1. M ARKOV M ODELS & POS T AGGING Nazife Dimililer 23/10/2012

2. Overview Markov Models Hidden Markov Models POS Tagging

3. Andrei Markov Russian statistician (1856 – 1922) Studied temporal probability models Markov assumption – State t depends only on a bounded subset of State 0:t-1 First-order Markov process – P(State t | State 0:t-1 ) = P(State t | State t-1 ) Second-order Markov process – P(State t | State 0:t-1 ) = P(State t | State t-2:t-1 )

4. 4 Markov Assumption “The future does not depend on the past, given the present.” Sometimes this if called the first-order Markov assumption. second-order assumption would mean that each event depends on the previous two events. – This isn’t really a crucial distinction. – What’s crucial is that there is some limit on how far we are willing to look back.

5. 5 Morkov Models The Markov assumption means that there is only one probability to remember for each event type (e.g., word) to another event type. Plus the probabilities of starting with a particular event. This lets us define a Markov model as: – finite state automaton in which the states represent possible event types(e.g., the different words in our example) the transitions represent the probability of one event type following another. It is easy to depict a Markov model as a graph.

6. What is a (Visible) Markov Model ? Graphical Model (Can be interpreted as Bayesian Net) Circles indicate states Arrows indicate probabilistic dependencies between states State depends only on the previous state “The past is independent of the future given the present.”

7. Markov Model Formalization SSSSS  {S,   S : {s 1 …s N } are the values for the hidden states     are the initial state probabilities  A = {a ij } are the state transition probabilities AAAA

8. Markov chain for weather

9. Markov chain for words

10. Markov chain = “First-order observable Markov Model” a set of states – Q = q 1, q 2 …q N; the state at time t is q t Transition probabilities: – a set of probabilities A = a 01 a 02 …a n1 …a nn. – Each a ij represents the probability of transitioning from state i to state j – The set of these is the transition probability matrix A Distinguished start and end states

11. Markov chain = “First-order observable Markov Model” Markov Assumption Current state only depends on previous state P(q i | q 1 … q i-1 ) = P(q i | q i-1 )

12. Another representation for start state Instead of start state Special initial probability vector  – An initial distribution over probability of start states Constraints:

13. The weather model using 

14. The weather model: specific example

15. Markov chain for weather What is the probability of 4 consecutive warm days? Sequence is warm-warm-warm-warm I.e., state sequence is 3-3-3-3 P(3, 3, 3, 3) =  3 a 33 a 33 a 33 a 33 = 0.2 x (0.6) 3 = 0.0432

16. How about? Hot hot hot hot Cold hot cold hot What does the difference in these probabilities tell you about the real world weather info encoded in the figure?

17. Set of states: Process moves from one state to another generating a sequence of states : Markov chain property: probability of each subsequent state depends only on what was the previous state: To define Markov model, the following probabilities have to be specified: transition probabilities and initial probabilities Markov Models

18. Rain Dry0.70.3 0.20.8 Two states : ‘Rain’ and ‘Dry’. Transition probabilities: P( ‘Rain’|‘Rain’ ) =0.3, P( ‘Dry’|‘Rain’ ) =0.7, P( ‘Rain’|‘Dry’ ) =0.2, P( ‘Dry’|‘Dry’ ) =0.8 Initial probabilities: say P( ‘Rain’ ) =0.4, P( ‘Dry’ ) =0.6. Example of Markov Model

19. By Markov chain property, probability of state sequence can be found by the formula: Suppose we want to calculate a probability of a sequence of states in our example, {‘Dry’,’Dry’,’Rain’,Rain’}. P( {‘Dry’,’Dry’,’Rain’,Rain’} ) = P( ‘Rain’ | ’Rain’ ) P( ‘Rain’ | ’Dry’ ) P( ‘Dry’ | ’Dry’ ) P( ‘Dry’ )= = 0.3*0.2*0.8*0.6 Calculation of sequence probability

20. Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Evidence can be observed, but the state is hidden Three components – Priors (initial state probabilities) – State transition model – Evidence observation model Changes are assumed to be caused by a stationary process – The transition and observation models do not change

21. Hidden Markov models. Set of states: Process moves from one state to another generating a sequence of states : Markov chain property: probability of each subsequent state depends only on what was the previous state: States are not visible, but each state randomly generates one of M observations (or visible states)

22. Hidden Markov models. Model is represented by M=(A, B,  ). To define hidden Markov model, the following probabilities have to be specified: matrix of transition probabilities A=(a ij ), a ij = P(s i | s j ), matrix of observation probabilities B=(b i (v m )), b i (v m ) = P(v m | s i ) and a vector of initial probabilities  =(  i ),  i = P(s i ).

