1. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Short Term Landscape Processes & Understanding of Planning Lecture 4 „Regional Landscape Planning“May 27th, 2005 www.breiling.org/awaji E-mail: breiling@breiling.orgbreiling@breiling.org

2. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Humans and Space

3. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Awaji Shima Region Smaller ScalesLarger Scales

4. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Awaji Shima Region ~ 600 km² ~ 150,000 inhabitants Larger spatial scales –Hyogo ken –Kinki region –Japan –East Asia –Eurasia –World Smaller spatial scales –Municipalities (gun) –Settlement area (cho) –village (machi) –Places –Private units

5. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Relation local, regional, global –Region is characterized By smaller local units By larger global unit –Regional (local, global) state (infa-) structure within the region –Regional (local, global) use Economy Ecology Quality of life

6. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Long-, medium-, short- term processes Processunderstanding of Landscape –Long term > 100 years steps of change –Medium term 1 year changes –Short term < 1 year processes

7. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Long term processes –Geology –Climate –Soil –Water System –Vegetation –Animal Life

8. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Medium term processes –Political administration (cho, machi, sanchome) –Demographic trends –Land use Agriculture Tourism Roads and trafic infrastructures Settlement areas

9. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Short term processes Energy use Greenhouse gases Water use Waste generation Human inputs in agriculture Working hours in agriculture

10. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Landscape & Time Landscape is dynamic –Arena for all processes –Landscape changes continuously State and Use –Longer processes generate the „state“ (Structure Infrastructure) for the „use“ in shorter processes –What is state and what is use depends on our interest Human Understanding of Landscape Processes –Long term processes are perceived as stable/non dynamic –Medium term processes depend on long term processes, generate (infra-) structure for human beings –Short term processes describe human actions within a year

11. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Anticipated Processes: Cyclic Cyclic means that the pattern of change is known and repeated on regular base (can be anticipated) –Decades: harvesting of trees, perhaps climate variations, appearance of Feb. 29th –Years: harvesting of field fruits –Seasons: spring, summer, autumn, winter –Month: salaries –Week: weekdays, weekend –Day: morning, noon, afternoon, evening, night

12. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Anticipated Processes: Non Cyclic Non-cyclic where the pattern of change is known: Growth and Decline –Centuries: waves of earthquakes and vulcanos –Decades: perhaps human induced climate change, life periods such as childhood, youth, young adult, family start, family peak, career peak, agil pensionist, pensionist, plant growth states of higher plants, availability of resources –Years: Investments and loans, –Seasons: extreme (summer) heat, extreme (autumn) thyphoons, extreme snow (winter) or floodings etc. –Month: amount of salaries –Week: visitors of touristic spots on weekdays, weekend –Day: the menue in ALPHA cantine

13. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Non Anticipated Processes: Surprises regarding Natural System Not experienced before –Not included in planning & management Climate change –Impacts of climate changes –Directions of climate changes Acid deposition, forest die-back, fish dying Chemical time bombs –Colloid chemical compounds and pH change Manipulated genes?

14. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Non Anticipated Processes: „Surprises“ regarding Social System Rural depopulation Population decrease in developed world Aged population, perhaps break down of social system New power of kids as consumers –Several old people to support one kid in shrinking societies

15. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Planning and Management Is like riding a bicycle –Foreseen cyclic processes of wheels –Unforeseen but expected disturbances when passing hinders Surprises are: a jump into the water –Planning and management in a changed context The road beneath does no longer exist Learn how to fly or Learn to swim

16. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Awaji Shima Factors of Influence Exogenous factors from outside Endogenous factors from inside Physical, chemical, biotic stressfactors Socio-economic political stressfactors Breiling after Döös 1992

17. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Consequences for our region “Awaji shima” There is not a single threat or challenge But a combination of many factors Difficult to judge the weight of a single factor General rules –Local concern can counter exogenous threats –Exogenous threats are enhanced if ignored locally –We cannot foresee the future, surprises inevitable –More planning better than less planning Surprises become less likely

18. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes The Planning Process

19. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Planning Deals with simplified reality Is a “model of expected truth” Assumes a system of influencing factors –Similar to my figure of stressfactors Neglects everything not considered Then we start circulation in our system and improve performance to a wanted output (and get perhaps an unwanted output)

20. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Short Term Processes Give a current picture of Awaji shima regarding –Energy in agriculture/tourism (Group 1) –Greenhouse gases in agriculture/tourism (Group 2) –Water use in agriculture/tourism (Group 3) –Waste generation and making compost (Group 4) –Land demand of agriculture/tourism (Group 5) –Working hours/occupation in agriculture/tourism (Group 6)

21. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Source: Agricultural Census of Japan Changes in Japanese Agriculture: Rice

22. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Changes in Japanese Agriculture Source: Agricultural Census of Japan Cited by : S. Hasegawa, T. Tabuchi (1995). Well Facilitated Paddy Fields in Japan.

23. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Number of urban households is rapidly increasing Share of Agricultural Households Against Others (in 1000) Number HouseholdsTotalAgriculturalMixed Agricultural Non AgriculturalNo workers 19803582413602131289723311 19853798012101954304004344 1990406709931596325685357 1995439009351379344646902 Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 1998, National Census data

24. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Number of agricultural households decreases Share of Full Time and Part Time Farm Households 1960 to 1995 (in 1000) Number HouseholdsTotalFull timePart time 1960605720783979 1965566512194446 197053428314510 197549536164337 198046616234038 198543766263750 199038355923243 199526514282224 Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 1998, Agricultural Census data

25. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Income in agriculture only small portion Table 3 Income Source of Agricultural Households YearAgricultural Income Non Agricultural Income TotalShare of agricultural income 196536539676148% 1970508885139336% 197511462268341434% 19809523563451521% 198510664437550319% 199011635438660118% 199514425453689521% Source: Asahi Shinbun 1999, Agricultural Census data

26. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Agriculture a female profession? Table 4 Occupation in Agriculture (in 10,000) Farm Occupants in 10.000totalfemaleShare of female t1965115269560% t1970102562861% t197579149362% t198069742962% t198563638861% t199056534060% t199549028658%

27. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Will rural disappear in a non distant future?

28. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Will there be someone working in fields? Source: S. Hasegawa, T. Tabuchi (1995). Well Facilitated Paddy Fields in Japan.

29. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Increase in Machinery Use

30. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Fertilizer Use in Agriculture Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base

31. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Energy Input in Agriculture Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base

32. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Change in Diet Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base

33. E-mail: breiling@breiling.org May 27th, 2005Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Conclusion Structure and Processes change over time Long term processes provide structure for medium term processes Medium term processes provide structure for short term processes Performance of short term processes is relevant for environmental quality Resource flow determines processes