1. 1 Older Workers: evidence from OECD countries Raymond Torres, OECD

2. 2 Outline of presentation A. Demographic trends: challenge and possible impact B. Responding to the challenge through a strategy to promote employment of older workers C. Key policy dilemmas This work is being published in “Live Longer, Work Longer”, based on 21 OECD country reviews

3. 3 A. The ageing challenge r Cohort effect: young cohorts are getting smaller than older cohorts: l In the US and UK, by 2020, the size of the 20-24 age group will be smaller than that of the 60-64 group l In Canada, this will happen in 2015, in France in 2010, and in Italy, Germany and Japan it is happening now! r Longevity effect: irrespective of the cohort effect, people live longer –life expectancy tends to improve 2 years every 10 years

4. 4 Cohort effect: by 2020, less youth than older people in the US…

5. 5 Japan … as well as in the UK

6. 6 Japan The curves will cross in 2015 in Canada…

7. 7 Japan … in 2010 in France, …

8. 8 Japan …and now in Germany, Italy and Japan!

9. 9 Japan

10. 10 Japan

11. 11 Longevity: by 2050, the 65+ will be 40% to 70% of the 20-64 group, compared with less than 30% today

12. 12 Possible impact on growth and living standards r If nothing changes, labour force growth will be cut by half in US and will contract in size in EU and Japan r Economic growth will decelerate r There will be pressure to raise pension and other social spending, while the tax base will shrink => This is unsustainable

13. 13

14. 14 Economic Growth –a simulation based on unchanged policy Average economic growth rate in% 1970-20002000-2030 US2.2 1.7 Canada2.01.3 France2.11.1 Germany2.21.5 Italy2.20.8 Japan2.60.7 UK2.12.0

15. 15 Meeting these challenges will require mobilising more fully the labour resources of older people Percentage of the population who are employed, 2004

16. 16 B. Three key barriers to working at an older age Negative attitudes High labour costs Strict job protection rules EARLY EXIT FROM LABOUR MARKET Financial disincentives Employer barriersWeak employability Public pension rules Formal & informal early retirement schemes Few options for phased retirement Obsolete skills Inadequate help for older jobseekers Unsuitable work conditions & poor health

17. 17 1. Work disincentives r Pension systems and other early retirement schemes penalise work at older ages  Effective age of retirement is below official age in most countries Effective age of retirement and the official age, 1999-2004

18. 18  Ensure greater neutrality in work-retirement decisions  Moving towards actuarial neutrality  Taking account of rising life expectancy Improving incentives to continue working  Reduce early retirement options  Raising pension age  Phasing out formal early retirement schemes  Ensuring that other welfare benefits are not used as early retirement pathways  Beyond neutrality – actively promote participation  Increasing pension rights with age  Part-time pensions  Combining work and pensions

19. 19 Key issues:  Actuarial neutrality raises difficult issues concerning initial age, equity and adequacy of benefits.  Are measures to promote later retirement sufficiently targeted?  How to increase the flexibility of work-retirement decisions while discouraging early retirement?  How to deal with the stock of older people already on long-term benefits? Improving incentives to continue working

20. 20 2. Employer barriers r Hiring and retention rates decline steeply after 50, reflecting:  Negative employer attitudes * Ratio of employees with less than one year of tenure to all employees, 2004. ** Full-time workers only.  Labour costs that rise with age faster than productivity

21. 21 r Tackle negative employer attitudes  Through age discrimination legislation  And through information campaigns and guidelines r Align labour costs closer to productivity  Link earnings more closely to individual performance  Avoid wage subsidies that are simply targeted by age r Focus on enhancing employability of older workers rather than on job protection  Reassess impact of job protection rules on labour mobility and hiring of older workers Changing employer practices

22. 22 Key issues:  Age discrimination legislation is no panacea.  Should wage subsidies go to employers or to older workers via an earnings top-up?  Important role for non-governmental organisations.  How can good practices be promoted among SMEs? Changing employer practices

23. 23 3. Weak employability r Inadequate employment services Percentage of employees in age group who received job-related training over the previous year r Obsolete skills  Training declines sharply with age

24. 24 3. Weak employability  Many older workers report poor working conditions Percentage of employees with unpleasant working conditions* * For between one-half to all of the time, exposed in main job to at least one of the following: vibrations from hand tools or machinery; loud noise; high or low temperatures; breathing in vapours, fumes, dust or dangerous substances; handling dangerous products; and radiation such as X rays, radioactive radiation, welding light or laser beams.

25. 25  Ensure older unemployed are actively seeking work in exchange for better employment services  General exemptions from looking for work should be abolished  More resources should be devoted to helping older job seekers  Encourage greater take-up of training  More flexible courses  Better opportunities for lifelong learning  Improve the work environment  Greater flexibility in work hours  Adapting working conditions Strengthening employability

26. 26 Key issues:  For older workers, the returns to training may not be high, thus need to invest more in lifelong learning. But how to do this?  Who should pay for training and how can the more disadvantaged groups be encouraged to train?  How best to encourage public and private employment agencies to give more priority to helping older jobseekers find jobs?  How can employers – especially SMEs – be encouraged to improve working conditions for both younger and older workers? Strengthening employability

27. 27 THE BOTTOM LINE Older workers must be given better incentives and opportunities to carry on working