1. New York State’s Labor Force Drivers Presented by Kevin Jack, Statewide Labor Market Analyst August 2008

2.  Introduction  Break-Out Groups  Discussion of New York State’s Labor Force Drivers  Summary and Conclusions Presentation Outline

3. N O T E D FUTURIST “The future ain’t what it used to be.” “You can observe a lot by just watching.” Introduction

4. O U R F U T U R E L A B O R F O R C E Introduction

5. Overview: Labor Force Drivers

6. Aging Population Slowing Population Growth More Diversity Higher Skill Requirements The Usual Suspects: Labor Force Drivers

7. Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

8. Labor Force Drivers: More Diversity

9. Labor Force Drivers: Slowing Population Growth Source: NYS Department of Economic Development

10. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements Workers with a bachelor’s degree earn, on average, higher salaries than those with only a high school diploma. These differences have grown over the past 30 years. Source: Current Population Survey

11. Aging Population

12. U.S. Life Expectancy at Birth: 1850-2000 Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics Year Age Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

13. 9,000 baby boomers per day celebrated their 60 th birthday in 2006.

14. Health Care Spending, U.S., 2005-2015 Within a decade, an aging America will spend one of every five dollars on health care. Total health care spending in the U.S. will double to more than $4 trillion by 2015. Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

15. Over the next 15 years, New York’s working age population is expected to grow only by 40,000, with the largest growth among those aged 55-64. The State’s core working-age population (ages 35-54) is projected to decline by more than 600,000. Source: Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research Projected Change in Working-Age Population (Ages 16 to 64), New York State, 2005 - 2020 Age Group Change Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

16. Labor Force Participation Rates, by Age, New York State, 2003-2005 Source: Current Population Survey Labor force participation rates drop significantly after age 55.

17. Slowing Population Growth

18. Annual Rate of Change in New York State Population, 1940-2020 Projected The rate of growth of New York’s population has slowed considerably in the past half century. Labor Force Drivers: Slowing Population Growth

19. Increasing Diversity

20. Total Population, by Nativity, New York State, 1970-2000 Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity Percent Foreign-born 11.6% 13.6% 15.9% 20.4% 18.24 mn 17.56 mn 17.99 mn 18.98 mn Millions Between 1970 and 2000, the percentage of New York State’s population that was foreign born almost doubled.

21. New York State’s population and labor force are becoming increasingly diverse.  Between 1990 and 2006, the state’s foreign-born population increased by more than 1.3 million (+47 percent), while its overall population increased by less than 1.3 million.  Thus, the state’s population would have registered a decline rather than a gain over the 1990-2006 period. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity

22. New York State’s population and labor force are becoming increasingly diverse.  In 2006, 22 percent of the state’s population (4.18 million) was born outside of the U.S. (rank 2 nd to CA in both percent share and total immigrant count).  Top countries of origin (in descending order): Dominican Republic, China, Mexico, Jamaica, and Ecuador.  52% of immigrants have arrived since 1990, while 27 percent of immigrants (aged 5+) speak English “less than well.” Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity

23. Educational Attainment, Population 25 years and Over, by Race/Ethnicity, New York State, 2000 Labor Force Drivers : Increasing Diversity 4-Year College Degree Race/Ethnic Group All Groups 27% Asian/Pacific Islander 41% White, non-Hispanic 32% Black, non-Hispanic 16% Hispanic 11% Source: Census Bureau Among those 25 years and over, much higher proportions of Asian/Pacific Islanders and White, non-Hispanics had at least a 4-year college degree.

24. Increasing Skill Requirements

25. Overview of Skill Levels of the U.S. Labor Force Workers need to continually upgrade their skills if they are to adapt to and take part in a continually changing economy. Education is a key contributor to wage level and wage growth. The “wage premium” paid to workers with a 4-year college degree has increased over the past 30 years. The science and engineering sectors of the U.S. economy remain particular concerns. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements

26. Factors Affecting the Growing “Wage Premium” Effects of increasing retirements. Increased use of advancing technologies – most basic jobs require workers to gain escalating levels of skills and education. Increased global competition -- especially evident in “offshore outsourcing” of lower-skilled IT jobs. A 2002 BLS study estimated that over the course of their working lives, adults with a bachelor’s degree earned almost $1 million more than those with a only a high school diploma; those with a master’s degree, on average, earned $1.3 million more than high school graduates. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements

27. Average Annual Earnings by Education, U.S. Workers with more education, on average, enjoy both higher annual earnings and faster wage growth Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements

28. Percentage Change in First University Degrees Awarded in Engineering and Physical/Biological Sciences, 1987 - 2002 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006 Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements The percentage change in the number of U.S. first university degrees awarded in the engineering and physical/biological sciences fields between 1987 and 2002 lagged that of other countries.

29. First University Degrees Awarded in Engineering and Physical/Biological Sciences and Share of Total Degrees Awarded, 2002 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006 49.5% 10.8% 22.5% 25.5% 32.4% Share of Degrees in Country Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements The share of U.S. first university degrees awarded in the engineering and physical/biological sciences fields is significantly lower than in other countries.

30. Percentage Change in Projected Employment, by Education and Training Level, New York State, 2002 - 2012 Source: New York State Department of Labor

31. New York State’s Labor Force Drivers Presented by Kevin Jack, Statewide Labor Market Analyst Phone: (518) 457-2919 email: Kevin.Jack@labor.state.ny.us