23. What is an HMM? Graphical Model Circles indicate states Arrows indicate probabilistic dependencies between states HMM = Hidden Markov Model

24. What is an HMM? Green circles are hidden states Dependent only on the previous state “The past is independent of the future given the present.”

25. What is an HMM? Purple nodes are observed states Dependent only on their corresponding hidden state

26. HMM Formalism {S, K,  S : {s 1 …s N } are the values for the hidden states K : {k 1 …k M } are the values for the observations SSS KKK S K S K

27. HMM Formalism {S, K,     are the initial state probabilities A = {a ij } are the state transition probabilities B = {b ik } are the observation state probabilities Note : sometimes one uses B = {b ijk } output then depends on previous state / transition as well A B AAA BB SSS KKK S K S K

28. Low High 0.70.30.20.8 Dry Rain 0.6 0.4 Example of Hidden Markov Model

29. Two states : ‘Low’ and ‘High’ atmospheric pressure. Two observations : ‘Rain’ and ‘Dry’. Transition probabilities: P( ‘Low’|‘Low’ ) =0.3, P( ‘High’|‘Low’ ) =0.7, P( ‘Low’|‘High’ ) =0.2, P( ‘High’|‘High’ ) =0.8 Observation probabilities : P( ‘Rain’|‘Low’ ) =0.6, P( ‘Dry’|‘Low’ ) =0.4, P( ‘Rain’|‘High’ ) =0.4, P( ‘Dry’|‘High’ ) =0.3. Initial probabilities: say P( ‘Low’ ) =0.4, P( ‘High’ ) =0.6. Example of Hidden Markov Model

30. Suppose we want to calculate a probability of a sequence of observations in our example, {‘Dry’,’Rain’}. Consider all possible hidden state sequences: P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’} ) = P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’}, {‘Low’,’Low’} ) + P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’}, {‘Low’,’High’} ) + P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’}, {‘High’,’Low’} ) + P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’}, {‘High’,’High’} ) where first term is : P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’}, {‘Low’,’Low’} )= P( {‘Dry’,’Rain’} | {‘Low’,’Low’} ) P( {‘Low’,’Low’} ) = P( ‘Dry’|’Low’ )P( ‘Rain’|’Low’ ) P( ‘Low’ )P( ‘Low’|’Low ) = 0.4*0.4*0.6*0.4*0.3 Calculation of observation sequence probability

31. Evaluation problem. Given the HMM M=(A, B,  ) and the observation sequence O=o 1 o 2... o K, calculate the probability that model M has generated sequence O. Decoding problem. Given the HMM M=(A, B,  ) and the observation sequence O=o 1 o 2... o K, calculate the most likely sequence of hidden states s i that produced this observation sequence O. Learning problem. Given some training observation sequences O=o 1 o 2... o K and general structure of HMM (numbers of hidden and visible states), determine HMM parameters M=(A, B,  ) that best fit training data. O=o 1...o K denotes a sequence of observations o k  { v 1,…,v M }. Main issues using HMMs :

32. HMM for Ice Cream You are a climatologist in the year 2799 Studying global warming You can’t find any records of the weather in Baltimore, MD for summer of 2008 But you find Jason Eisner’s diary Which lists how many ice-creams Jason ate every date that summer Our job: figure out how hot it was

33. Hidden Markov Model For Markov chains, the output symbols are the same as the states. – See hot weather: we’re in state hot But in named-entity or part-of-speech tagging (and speech recognition and other things) – The output symbols are words – But the hidden states are something else Part-of-speech tags Named entity tags So we need an extension! A Hidden Markov Model is an extension of a Markov chain in which the input symbols are not the same as the states. This means we don’t know which state we are in.

