1. The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What? Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist Center for Economic & Community Development Coastal Carolina University April 15, 2010

2. The Big Picture: Key Trends That Will Shape the Next 5-10 Years Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

3. US Savings and Debt Trends: Implications for Spending Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University Real Income Growth: 3.9% Real Spending Growth: 3.8% Real Income Growth: 3.1% Real Spending Growth: 3.4% ????

4. U.S. Homeownership Rate 1965 - 2009 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

5. Debt Outstanding 1966 - 2009 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

6. South Carolina Labor Market Trends Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

7. SC Total Employment Jan. 2007 – Jan. 2010 Feb 2008: 1,950,700 jobs Jan 2010: 1,813,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University -138,000 jobs -7.1%

8. SC Total Employment Jan. 1990 – Jan. 2010 June 2000: 1,876,600 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University Jan 2010: 1,813,000 jobs Jan 2002: 1,795,400 jobs Feb 2008: 1,950,700 jobs

9. SC Employment Trends Since 1960 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

10. SC Employment Trends Since 1960 +39,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

11. SC Employment Trends Since 1960 +60,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

12. SC Employment Trends Since 1960 -316,000 jobs Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

13. Understanding the “Lost” Decade: Trends in Manufacturing Employment Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

14. S.C. Manufacturing Employment 1970Q1 – 2001Q4 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

15. S.C. Manufacturing Employment 1970Q1 – 2009Q4 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University What happens as we lose 130,000 manufacturing jobs?

16. Manufacturing and Total Employment in South Carolina 1970Q1 – 2009Q4 Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

17. Tracking The Recovery Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

18. Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

19. Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery Dr. Don Schunk Coastal Carolina University

20. Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2010-2011 Presented by: Santee-Lynches Regional COG & The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development at Coastal Carolina University

21. Gross Retail Sales ($ billions)

22. Total Employment (thousands)

23. Labor Force (thousands)

24. Unemployment Rate (percent)

25. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2000-’09 data

26. -9,240 manufacturing job losses from 2000-3rdQ ‘09 for region. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

27. -795 non-manufacturing job losses from 2000-3rdQ ’09 for region. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

28. -10,035 total job losses from 2000-3rdQ ‘09 for region.

29. “If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy is education, education, education.” Dr. JOHN S. BUTLER Professor, University of Texas

30. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

32. Single-Family Building Permits (# of permits)

33. Single-Family Permits Value ($millions)

34. Manufactured/Mobile Home Permits (# of permits)

35. Nonresidential Building Permits (# of permits)

36. Nonresidential Permit Value ($millions)

37. GDP Growth Rate (percent)

38. CPI Inflation Rate (percent)

39. Prime Rate (percent)

40. 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (percent)

41. 3-Month Treasury Rate (percent)

42. 10-Year Treasury Rate (percent)

43. South Carolina Total Employment (millions)

44. South Carolina Unemployment Rate (percent)

45. PowerPoint presentations are available for download on our COG Web site: www.santeelynchescog.org