1. UNM BBER Data Users Conference November 13 th, 2014 NMDWS Occupation Projections and Labor Market Information

2. Why Do We Make Projections?

3. -High school and college students, their parents and teachers want to learn about the available jobs in their area, -Career changers, career development specialists and guidance counselors, -State workforce agencies to match employment with education and economic development efforts, -Policymakers to best invest tax dollars to training, -Education and training officials to make decisions about education and training policy, funding, and program offerings, -Other federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market. Who Uses Industry And Occupational Projections?

4. Inputs To The Models -NM QCEW TIME SERIES

5. - NATIONAL QCEW TIME SERIES

6. - NATIONAL VARIABLES Composite Index - 10 Leading Indicators Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing Average Weekly Initial UI Claims Manufacturer's New orders - Consumer Goods Vendor Performance Manufacturer's New Orders - non-Defense capital goods Building Permits - New Housing S & P 500 Money Supply (M2) Consumer Expectations Light Vehicle Sales Institute for Supply Management: US Manufacturing Composite Total Business Inventories CPI - Urban: All items Total Housing Starts - Private PPI - Finished Goods - Except Food Total Non-Farm Employment - All Industry Total Non-Farm Employment - Goods Producing Interest Rate Spread Plus 14 additional variables National variable time series begins 1970

7. - NEW MEXICO VARIABLES New Mexico Population New Mexico Employment NM Median Household Income NM Per Capita Income New Mexico Unemployment Rate NM Building Permits State variable time series begins in 1990

8. Add All The Inputs To Projections Models…. Inputs plus variables go in here... Project-O-Matic 2000 with shift-share; time-series; and OLS regression models. …Industry Projections come out here! Start By Projecting Industry Growth

9. New Mexico Industry Projections, 2012 - 2022 Totals may not sum due to rounding 20122022Number Percent IndustryCodeEstimatedProjectedChange Health Care & Social Assistance62120,000149,49029,49024.6% Educational Services6177,56095,99018,43023.8% Accommodation & Food Services7281,25097,28016,03019.7% Retail Trade4490,980101,92010,93012.0% Administrative & Support Services5640,49048,2907,80019.3% Professional, Scientific, & Technical5452,42057,0404,6208.8% Construction2341,10044,8503,7509.1% Other Services8121,00023,6102,61012.4% Mining2123,99026,4002,42010.1% Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation7113,23015,4602,23016.9% Wholesale Trade4221,42023,2901,8708.7% Transportation & Warehousing4818,86020,4301,5708.3% Real Estate & Rental539,65010,8701,22012.6% Finance & Insurance5220,89021,8901,0004.8% NEC9958,26058,5202600.4% Utilities224,3804,6402505.7% Management of Companies554,9805,1201302.6% Information5113,51013,040-470-3.5% Agriculture1110,90010,280-620-5.7% Government9090,85090,120-730-0.8% Manufacturing3129,65028,470-1,180-4.0% Total All Industries00845,380946,990101,61012.0%

10. Employment Growth, 2012 - 2022

11. Percent Change, 2012 - 2022

12. Occupational Projections! Now That We Have Industry Projections, What’s Next?

13. - Occupational Staffing Pattern The occupational staffing pattern for industries comes from the Occupation Employment Statistics program Survey of about 3,500 employers per year Collected over 3 years Sample based on their industry code Added bonus – wages by occupation

14. Industry projections and staffing pattern data go in here… Project-O-Matic matches the industry control total with the staffing pattern according to the best available model. …And occupational projections come out here! Occupational Projections

15. New Mexico Occupational Projections 2012 - 2022 Totals may not sum due to rounding 20122022 Occupational GroupCodeEstimatedProjected Number Change Percent Change Food Prep & Service3575,96090,99015,03019.8% Personal Care & Service3943,37056,94013,57031.3% Education2549,42060,85011,43023.1% Office Support43124,160133,3709,2107.4% Sales4179,92087,9608,04010.1% Healthcare Practitioners2948,74055,7006,96014.3% Healthcare Support3124,71030,1905,48022.2% Construction & Extraction4757,62062,0704,4507.7% Building & Grounds Cleaning3732,19036,5104,32013.4% Transportation & Material Moving5345,39049,5404,1509.2% Maintenance & Repair4932,91036,3803,47010.5% Management1156,03059,1403,1005.5% Business & Financial1333,28036,1702,8908.7% Protective Services3322,70024,9602,27010.0% Community & Social Service2114,51016,7402,23015.4% Computer & Mathematical1514,70016,7302,03013.8% Production5130,72031,8301,1103.6% Life, Physical & Social Science1913,65014,4307805.7% Architecture & Engineering1721,15021,8106703.1% Arts, Design & Entertainment2710,38010,9005205.0% Legal236,4506,7503004.7% Farm, Fishing & Forestry457,4507,050-400-5.3% Total All Occs00845,380946,990101,61012.0%