34. Hidden Markov Models

35. POS Tagging : Current Performance How many tags are correct? – About 97% currently – But baseline is already 90% Baseline is performance of stupidest possible method Tag every word with its most frequent tag Tag unknown words as nouns 35 Input: the lead paint is unsafe Output: the/Det lead/N paint/N is/V unsafe/Adj

36. HMMs as POS Taggers Introduce Hidden Markov Models for part-of-speech tagging/sequence classification Cover the three fundamental questions of HMMs: – How do we fit the model parameters of an HMM? – Given an HMM, how do we efficiently calculate the likelihood of an observation w? – Given an HMM and an observation w, how do we efficiently calculate the most likely state sequence for w?

37. HMMs We want a model of sequences s and observations w Assumptions: – States are tag n-grams – Usually a dedicated start and end state / word – Tag/state sequence is generated by a markov model – Words are chosen independently, conditioned only on the tag/state – These are totally broken assumptions: why? s1s1 s2s2 snsn w1w1 w2w2 wnwn s0s0

38. 38 Part of speech tagging 8 (ish) traditional parts of speech Noun, verb, adjective, preposition, adverb, article, interjection, pronoun, conjunction, etc This idea has been around for over 2000 years (Dionysius Thrax of Alexandria, c. 100 B.C.) Called: parts-of-speech, lexical category, word classes, morphological classes, lexical tags, POS

39. POS examples Nnoun chair, bandwidth, pacing Vverb study, debate, munch ADJadjpurple, tall, ridiculous ADVadverbunfortunately, slowly, Pprepositionof, by, to PROpronounI, me, mine DETdeterminerthe, a, that, those

40. POS Tagging example WORDtag theDET koalaN put V the DET keysN onP theDET tableN

41. POS Tagging Words often have more than one POS: back – The back door = JJ – On my back = NN – Win the voters back = RB – Promised to back the bill = VB The POS tagging problem is to determine the POS tag for a particular instance of a word. These examples from Dekang Lin

42. POS tagging as a sequence classification task We are given a sentence (an “observation” or “sequence of observations”) – Secretariat is expected to race tomorrow – She promised to back the bill What is the best sequence of tags which corresponds to this sequence of observations? Probabilistic view: – Consider all possible sequences of tags – Out of this universe of sequences, choose the tag sequence which is most probable given the observation sequence of n words w 1 …w n.

43. Getting to HMM We want, out of all sequences of n tags t 1 …t n the single tag sequence such that P(t 1 …t n |w 1 …w n ) is highest. Hat ^ means “our estimate of the best one” Argmax x f(x) means “the x such that f(x) is maximized”

44. Getting to HMM This equation is guaranteed to give us the best tag sequence But how to make it operational? How to compute this value? Intuition of Bayesian classification: – Use Bayes rule to transform into a set of other probabilities that are easier to compute

45. Using Bayes Rule

46. Likelihood and prior n

47. Two kinds of probabilities (1) Tag transition probabilities P(t i |t i-1 ) – Determiners likely to precede adjs and nouns That/DT flight/NN The/DT yellow/JJ hat/NN So we expect P(NN|DT) and P(JJ|DT) to be high But P(DT|JJ) to be: – Compute P(NN|DT) by counting in a labeled corpus:

48. Two kinds of probabilities (2) Word likelihood probabilities p(w i |t i ) – VBZ (3sg Pres verb) likely to be “is” – Compute P(is|VBZ) by counting in a labeled corpus:

49. POS tagging: likelihood and prior n

50. An Example: the verb “race” Secretariat/NNP is/VBZ expected/VBN to/TO race/VB tomorrow/NR People/NNS continue/VB to/TO inquire/VB the/DT reason/NN for/IN the/DT race/NN for/IN outer/JJ space/NN How do we pick the right tag?

