of supply Distribution Network Adjustments New network rationalization Deconsolidation centers as additions to network
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27 Gregory J. Arnold One Capital Drive, Suite 103 Cranbury, NJ 08512 Phone: 609.409.2120 Email: garnold@prologis.com
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