16. Top 20 occupations in New Mexico with the greatest projected numerical growth, 2012 - 2022 20122022Number Percent Occupational Title Occupation Code EstimatedProjectedChange Personal Care Aides39902120,50030,95010,45051.0% Combined Food Prep & Servers35302115,72020,0804,37027.8% Retail Sales41203129,07032,8503,78013.0% Waitstaff35303116,41019,2102,80017.0% Secretaries43601420,75023,3802,63012.7% Elementary School Teachers2520218,81011,2402,43027.6% Home Health Aides3110115,3307,7402,42045.4% Registered Nurses29114116,14018,3702,23013.8% General Managers11102115,98017,9701,99012.5% Customer Service Reps43405113,54015,3601,82013.4% Restaurant Cooks3520146,6608,4401,79026.8% Cashiers41201120,17021,8701,7108.5% Janitors37201111,69013,3501,66014.2% Teachers Assistants2590417,83409,4101,58020.2% Food Service Supervisors3510125,6507,0601,41025.0% Bookkeepers43303112,91014,2901,38010.7% Maids & Housekeepers37201210,15011,4701,32013.0% Office Managers4310119,41010,5801,17012.5% Secondary School Teachers2520315,6506,7701,12019.8% Nursing Assistants3110146,5207,5401,01015.5%

17. Top 20 occupations in New Mexico with the greatest number of annual openings, 2012 - 2022 Annual Total Occupational TitleCodeGrowthReplacementAnnual Retail Sales4120313809901,370 Personal Care Aides3990211,0501501,190 Waitstaff3530312807901,070 Cashiers4120111708701,040 Combined Food Prep & Servers3530214406001,040 Customer Service Representatives434051180370550 Registered Nurses291141220310540 Secretaries436014260250510 General Managers111021200300500 Elementary School Teachers252021240190440 Janitors372011170220390 Stockers & Material Handlers53706290250350 Home Health Aides311011240100340 Retail Sales Supervisors411011100250340 Office Supervisors431011120220340 Teacher Assistants259041160180340 Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners372012130200330 Construction Laborers47206180240330 Restaurant Cooks352014180130310 Food Prep & Servers Supervisors351012140160300

18. Share of Industry Total, 2012 to 2022

19. Employment Change By Education,2012 - 2022

20. Job Recovery Based On 2012-2022 Industry Projections

21. Projections Are Based On All Things Being Equal And There Are No Shocks To The Economy… Watch For Direction and Magnitude of Change… Finally…

22. QUESTIONS?

23. Thank You! CONTACT INFORMATION: Bob Richards ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS BUREAU DEPARTMENT OF WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS 505-383-2732 richardr@bls.gov

24. Labor Market Information (LMI) Projections – Occupation Projections – Industry Projections Wages – Occupation Wages – Industry Wages Employment – Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages – Current Employment Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics Unemployment Labor Force

25. LMI in LASER LASER is the system we use to deliver Labor Market Information to the public. – NM contracts with a national firm, Geographic Solutions, to provide this service on the Web. – Approximately every 18 months the system is upgraded to make use of new data sources and new technology. – The most recent upgrade was implemented at the end of July.

26. https://laser.state.nm.us

28. LASER Demonstration Registration New main screen items One-Click to data Data navigation changes – Data by level – NO DATA! – Multi-data searches New profile data – Economic development data

29. THANK YOU! Michelle Doran michelle.doran@state.nm.usmichelle.doran@state.nm.us Robert Richards robertc.richards@state.nm.usrobertc.richards@state.nm.us NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions Economic Research & Analysis Bureau