51. Disambiguating “race”

52. P(NN|TO) =.00047 P(VB|TO) =.83 P(race|NN) =.00057 P(race|VB) =.00012 P(NR|VB) =.0027 P(NR|NN) =.0012 P(VB|TO)P(NR|VB)P(race|VB) =.00000027 P(NN|TO)P(NR|NN)P(race|NN)=.00000000032 So we (correctly) choose the verb reading

53. Transitions between the hidden states of HMM, showing A probs

54. B observation likelihoods for POS HMM

55. The A matrix for the POS HMM

56. The B matrix for the POS HMM

57. Viterbi intuition: we are looking for the best ‘path’ S1S1 S2S2 S4S4 S3S3 S5S5 Slide from Dekang Lin

58. Viterbi example

59. Motivations and Applications Part-of-speech tagging – The representative put chairs on the table – AT NN VBD NNS IN AT NN – AT JJ NN VBZ IN AT NN Some tags : – AT: article, NN: singular or mass noun, VBD: verb, past tense, NNS: plural noun, IN: preposition, JJ: adjective

60. Markov Models Probabilistic Finite State Automaton Figure 9.1

61. What is the probability of a sequence of states ?

62. Example Fig 9.1

63. The crazy soft drink machine Fig 9.2

64. Probability of {lem,ice} ? Sum over all paths taken through HMM Start in CP – 1 x 0.3 + 0.7 x 0.1 + – 1 x 0.3 + 0.3 x 0.7

65. Inference in an HMM Compute the probability of a given observation sequence Given an observation sequence, compute the most likely hidden state sequence Given an observation sequence and set of possible models, which model most closely fits the data?

66. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Given an observation sequence and a model, compute the probability of the observation sequence Decoding

67. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

68. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

69. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

70. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

71. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

72. Dynamic Programming

73. Forward Procedure oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Special structure gives us an efficient solution using dynamic programming. Intuition: Probability of the first t observations is the same for all possible t+1 length state sequences. Define:

74. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

75. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

76. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

77. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

78. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

79. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

80. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

81. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

82. Dynamic Programming

83. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Backward Procedure Probability of the rest of the states given the first state

85. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Decoding Solution Forward Procedure Backward Procedure Combination

87. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Best State Sequence Find the state sequence that best explains the observations Two approaches – Individually most likely states – Most likely sequence (Viterbi)

88. Best State Sequence (1)

89. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Best State Sequence (2) Find the state sequence that best explains the observations Viterbi algorithm

90. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Viterbi Algorithm The state sequence which maximizes the probability of seeing the observations to time t-1, landing in state j, and seeing the observation at time t x1x1 x t-1 j

91. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Viterbi Algorithm Recursive Computation x1x1 x t-1 xtxt x t+1

92. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Viterbi Algorithm Compute the most likely state sequence by working backwards x1x1 x t-1 xtxt x t+1 xTxT

93. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 HMMs and Bayesian Nets (1) x1x1 x t-1 xtxt x t+1 xTxT

94. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 HMM and Bayesian Nets (2) Conditionally independent of Given Because of d-separation “The past is independent of the future given the present.”

95. Inference in an HMM Compute the probability of a given observation sequence Given an observation sequence, compute the most likely hidden state sequence Given an observation sequence and set of possible models, which model most closely fits the data?

96. Dynamic Programming

97. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Parameter Estimation Given an observation sequence, find the model that is most likely to produce that sequence. No analytic method Given a model and observation sequence, update the model parameters to better fit the observations. A B AAA BBBB

99. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Parameter Estimation A B AAA BBBB Probability of traversing an arc Probability of being in state i

100. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Parameter Estimation A B AAA BBBB Now we can compute the new estimates of the model parameters.

101. Instance of Expectation Maximization We have that We may get stuck in local maximum (or even saddle point) Nevertheless, Baum-Welch usually effective

102. Some Variants So far, ergodic models – All states are connected – Not always wanted Epsilon or null-transitions – Not all states/transitions emit output symbols Parameter tying – Assuming that certain parameters are shared – Reduces the number of parameters that have to be estimated Logical HMMs (Kersting, De Raedt, Raiko) – Working with structured states and observation symbols Working with log probabilities and addition instead of multiplication of probabilities (typically done)

103. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 The Most Important Thing A B AAA BBBB We can use the special structure of this model to do a lot of neat math and solve problems that are otherwise not solvable.